How to best address aviation’s full climate impact from an economic policy point of view? – Main results from AviClim research project

The interdisciplinary research project AviClim (Including Aviation in International Protocols for Climate Protection) has explored the feasibility for including aviation’s full climate impact, i.e., both long-lived CO₂ and short-lived non-CO₂ effects, in international protocols for climate protection and has investigated the economic impacts. Short-lived non-CO₂ effects of aviation are NO_x emissions, H₂O emissions or contrail cirrus, for instance.Four geopolitical scenarios have been designed which differ concerning the level of international support for climate protecting measures. These scenarios have been combined alternatively with an emissions trading scheme on CO₂ and non-CO₂ species, a climate tax and a NO_x emission charge combined with CO₂ trading and operational measures (such as lower flight altitudes). Modelling results indicate that a global emissions trading scheme for both CO₂ and non-CO₂ emissions would be the best solution from an economic and environmental point of view. Costs and impacts on competition could be kept at a relatively moderate level and effects on employment are moderate, too. At the same time, environmental benefits are noticeable.     

调车监控系统仿真平台车列模拟模块的实现

将车列的相关操作进行直观地表现,是站场车列模拟模块的重要功能.本文将讲述无线调车机车信号和监控系统仿真与测试平台中车列模拟模块的相关实现方法.     

三相交流电动转辙机模拟试验盘工作原理

结合工程项目实际,介绍信号系统三相交流电动转辙机模拟操控试验盘的工作原理。该模拟电路动作部分实现了继电器动作模拟,表示部分基本实现了由并联电路向串联电路的转换。     

运输网络最大流的Petri网图仿真算法

现代化的综合交通体系和智能交通系统要求必须首先解决运输需求分析和运输网络分析的技术问题。Petri网理论可以被引进到运输网络理论中 ,用来解决最基本也是应用最广泛的最大流问题。首先介绍了 Petri网与有向网络的 Petri网模型 ;然后 ,给出有向网络最大流的求最短路法 ;在此基础上 ,采用 Petri网论法和计算机图形仿真法相结合的方法 ,求解运输网络最大流。即用Petri网图仿真器把无向运输网络转化为有向运输网络 ,然后求有向运输网络 G的对偶网络 DG,再用 Petri网图仿真器将对偶网络 DG转换成 Petri图模型 ,并自动求得 DG最短路 (原网络 G的最小割容量 ) ,即运输网络最大流。该方法比现有方法更方便 ,速度更快 ,而且形象、直观 ,是更实用的方法和手段     

Economic and emissions impacts of renewable fuel goals for aviation in the US

The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has a goal that one billion gallons of renewable jet fuel is consumed by the US aviation industry each year from 2018. We examine the economic and emissions impacts of this goal using renewable fuel produced from a Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) process from renewable oils. Our approach employs an economy-wide model of economic activity and energy systems and a detailed partial equilibrium model of the aviation industry. If soybean oil is used as a feedstock, we find that meeting the aviation biofuel goal in 2020 will require an implicit subsidy from airlines to biofuel producers of $2.69 per gallon of renewable jet fuel. If the aviation goal can be met by fuel from oilseed rotation crops grown on otherwise fallow land, the implicit subsidy is $0.35 per gallon of renewable jet fuel. As commercial aviation biofuel consumption represents less than 2% of total fuel used by this industry, the goal has a small impact on the average price of jet fuel and carbon dioxide emissions. We also find that, under the pathways we examine, the cost per tonne of CO₂ abated due to aviation biofuels is between $50 and $400.     

Environmental assessment of electrification of road transport in Norway: Scenarios and impacts

The study develops scenarios regarding the introduction of electric vehicles to the passenger vehicle fleet of Norway to reach the 2020 Norwegian greenhouse gas reduction target and a more extreme target to limit global temperature increase to two degrees. A process-based life cycle assessment approach is integrated with a temporally variable inventory model to evaluate the environmental impacts of these scenarios. We find that greenhouse gases in the reference scenario increase by 10% in 2020 in comparison to 2012; while for the more intensive improvements in conventional vehicles, this increase is reduced to 2%. For electric vehicles deployment scenarios, although the fleet share will reduce the tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions by 8–26%, with the upper end representing the two-degree reduction target, emissions reductions over the entire life cycle are only 3–15%. Electric vehicles also reduce emissions of NO_x, SO₂ and particulates reducing acidification, smog formation and particulate formation impacts, however, with addition of large numbers of electric vehicles significant trade-offs in toxicity impacts are found.     

Changes in the design and operational wind due to climate change at the Indian offshore sites

The increasing global warming is most likely to affect the magnitude and pattern of wind at a regional level and such an effect may or not follow the trend predicted at the global scale. Regional level exercises are therefore necessary while making decisions related to engineering infrastructure. In this paper an attempt is made to know the extent of change in design as well as operational wind conditions at two offshore locations along the west coast of India. The design wind speeds with return periods of 10, 50 and 100 years derived for two 30-year time slices in the past and future are compared. In two separate exercises the past and future wind at the local level is simulated by empirical downscaling as well as by interpolation of the general circulation model (GCM) output. Both sets of past and future data are fitted to the Generalized Pareto as well as Weibull distributions using the peak over threshold method to extract long term wind speeds with a specified return. It is noticed that at the given locations the operational and design wind may undergo an increase of around 11%–14% when no downscaling is adopted and 14%–17% when the GCM data are downscaled. Although these figures may suffer from a certain level of statistical uncertainty the study points out to take a relook into the safety margins kept in the design and operation of ocean structures in the light of global warming.     

Risk of increasing temperature due to climate change on high-speed rail network in Spain

With more than 3,200 km of track, the Spanish high-speed rail network is the longest network in Europe and the second largest in the world after China. Due to its geographical location in southern Europe, the entire network is exposed to periods of elevated temperatures that can cause disturbances and severe disruptions such as rail deformation, or in the worst case, lateral track buckling. In this study, the vulnerability of the current Spanish high-speed rail network is analysed in terms of track buckling failures with a Monte Carlo simulation. Downscaled temperature projections from a range of Global Climate Models (GCMs), under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), were forced in a buckling model and particularized for different segments of the network. With that, the proposed methodology provides the number of rail buckles expected per year by assuming current maintenance standards and procedures. The result reveals significant increase in the occurrence of buckling events for future years, mainly in the central and southern areas of mainland Spain. However, relevant variations are found in different climates and time horizon scenarios in Spain. The anticipated buckling occurrences highlight the vulnerability of the Spanish rail network in the context of global warming scenarios. Overall, the proposed methodology is designed to be applicable in large-scale railway networks to identify potential buckling sites for the purpose of understanding and predicting their behaviour.     

Effect of climate change on asphalt binder selection for road construction in Italy

This work explores the influence of climate changes on the proper selection of asphalt binder for pavement construction purposes, according to the Performance Grade (PG) defined in the SUPERPAVE specifications. Based on temperature data at national level, it is possible to obtain thematic maps for the whole Italian territory, which is extremely useful for technicians and pavement engineers for selection of asphalt binder for road construction purposes. Furthermore, the statistical significant temperature trends’ knowledge enables deriving thematic maps which allows to include the effects of climate change in the asphalt binder design. It is argued that, due to climate change, the binders to be selected may be different from those commonly selected at the design stage of the infrastructure, since likely higher temperature determine more demanding constraints. The comparison among the PG grades necessary for covering the needs for construction in the different regions of Italy also call for highly performing binders, such as those obtained via specific modification with polymers. This will also imply the need for even more performing materials, in terms of mechanical properties and durability, to be used for modification of neat asphalt as well as the need for defining new specification and testing methods, specifically valid for these modified materials.     

Transport discussion amidst climate challenges: Analysing student,media, and expert framings through the environmental protection process model

The article examines media representations and views of experts and high school students on the future of transport with a particular focus on its implications for emissions of greenhouse gases. Focusing on Finland, it explores which key features and boundary conditions related to the climate policies of transport are framed as important or negligible. The analysis was based on the comprehensive environmental protection process model. Results show that the need for radical change was recognised both by students and experts but at the same time, rather cynical views regarding the possibilities to achieve these changes were presented by the media, experts, and students. Long-term impacts and visions were underrepresented in discussions, with the focus being mainly on short-term concerns and incremental changes.