Identification and quantification of link vulnerability in multi-level public transport networks: a passenger perspective

Robust public transport networks are important, since disruptions decrease the public transport accessibility of areas. Despite this importance, the full passenger impacts of public transport network vulnerability have not yet been considered in science and practice. We have developed a methodology to identify the most vulnerable links in the total, multi-level public transport network and to quantify the societal costs of link vulnerability for these identified links. Contrary to traditional single-level network approaches, we consider the integrated, total multi-level PT network in the identification and quantification of link vulnerability, including PT services on other network levels which remain available once a disturbance occurs. We also incorporate both exposure to large, non-recurrent disturbances and the impacts of these disturbances explicitly when identifying and quantifying link vulnerability. This results in complete and realistic insights into the negative accessibility impacts of disturbances. Our methodology is applied to a case study in the Netherlands, using a dataset containing 2.5 years of disturbance information. Our results show that especially crowded links of the light rail/metro network are vulnerable, due to the combination of relatively high disruption exposure and relatively high passenger flows. The proposed methodology allows quantification of robustness benefits of measures, in addition to the costs of these measures. Showing the value of robustness, our work can support and rationalize the decision-making process of public transport operators and authorities regarding the implementation of robustness measures.     

Assimilation of buoy and satellite data in wave forecasts with integral control variables

The quality of numerical wave forecasts can be improved significantly by assimilating wave observations prior to the forecast. In the present study a technique for such assimilation is developed that exploits (a) the efficiency of a limited number of integral control variables, and (b) the effectiveness of variational (model-consistent) assimilation. The formal procedure is independent of the type of control variables and of the wave model (moreover, no adjoint wave model is required). In the present study, integral control variables are chosen to represent large-scale errors in the driving wind fields and uncertainties in the wave model. The assimilation technique is validated with observations of the ERS-1 satellite altimeter and two waverider buoys in two consecutive storms in the Norwegian Sea. The assimilation of the observations reduced the errors in the forecasted significant wave height at the buoy locations typically from 25% to 12%. For low-frequency waves the effect of the assimilation is similarly significant at one buoy location but marginal at the other buoy location.     

SiMoCo: the viability of a prototype platform for a coastal monitoring system: a case study

Coastal zones are among the most productive areas in the world, offering a wide variety of valuable habitats and ecosystems services. Despite the low population density in the Brazilian coastal zone, their distribution is quite concentrated near some coastal cities and state capitals. This concentration places enormous pressure on coastal resources. Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to present an overview on the current status of SiMoCo (Sistema de Monitoramento Costeiro, or Coastal Monitoring System in English) project as a possible early warning system that can be integrated to the Brazilian Coastal Management Information System. This prototype platform provides a real-time access to the composition, organization and simulation of planktonic communities. First, our results demonstrate such a system detecting a target dinoflagellate; second, we apply structural and functional indexes to compare and characterize the ecological networks from two different coastal areas. Conclusions are made about SiMoCo’s feasibility and its possible contribution to the decision-making process within integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) strategies.     

Ballast Water Risk Indication for the North Sea

The ballast water from ships carries marine organisms that have invasive potential. The International Maritime Organization Ballast Water Management Convention (2004) requires ballast water exchange or ballast water management (BWM) systems either onboard or ashore. Ships can be exempted on the basis of risk assessment, when exclusively sailing between specific ports or in an enclosed area. In reply to our questionnaire, the shipping sector argues that the North Sea is ecologically homogeneous and exemptions could therefore be granted. This paper proposes that the North Sea area is, in fact, not homogeneous in terms of hydrographical and biological conditions; therefore, ballast water is a relevant transport mechanism for organisms. Within the North Sea, the short shipping routes indicate a high risk for survival. We examined actual simulation models for ballast water risk assessment in the North Sea, and we have identified the major parameters that need to be included in such models. These models provided a basis; they further need to be combined and adapted for the purpose of evaluating the rationale for an exemption. We concluded that exemptions from BWM are not recommended for the North Sea area. Anticipating the Ballast Water Management Convention, ship owners might do well to study possibilities for installing BWM systems onboard.     

Experiments with an activity-based travel model

Transportation - Experiments are described with an activity-based travel model, estimated on a 7-day activity-diary survey. The first part of the paper describes the model system in its final form,...     

铁路建设项目的独立安全保障及其欧洲案例

随着世界范围内铁路行业的演变发展,越来越多复杂的流程和先进的技术应用到铁路建设项目中。如何管理这些新的技术和流程以保证运营的安全成为更多铁路建设运营方关注的问题。目前,欧洲广泛采用的独立安全保障,其目的就是在铁路系统投入运营之前为政府、监管机构及其他利益相关方提供安全和服务质量的保证,确保供方交付的系统或设备符合相关法规和标准。论述了铁路建设项目中独立保障的意义、要求、方法以及带来的益处,并给出了在欧洲实施的两个具体案例。     

Cyclist target and test setup for evaluation of cyclist-autonomous emergency braking

From 2018, Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) systems dedicated to avoid or mitigate passenger car-tocyclist collisions will be considered in the safety assessment by Euro NCAP. To test such systems, appropriate equipment has been developed in a project called CATS “Cyclist-AEB Testing System”, that has run between April 2014 and August 2016. Moreover, a proposal for the most relevant test scenarios was set up. The objective of the project was to provide proof to Euro NCAP of the relevance of the proposed test scenarios and of the feasibility of practical implementation of the scenarios and test setup. The process regarding the selection, verification and validation of test scenarios is described. The cooperation between 17 industrial partners (car manufacturers and automotive suppliers) in the CATS project has stimulated the harmonization and acceptance of the protocol, target and test setup. The process and intermediate results including the used methodology, have been reviewed by the German Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt) and have been shared on a regular basis during the project with stakeholders in Europe, Japan and the USA. Euro NCAP already indicated to consider the results of the CATS project as the main input to draft the test protocol, including scenarios and target for Cyclist-AEB systems in 2018 and 2020.     

A framework for robustness analysis of road networks for short term variations in supply

There is a growing awareness that road networks, are becoming more and more vulnerable to unforeseen disturbances like incidents and that measures need to be taken in order to make road networks more robust. In order to do this the following questions need to be addressed: How is robustness defined? Against which disturbances should the network be made robust? Which factors determine the robustness of a road network? What is the relationship between robustness, travel times and travel time reliability? Which indicators can be used to quantify robustness? How can these indicators be computed? This paper addresses these questions by developing a consistent framework for robustness in which a definition, terms related to robustness, indicators and an evaluation method are included. By doing this, policy makers and transportation analyst are offered a framework to discuss issues that are related to road network robustness and vulnerability which goes beyond the disconnected definitions, indicators and evaluation methods used so far in literature. Furthermore, the evaluation method that is presented for evaluating the robustness of the road network against short term variations in supply (like incidents) contributes to the problem of designing robust road networks because it has a relatively short computation time and it takes spillback effects and alternative routes into account.     

Modelling the effects of physical–biological interactions and spatial variability in spawning and nursery areas on transport and retention of sardine Sardinops sagax eggs and larvae in the southern Benguela ecosystem

A particle-tracking individual-based model (IBM) coupled with a 3-D hydrodynamic model was used to investigate how spatial variability in spawning and nursery grounds may influence transport and retention of sardine (Sardinops sagax) eggs and larvae in the southern Benguela ecosystem. A temperature-dependent Bělehrádek development model based on laboratory growth data was used to determine the duration of one egg and two larval stages. Successful transport/retention depended on each particle's stage of development rather than its age. Results show that recruitment could occur in two distinct nursery areas on the west and south coasts of South Africa. Three viable recruitment ‘systems’ were identified: two are retention-based (spawned and retained on the west coast (WC–WC) or the south coast (SC–SC)) and one is transport-based (spawned on the south coast and transported to the west coast (SC–WC)). In the WC–WC system, the vertical distribution of eggs influenced retention; at intermediate depths of spawning (25–50 m) eggs avoided both offshore Ekman drift and deep cold water. In the SC–SC system, the area of spawning was important; > 50% of eggs from the eastern Agulhas Bank (EAB) were retained in the south coast nursery grounds, whereas very few eggs were transported there from west of Cape Agulhas. In the SC–WC system, area of spawning was also important; 40% of the eggs spawned on the western Agulhas Bank (WAB) were transported to the west coast nursery ground. Sardine life history strategy could be divided between two main systems: the west coast system (spawning on the WAB and WC, and recruiting to the WC) and the Agulhas Bank system (spawning on the central and eastern Agulhas Bank, and recruiting to the SC).