Dynamic demand estimation and prediction for traffic urban networks adopting new data sources

Nowadays, new mobility information can be derived from advanced traffic surveillance systems that collect updated traffic measurements, both in fixed locations and over specific corridors or paths. Such recent technological developments point to challenging and promising opportunities that academics and practitioners have only partially explored so far.The paper looks at some of these opportunities within the Dynamic Demand Estimation problem (DDEP). At first, data heterogeneity, accounting for different sets of data providing a wide spatial coverage, has been investigated for the benefit of off-line demand estimation. In an attempt to mimic the current urban networks monitoring, examples of complex real case applications are being reported where route travel times and route choice probabilities from probe vehicles are exploited together with common link traffic measurements.Subsequently, on-line detection of non-recurrent conditions is being recorded, adopting a sequential approach based on an extension of the Kalman Filter theory called Local Ensemble Transformed Kalman Filter (LETKF).Both the off-line and the on-line investigations adopt a simulation approach capable of capturing the highly nonlinear dependence between the travel demand and the traffic measurements through the use of dynamic traffic assignment models. Consequently, the possibility of using collected traffic information is enhanced, thus overcoming most of the limitations of current DDEP approaches found in the literature.     

基于灰色残差GM（1，1）模型的道路交通量预测的研究

道路交通体系是一个多因素、多层次、多目标的复杂系统。其中交通量信息系统具有明显的层次复杂性,结构关系的模糊性,动态变化的随机性,指标数据的不完全和不确定性。由于技术方法、人为因素、自然环境变化的影响,造成各种数据误差、短缺甚至虚假现象,系统的作用机制不明确,系统的状态、结构、边界关系难以精确描述,属于典型的灰色系统。在作量化、模型化、实体化研究时,能作为反映系统主要动态特征的数据是很少的。由于环境对系统的干扰,系统信息中原始数据序列往往呈现离乱情况,离乱数列即为灰色数列或称灰色过程,灰色理论利用那些较少的或不确切的表示系统行为特征的原始数据序列作生成变换后建立微分方程,对灰色过程建立的模型称为灰色模型（Greymodel）,简称GM模型。本文从理论上介绍了GM（1,1）模型和灰色残差GM（1,1）模型建立的一般过程,然后将其应用于交通量预测的实际例子中。预测结果表明,该方法是可行的。     

快速老化小鼠的学习记忆缺陷及其生化机制

目的用快速老化小鼠(SAMP8)模拟老年痴呆,观察其学习记忆能力,并探讨其学习记忆能力下降的可能机制。方法采用10月龄SAMP8,并用同龄抗快速老化小鼠(SAMR1)作为正常对照。用水迷路检测近记忆以及空间学习记忆能力。用生物化学方法检测大脑皮层线粒体膜电位和ATP酶活力,观察线粒体功能;检测皮层和海马胆碱乙酰基转移酶(ChAT)和乙酰胆碱酯酶(AChE)的活力,观察中枢胆碱能神经功能;检测血清超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)活力和丙二醛(MDA)含量,观察其全身性氧化应激状况。结果与SAMR1相比,SAMP8出现明显的衰老体征,其近记忆和空间学习记忆能力明显减弱,具有衰老和痴呆特征;皮层线粒体膜电位和ATP酶活力显著降低,海马ChAT活力显著下降,AChE活力显著升高,血清SOD活力稍有增高。结论SAMP8可以很好地模拟老年痴呆,其机制包括大脑皮层线粒体功能降低、海马胆碱能神经功能下降以及氧化应激等。     

Effect of ABCA1-V771M polymorphism on plasma lipid levels and its relationship with coronary atherosclerotic heart disease

Objective To explore the risk association of ABCA1-V771M polymorphism with coronary heart disease (CHD) in Hart nationality in Northwest of China. Methods With case-control study, ABCA1-V771M polymorphism was detected in 204 unrelated Hart nationality people in Northwest of China, and all the subjects by coronary angiography were grouped into 106 cases and 98 controls. The genotypes and alleles frequency distribution of ABCA1-V771M polymorphisms were analyzed by PCR-RFLP analysis, and the clinical statistics of serum lipids were compared and its effects of ABCA1-V771M polymorphism on the plasma lipid levels and coronary atherosclerotic heart disease were analyzed. Results The genotypic frequencies of ABCA1-V771M polymorphism matched well under Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (P>0.05), V and M allelic frequencies were 33.3% and 66.7%. In comparison with VV VM genotype carriers, MM genotypes carriers had much lower plasma levels of HDL-C (P<0. 001) and much higher plasma levels of TG (P<0. 05). M allelic frequency in CHD group was significantly higher than V allelic frequency (P<0. 05). M allele was related with more severity of atherosclerosis in the coronary artery than V allele (P<0.05). However, there was no obvious difference in the incidence of AMI among carriers with three genotypes of ABCA1-V771M polymorphism (P>0.05). Conclusion ABCA1-V771M polymorphism was not only associated with the plasma levels of HDL-C and TG, but also related to the susceptibility and severity of coronary atheroselerotic heart disease. Moreover, M771 allele appeared to be atherogenie among Han population in Northwest of China.     

一级公路交叉口设计中的交通安全问题及对策

一级干线公路由于开口较多,不可避免地存在较多的交通安全问题.文章以湖北荆监一级公路为例,针对交叉口设计中的交通安全典型问题,提出了改善方法及相关对策.     

改进不等时距GM模型在施工控制中的应用

刚构桥施工过程中应力变化复杂,影响因素多,较难预测把握应力发展趋势,实测应力缺失时,单一使用GM(1,1)模型预测精度低,对原始应力数据要求苛刻.文章改进了不等时距GM(1,1)模型,结合罗天乐特大桥工程进行验证,结果表明,改进不等时距GM(1,1)模型在刚构桥施工应力预测中具有较好的适用性和较高的预测精度.     

基于ASP.NET的B/S架构的软件在Windows7系统下的部署

本文重点研究了对于B/S架构的软件在Windows7系统下部署时应该采用的一系列方法及在部署时遇到的一系列问题的解决方案。文中分析了利用ASP.NET开发的B/S架构的软件的优点并在此基础上介绍了软件部署的流程。本文在分析过程中结合具体实例提出了部署中一些常见问题的解决方案。     

姜黄素促进RAW264.7源性M1巨噬细胞向替代激活M2表型极化

目的观察姜黄素对LPS和IFNγ诱导的RAW264.7巨噬细胞(M1)极化的影响及机制。方法不同浓度姜黄素(6.25、12.5、25μmol/L)干预LPS和IFNγ诱导的RAW264.7巨噬细胞(M1)12h,同时再加入20μmol/L GW9662与25μmol/L姜黄素共同干预LPS和IFNγ诱导的RAW264.7巨噬细胞(M1)12h,采用Real-time PCR、ELISA及Western blot方法检测IL-1β、IL-6和M2表型标志分子KLF4、FIZZ1、MGL1、PPARγ的表达,及阻断PPARγ后KLF4和FIZZ1的表达。结果不同浓度姜黄素均能上调LPS和IFNγ诱导的RAW264.7巨噬细胞(M1)的M2标志分子的表达,并且抑制炎症因子IL-1β和IL-6的分泌;阻断PPARγ后,RAW264.7巨噬细胞源性M1表型巨噬细胞表达M2标志分子下调。结论姜黄素通过活化PPARγ促进LPS和IFNγ诱导的RAW264.7巨噬细胞(M1)向M2表型极化。     

转化生长因子-β_1抗体对人翼状胬肉成纤维细胞增殖及TGF-β_1-Smad4信号转导通路的影响

目的探讨转化生长因子-β1(TGF-β1)抗体对体外培养的翼状胬肉成纤维细胞增殖的抑制作用及对TGF-β1-Smad4信号转导通路的影响,评估其在翼状胬肉发病机制中的作用。方法人翼状胬肉切除后,体外培养其成纤维细胞并传至4~6代时,分别用6.25、12.5、25、50mg/mL TGF-β1抗体处理24、48、72h,采用MTT法检测成纤维细胞的生长抑制率,RT-PCR检测TGF-β1mRNA表达,Western blot检测Smad4蛋白的表达。所得数据采用SPSS19.0统计软件处理。结果 TGF-β1抗体可不同程度抑制成纤维细胞的增殖;TGF-β1抗体处理组TGF-β1mRNA的表达明显低于对照组,且不同浓度组间差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),随着浓度增大和作用时间延长,TGF-β1抗体处理组TGF-β1 mRNA的表达量呈逐渐降低趋势。不同浓度的TGF-β1抗体对Smad4的蛋白表达具有明显增强作用,且各组间差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论 TGF-β1抗体对人翼状胬肉体外培养的成纤维细胞生长具有明显抑制作用,其可能通过调节TGF-β1和Smad4的表达而实现。     

吸烟和β3-肾上腺素能受体基因Trp64Arg、锰超氧化物歧化酶9Ala/Val基因多态性与非酒精性脂肪性肝病的相关性

目的探讨吸烟和β3-肾上腺素能受体(β3-AR))基因Trp64Arg、锰超氧化物歧化酶9Ala/Val(MnSOD9Ala/Val)基因多态性与非酒精性脂肪性肝病(NAFLD)发病之间的关系。方法采用病例-对照研究的方法,以720例NAFLD患者及720例健康对照者的外周血白细胞为样本,采用聚合酶链反应(PCR)技术分析β3-AR基因Trp64Arg和MnSOD9Ala/Val基因多态性。结果β3-AR基因Trp64Arg(A/A)基因型和MnSOD9Ala/Val(V/V)基因型频率分布分别为39.4%、71.7%(病例组)和21.1%、43.3%(对照组),差异有统计学意义(P<0.01;P<0.01)。Trp64Arg(A/A)基因型者患NAFLD的风险显著增加(OR=2.434,95%CI=1.816~4.075)。MnSOD9Ala/Val(V/V)基因型者患NAFLD的风险也显著增加(OR=3.308,95%CI=1.913~4.509)。基因突变的协同分析发现,Trp64Arg(A/A)/MnSOD9Ala/Val(V/V)基因型者在NAFLD组和对照组中的分布频率分别为32.8%和6.5%,差异有统计学意义(P<0.01)。Trp64Arg(A/A)/MnSOD9Ala/Val(V/V)基因型者患NAFLD的风险显著增加(OR=9.753,95%CI=4.292~12.426)。病例组的吸烟率显著高于对照组(OR=2.623,95%CI=1.425~4.957),Trp64Arg(A/A)/MnSOD9Ala/Val(V/V)基因型与吸烟有协同作用(OR=33.764,95%CI=18.907~61.582)。结论 Trp64Arg(A/A)/MnSOD9Ala/Val(V/V)基因型和吸烟是NAFLD的易患因素,三者的联合在NAFLD的发生中起着协同的作用。