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随着中国城市群的快速发展,城际交通出行环境发生了巨大的变化,因此城际出行者也会不断地重建自己的出行习惯,这就要求建立动态模型研究城际出行者出行行为和预测城际交通需求。本文调查出行者在宁杭城际高铁开通前后两个时期的出行信息,并且引入状态依赖变量表征出行者之前选择结果对之后出行选择的影响,建立了基于面板数据的城际出行方式选择动态模型。模型结果表明,基于面板数据的动态模型比传统的基于出行者单次出行数据的模型拥有更高精度。同时本文根据宁杭城际出行背景设置三组政策变化方案预测出行分担率,结果表明,当选择环境发生变化时,传统模型会高估出行方式分担率的变化程度。以上结论能更好地服务于中国城际交通的规划。     

典型加筋板拉伸疲劳试验方法

加筋板是船体结构的主要组成部分,针对船用加筋板试件在疲劳试验过程中连接段先于考核段破坏的技术问题,文章开展了加筋板拉伸疲劳试验技术研究,提出了加筋板拉伸疲劳试件设计方法。在此基础上,依据疲劳累积损伤理论,结合声发射动态裂纹检测技术,建立了基于声发射技术的疲劳累积损伤试验方法。通过加筋板拉伸疲劳试验验证了该方法的可行性和适用性,实现了疲劳试验的考核目标,可为以后类似结构疲劳试验提供方法参考。     

迈向可持续的公共交通之路——首尔公交改革的经验与成就(续)

2004年7月1日,首尔市政府在全市开展了深刻的针对公交系统的整合性改革,这一举措成为迈向可持续性城市交通的重要一步。这次公交改革成功实施的关键在于它将管理机构、创新技术、基础设施的建设以及公交的组织和运营融为一体。经过一系列改革之后,首尔的交通面貌焕然一新:通过进一步协调交通运输容量和需求之间的矛盾,提高了运营效率,增加了乘客人数,使公交运营商的收入自启动集成收费系统之后得到增加。     

基于TruckSim的客车行驶安全因素研究

一些行驶的车辆在一些紧急情况下可能会因为驾驶员对路面情况判断失误而导致交通事故的发生,客车相对于一些小型车辆来说重心高,稳定性相对较低,在路面上行驶安全性也相对较低,可能会出现侧滑、甩尾现象。文章研究客车行驶的稳定性,通过TruckSim软件对客车进行建模仿真,得到客车在不同道路条件路面上行驶时的试验性能曲线,分析影响客车的安全因素,有助于帮助驾驶员在安全地行驶速度下运行,提高客车安全性。     

船体板格极限强度数值计算影响因素及敏感分析

船体板格极限强度的有限元计算方法应用广泛,但其计算方法具有一定的不稳定性,计算结果受多种因素的影响.本文针对船体板格有限元计算方法的不稳定性进行研究,通过将有限元计算结果与其他学者的研究成果进行对比,验证本文所采用的有限元方法的可靠性,然后针对板格材料、初始缺陷、网格密度、边界条件等几种因素的敏感性进行具体研究,发现理想应力应变关系会使得结果偏于危险.网格形状和网格密度对于结果均有影响,边界条件对于有限元结果有影响,最大误差在7.2%,并且模型3会使得结果偏于危险.初始缺陷是一敏感因素,最大误差在20%,因此需要根据实际缺陷选取合适的屈曲模态和比例因子.     

面元法预估导管螺旋桨水动力性能的一种新方法

采用一种新的方法预估导管螺旋桨的水动力性能;导管和螺旋桨均采用基于速度势的面元法,它们间的影响通过相互的诱导速度势数值迭代来体现．与诱导速度体现相互影响的方法相比,本文方法可节省编程及计算时间;对JD系列导管螺旋桨的计算与实验结果的比较表明,该方法可以有效地预估导管螺旋桨的水动力性能．     

单侧边载作用下黏土中单桩负摩阻力特性模型试验研究

桩基础边载作用会在桩周产生负摩阻力,进而危及软土地区高桩码头、人工岛、路基等工程的安全。通过开展黏土中单侧堆载作用下单桩室内模型试验,测定桩身应变、桩顶沉降和水平位移,研究边载作用距离和桩型对桩身轴力及弯矩的影响,探讨桩身负摩阻力、桩顶沉降和水平位移在黏土固结过程中的时间效应。结果表明:边载作用距离对桩身最大轴力和最大弯矩有较大影响;翼板桩会增加桩身最大轴力和最大弯矩;负摩阻力和有效应力系数随时间增长且增速趋缓;增加边载作用距离和添加翼板都会提升桩身中性点位置,在这两组试验中均提升了8.33%。     

Cost-effectiveness of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from High-Speed Rail and urban transportation projects in California

A rising trend in state and federal transportation finance is to invest capital dollars into projects which reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, a key metric for comparing projects, the cost-effectiveness of GHG emissions reductions, is highly dependent on the cost-benefit methodology employed in the analysis. Our analysis comparing California High-Speed Rail and three urban transportation projects shows how four different accounting framings bring wide variations in cost per metric tonne of GHG emissions reduced. In our analysis, life-cycle GHG emissions are joined with full cost accounting to better understand the benefits of cap-and-trade investments. Considering only public subsidy for capital, none of the projects appear to be a cost-effective means to reduce GHG emissions (i.e., relative to the current price of GHG emissions in California’s cap-and-trade program at $12.21 per tonne). However, after adjusting for the change in private costs users incur when switching from the counterfactual mode (automobile or aircraft) to the mode enabled by the project, all investments appear to reduce GHG emissions at a net savings to the public. Policy and decision-makers who consider only the capital cost of new transportation projects can be expected to incorrectly assess alternatives and indirect benefits (i.e., how travelers adapt to the new mass transit alternative) should be included in decision-making processes.     

Analyzing urban bus service reliability at the stop, route, and network levels

Improving the reliability of bus service has the potential to increase the attractiveness of public transit to current and prospective riders. An understanding of service reliability is necessary to develop strategies that help transit agencies provide better services. However, few studies have been conducted analyzing bus reliability in the metropolis of China. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of service reliability based on bus operational characteristics in Beijing. Three performance parameters, punctuality index based on routes (PIR), deviation index based on stops (DIS), and evenness index based on stops (EIS), are proposed for the evaluation of bus service reliability. Reliability involves routes, stops, punctuality, deviation, and evenness. The relationship among the three parameters is discussed using a numerical example. Subsequently, through a sampling survey of bus lines in Beijing, service reliability at the stop, route, and network levels are estimated. The effects of route length, headway, the distance from the stop to the origin terminal, and the use of exclusive bus lanes are also analyzed. The results indicate low service reliability for buses in Beijing and a high correlation between service reliability and route length, headway, distance from the stop to the origin terminal, and the provision of exclusive bus lanes.     

CCS船体结构板格屈曲强度直接计算评估方法

介绍了中国船级社(CCS)有关指南文件中船体结构屈曲强度校核的直接计算方法,并与国外船级社的计算法作了比较。另外,还介绍了开发的相应应用软件系统。