灌河口盐、悬沙通量的分解及时空特征

灌河是江苏省北部目前唯一没有在干流建闸的入海河流,拥有广阔的滩涂和优良的航运条件。河口通量是河口治理和河口环境保护中的关键要素。为研究灌河口的盐及悬沙的输运,基于实测资料利用通量分解方法对灌河的盐及悬沙通量的空间分布、大-小潮与潮内的时间变化特征进行了探讨。研究认为：在口门以内的弯曲河段,盐通量在凸岸浅水区一般指向下游,在凹岸深槽处则指向上游。大、小潮期间悬沙通量则基本上为左侧指向上游、右侧指向下游;口外盐通量方向为NNE-NE,而且随径流量大小而稍有改变,口外悬沙通量方向在远岸区域表现为WNW-NNE,近岸G2测点的悬沙通量则指向口门;口门内外盐和悬沙通量的组成均基本以T1、T2和T4为主导,通量组成的总体特征在大、小潮期间基本类似。涨落潮流速最大时刻的悬沙通量不一定与流速方向一致,最大落潮流速时刻由于悬沙浓度可能小于平均值而导致悬沙净输运指向上游。     

Developing management guidelines for oil and gas activities: The louisiana experience

Abstract

Preliminary management guidelines have been derived for oil and gas activities in coastal Louisiana. Derivation of these guidelines was done in terms of the natural function of the coastal ecosystem; this means that all economic activities should be designed to complement natural function as much as possible. The guidelines range in scope from very specific, almost performance standards, to very general admonitions. For example, we have suggested that spoil banks, produced as a result of dredging, should not be higher than the height of the daily tide or roughly 15 cm in coastal Louisiana, and at the other extreme, we have suggested that all dredging should be done with great care during wildlife migrations, spawning, and nesting times.     

Variability in sound power levels: Implications for static and dynamic traffic models

Classically, one mean vehicle representative of each category is used by both static and dynamic traffic noise prediction models. The spectrum associated with this mean vehicle is determined from a linear statistical regression analysis based on measurement campaigns on a track or in situ. However, the variability of individual vehicle emissions can influence predictions and hinder comparison between static and dynamic models. In order to estimate the induced bias, statistical analysis of the distributions of sound power levels emitted by the individual passage of vehicles during 82 measurement campaigns was carried out. The results show that 92% of the residual regression distributions are Gaussian and that standard deviations can reach 3.6 dBA. The value of the proposed correction term for this case study could reach 1.4 dBA for light vehicles and 1.2 dBA for heavy vehicles. This analysis also shows that the variability in sound power levels and thus the corresponding corrections are higher at the lowest speeds that correspond to urban driving conditions.     

Effects of a hovering unmanned aerial vehicle on urban soundscapes perception

Several industry leaders and governmental agencies are currently investigating the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), or ‘drones’ as commonly known, for an ever-growing number of applications from blue light services to parcel delivery. For the specific case of the delivery sector, drones can alleviate road space usage and also lead to reductions in CO₂ and air pollution emissions, compared to traditional diesel-powered vehicles. However, due to their unconventional acoustic characteristics and operational manoeuvres, it is uncertain how communities will respond to drone operations. Noise has been suggested as a major barrier to public acceptance of drone operations in urban areas. In this paper, a series of audio-visual scenarios were created to investigate the effects of drone noise on the reported loudness, annoyance and pleasantness of seven different types of urban soundscapes. In soundscapes highly impacted by road traffic noise, the presence of drone noise lead to small changes in the perceived loudness, annoyance and pleasantness. In soundscapes with reduced road traffic noise, the participants reported a significantly higher perceived loudness and annoyance and a lower pleasantness with the presence of the same drone noise. For instance, the reported annoyance increased from 2.3 ± 0.8 (without drone noise) to 6.8 ± 0.3 (with drone noise), in an 11-point scale (0-not at all, 10-extremely). Based on these results, the concentration of drone operations along flight paths through busy roads might aid in the mitigation of the overall community noise impact caused by drones.     

长江口南北港分汊口附近水域河势变化及航道格局调整

近些年,因新浏河沙头部的淤浅,长江口南北港分汊口河段宝山北航道的通航环境转差。为找到有效解决方案,利用地理信息系统(GIS)分析近10年该河段的河势变化,研究航道格局调整方案。结果表明,该水域河槽容积、深泓线平面及等深线变化比较明显,新浏河沙包收缩变小,新浏河沙头部逐渐淤浅并向航道方向移动的趋势仍在发展,现阶段可通过微调航道格局改善通航环境。     

基于动态二叉树的西江航运干线多梯级船闸链调度

针对西江航运船闸调度以经验管理为主、缺乏有效定量分析现状,提出了基于船闸拥堵系数、船舶日积压损失、航道安全水位各要素于一体的西江航运干线多梯级船闸联合调度链。基于西江航运干线天然的叶脉状分布特点,提出了动态二叉树模型的西江多梯级船闸链的调度算法。结果表明:通过对船舶的合理分流,能够有效缓解船闸滞航减少事故发生率。其模型已应用于航运管理部门,有效地优化了船闸链调度、保障了航运物资安全。     

基于长江北斗CORS系统的PPK定位技术在航道测量中的应用

随着长江干线北斗地基增强系统的建成,其在航道测量中的应用方法与效果有待研究和认证。基于长江干线北斗CORS系统的PPK技术在航道测量中的应用试验以及对试验结果的精度统计,论述该技术在长江航道测量中的应用方法,分析其测量精度。结果表明,利用长江CORS系统基准站进行PPK定位数据解算,定位平面精度可以满足相关规范的要求,而高程精度则不稳定。     

中欧班列乌鲁木齐集结中心规划方案研究

为了解决中欧班列存在的主要问题,保障中欧班列长期健康运行,通过分析中欧班列及既有集结中心存在的问题,结合市场需求,确定中欧班列乌鲁木齐集结中心的功能定位。依托中欧班列发展规划,利用增长率法进行运量预测。从枢纽规划布局、铁路场站功能定位对乌鲁木齐枢纽内的4个站点进行综合比较分析,推荐出合理的选址。并结合功能定位、班列集装箱集结种类进行功能分区和布局规划,形成集铁路区、整车集结仓储、海关监管及综合服务于一体的班列集结中心。研究了贯通式布置方案及尽头式布置方案,通过综合比选推荐运输组织灵活、效率较高的贯通式布置方案。     

Traffic accident risk perception among drivers: a latent variable approach

ABSTRACT

Governments require decision tools to deal with road traffic accidents, a pandemic resulting in millions of deaths around the world. Evidence shows that human factors are one of the major causes of road accidents, and there is much interest in identifying variables that may have an impact on drivers’ perception of risk. To this aim, we design a stated choice experiment with eight hypothetical driving scenarios considering attributes that have been strongly associated with increased accident risks: (i) driving speed, (ii) driving the wrong way in a one-way street, (iii) overtaking on a bend, and (iv) driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs. Data from a sample of survey respondents are used to estimate a hybrid discrete choice model incorporating two latent variables, Driver Concentration and Safe Driving. Our results may contribute to the design of public policies geared to prevent accidents by encouraging safer driving behaviour.     

“一带一路”中老泰铁路运输风险评价及保费研究

随着“一带一路”设施联通建设的不断推进,作为泛亚铁路中线工程的中老泰铁路也是其中重要的一部分。为研究一带一路中老泰铁路货物运输风险以及相关保费计算,本文首先采用层次分析法得到铁路货物运输过程中存在的政治因素、气候因素、运维因素和自然力因素的风险以及不同风险因素组合的权重;其次基于N-K模型对风险进行耦合,并且结合权重计算风险耦合值,根据风险耦合值划分风险区间,不同风险区间对应的附加费率不同,最后利用保费计算公式可以得到保险费用。本文末以中老泰铁路运输水果为例,基于不同风险因素的耦合得到15个风险耦合值,并计算保费,得出不同风险下的保费结果。