基于粗糙-模糊软计算的船板线加热成形加工参数预报方法

提出一种基于粗糙-模糊软计算的建模方法,构造一种基于贴近方向修正的高精度模糊推理算法,通过有限元分析(FEA)建立板材线加热成形工艺信息系统,根据粗糙集软计算获取线加热成形的工艺规律,运用模糊推理实现加工参数的快速准确预报。粗糙-模糊建模适用于线加热成形过程的静态或动态模型的构建,为实现该工艺的智能建模与控制提供一种新的技术手段。     

A new approach for improving the performance of freight train timetabling of a single-track railway system

A new approach for improving the performance of freight train timetabling for single-track railways is proposed. Using the idea of a fixed-block signaling system, we develop a matrix representation to express the occupation of inter- and intra-station tracks by trains illustrating the train blocking time diagram in its entirety. Train departure times, dwell times, and unnecessary stopping are adjusted to reduce average train travel time and single train travel time. Conflicts between successive stations and within stations are identified and solved. A fuzzy logic system is further used to adjust the range of train departure times and checks are made to determine whether dwell times and time intervals can be adjusted for passenger and freight trains at congested stations to minimize train waiting times. By combining manual scheduling expertise with the fuzzy inference method, timetable efficiency is significantly improved and becomes more flexible.     

信号控制下交叉口延误计算方法研究

为了对交通信号控制参数进行优化,需要对交叉口延误进行定量的分析与计算。根据信号控制交叉口理论,在以往定时信号延误研究的基础上,基于交叉口一个进口方向的车辆延误分析,针对交叉口各进口方向同时处于非饱和与同时处于过饱和交通状况,分析并推导了交叉口延误公式.并用具体的算例说明了公式的用法。公式表明了交叉口延误与信号控制参数、车辆到达率等参数之间的动态关系,为进一步研究交通信号自适应控制方法和建立交通信号控制参数优化的性能指标函数提供了信息。     

基于FCM的内河一类船长实操考试效能评估

为解决内河一类船长实操考试效能评估问题,提出了一种基于模糊认知图的评价模型(FCMES).在建立影响因素层的不同评价等级基础上,通过问卷调查辨识出了25个影响因素;据专家意见将收集到的定性数据转化为三角模糊数,得到不同的模糊矩阵;利用模糊推理规则的方法聚合各模糊矩阵,再解模糊化,获取邻接矩阵.采取输入端数、输出端数及中心度3个指数的方法,分析FCMES中各因素的重要程度,选出核心变量.利用Matlab实现对FCMES认知图的推理仿真,检验核心变量的准确性.结果表明,绩效评估、评估员素质、模拟器效能、考试流程设计合理性,这4个影响因素对内河一类船长实操考试的效能有重要影响.     

格值命题逻辑系统Lvpl中的推理规则

为描述取小、多重推理、多维推理等实际推理方法，在格值命题逻辑系统Lvpl中，引入了几类相应的推理规则．这些推理规则由语法和语义两部分组成，且在两部分之间存在一定的协调水平．证明了对于适当的语法语义协调水平，当Lvpl的公式集的L型模糊集为同态映射时，它们关于这几类推理规则都在一定程度上封闭.     

多分类转导支持向量机

为了完成分类学习,传统的支持向量机基于带标记信息的经验数据归纳出一个通用的决策函数。而转导支持向量机则不同,它考虑包含测试集在内的所有数据信息并致力于最小化测试样本的分类错误数。在已有的2类分类方法的基础上构造了直接求解多类分类问题的的转导支持向量机。     

神朔铁路钢轨折断风险评估模型研究

钢轨折断是一类严重的线路故障,研究钢轨折断风险评估对保障线路安全具有重要作用。基于模糊推理方法构建钢轨折断风险评估模型,该模型利用设备台账数据、钢轨状态检测数据和维修数据等相关的生产数据,识别钢轨折断致灾因子,量化评定致灾因子状态,建立模糊推理规则库,利用Mamdani模糊推理算法计算钢轨折断风险事件发生的可能性。最后采用神朔铁路神木北至黄羊城区间2013～2015年共3年的实际生产数据对模型的有效性进行验证,结果表明:所建模型可以较好地评估神朔铁路钢轨折断风险事件发生的可能性,对钢轨折断风险管理具有重要指导意义。     

基于改进Petri网的船舶电力系统故障诊断

将Petri网理论用于船舶电力系统故障诊断中,提出了一种改进的Petri网故障诊断模型。在基本Petri网诊断模型的基础上引入模糊推理规则形成模糊Petri网,说明了该方法的模型构建、推理过程及解析方法的表示。利用该方法对船舶电力系统进行故障诊断使推理过程简洁、诊断快速、诊断结果也更科学有效。     

Technical,allocative and cost efficiencies of Chinese ports

This paper reports on empirical studies of the technical, allocative, and cost efficiencies (CEs) of Chinese ports based on the panel data of 16 listed port corporations from 1998 to 2011 by means of Bayesian Inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. An error terms approach is used to resolve the Greene Problem in the estimation of allocative efficiency. The results show that the technical efficiencies have tended to decline in most ports. Inputs to R&D and improving management level are insufficient to offset this decline. Seaports have higher CEs than river ports. Ports with higher container cargo proportion have higher CEs. Ports with more than 50% of shares owned by the State have higher CEs.     

Short-term statistics of ice loads on ship bow frames in floe ice fields: Full-scale measurements in the Antarctic ocean

Ship operation and ice loading in floe ice fields have received considerable interest during recent years. There have been several numerical simulators developed by different institutes which can simulate ship navigation through floe ice fields and estimate ship performance and local ice loads. However, public data obtained from full-scale measurement covering comprehensively ship performance and ice loads under various ice thicknesses, concentrations and floe sizes are rare. The 2018/19 Antarctic voyage of the Polar Supply and Research Vessel (PSRV) S.A. Agulhas II gathered considerable data of the ship in floe ice fields under various thicknesses, concentrations, and floe sizes. The aim of this paper is to carry out statistical analysis to seek suitable probability distributions which adequately fit the measured ice load and therefore suitable to be used as parent distributions for long-term estimation. For this aim, three categories of probability distributions, namely standard distributions, truncated distributions and mixture distributions are tested. It is found that truncated distributions can fit the load data better than standard distributions bounded at the threshold. In addition, mixture distributions are shown to have promising features, which fit the data well and are able to separate distribution components. Subsequentially, the well-performed distributions are used as parent distributions to make long-term load estimations. The estimation results demonstrate that long-term estimations are sensitive to the selection of parent distribution, which addresses the importance of finding correct distribution to model short-term ice loads. The data of ten selected cases will be published for the use of other researchers.