Quasi-dynamic estimation of o–d flows from traffic counts: Formulation,statistical validation and performance analysis on real data

The paper proposes a “quasi-dynamic” framework for estimation of origin–destination (o–d) flow from traffic counts, under the assumption that o–d shares are constant across a reference period, whilst total flows leaving each origin vary for each sub-period within the reference period. The advantage of this approach over conventional within-day dynamic estimators is that of reducing drastically the number of unknowns given the same set of observed time-varying traffic counts. Obviously, the gain in accuracy depends on how realistic is the underlying assumption that total demand levels vary more rapidly over time than o–d shares. Firstly, the paper proposes a theoretical specification of the quasi-dynamic estimator. Subsequently, it proposes empirical and statistical tests to check the quasi-dynamic assumption and then compares the performances of the quasi-dynamic estimator of o–d flows with both classical off-line simultaneous dynamic estimators and on-line recursive Kalman filter-based estimators. Experiments are carried out on the real test site of A4–A23 motorways in North-Eastern Italy. Results confirm the acceptability of the assumption of quasi-dynamic o–d flows, even under the hypothesis of constant distribution shares for the whole day and show that the quasi-dynamic estimator outperforms significantly the simultaneous estimator. Data also suggest that using the quasi-dynamic estimates instead of the simultaneous estimates as historical o–d flows improves significantly the performances of the Kalman filter, which strongly depends of the quality of the seed o–d flows. In addition, it is shown that the aggregation of quasi-dynamic o–d estimates across subsequent time slices represents also the most effective way to obtain o–d estimates for larger time horizons (e.g. hourly estimates). Finally, a validation based on an hold-out sample of link flows (i.e. counts not used as inputs in the o–d estimation/updating process) revealed the quasi-dynamic estimator to be overall more robust and effective with respect to the other tested estimators.     

Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable

Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR.     

RV传动输出机构的刚性误差分析

ＲＶ传动中摆线轮与输出盘之间的输出机构是同三个双曲柄平行四边形机构组成的封闭式单自由度并联机构，由于构件长度制造偏差和铰链运动副中的径向间隙，摆线与输出盘之间会产生相对位置误差，这一误差数值还与构件的弹性有关。作为基础。本仅在刚体这的范畴内研究这一的数据，提出了关于一般四杆铰接机构刚性误差的计算模型，然后应用于平行四边形机构和ＲＶ传动的输出机构，最后给出数值计算例证。     

基于C/S模式的职称评审系统的研究

遵循海军专业技术职务评审工作的要求，对实现海军专业技术职务评审辅助系统中的一些关键技术进行了研究，然后列出了一些实际开发中所遇到的问题并给出了解决方案。     

A review of the effect of a/W ratio on fracture toughness (Ⅲ)——theoretical analysis

In partⅠandⅡof this series, experimental investigation in both EPFM and LEFM had been discussed. In this part, further theoretical analysis is given. The theoretical development of Two Parameter Fracture Mechanics by Hancock etc, has rationalized our experimental results. This method can be applied to engineering practice, and will allow the advantage of enhanced toughness for specimens with low levels of constraint to be taken into account for defect assessment.     

内燃机车管系统切割的优化组合

东风4型内燃机车的管系统由燃油、机油、冷却水、空气制动等子系统组成.其材料规格多,数量多,用经验法切割下料,原材料平均利用率仅为86.5%;采用优化组合方法进行切割,可使原材料平均利用率提高到99.1%.     

45钢冷形变后预多边化处理的研究

本文用电镜观察、拉伸试验、硬度试验、差热分析等方法研究了45钢冷形变后的预多边化处理对随后的回复、再结品过程的影响.结果表明,预多边化处理可推迟回复进程,促进再结晶的进行.最后还探讨了预多边化处理对冷形变强化效果遗传性的影响.     

旋振式内热干燥机的研制

本机器采用多层水平圆式输送料槽,并首次集振动输送与内热干煤为一体,结构紧凑新颖,干燥充分均匀,是较理想的颗粒原料干燥和热清洗设备.     

城市轻轨车辆最佳运行控制方案的研究

本文给出一种利用微型机实现城市轨道车辆最佳运行的控制方案,即在变化的外界条件下确定断电和制动时刻,以指导司机驾驶车辆,实现能耗最小和准时运行.该控制方案的特点是不断地利用实测值并结合估算确定断电和制动时刻,简单易行.     

虹全息白光再现用于玻璃钢筒的无损检测

本文用白光再现的一步彩虹全息对玻璃钢筒进行无损检测,准确地测出了缺陷的位置,并估计了缺陷的大小,与实际情况相符.