Pathways for GHG emission reduction in Norwegian road transport sector: Perspective on consumption of passenger car transport and electricity mix

Electrification of the transport sector is considered as a solution to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions and achieve sustainable mobility. Specifically in the case of electrification of passenger vehicles, various industrial and policy initiatives have been introduced. In this article, we present and assess three approaches – pro-technology, pro-simplicity and mix (of the aforementioned approaches) – to achieve target emission reductions in the Norwegian road transport sector. We also assess the influence of including ‘Guarantee of Origin’ certification for the electricity production in accounting for typical consumption electricity mix in Norway.Results show that for the same reductions in tail-pipe GHG emissions, pro-technology, pro-simplicity, and the mix scenario offer 22%, 29% and 28% reduction in the life cycle GHG emissions respectively, compared to the reference scenario in year 2020. However, the pro-simplicity scenario requires 25% reduction in vehicle-km driven compared to the pro-technology scenario, which provides the same passenger car mobility as in the reference case. When the GHG intensity of the electricity mix used to power EVs is corrected to account for actual consumption mix in Norway, a 13% reduction in the net GHG benefit of pro-technology scenario is observed.     

Empirical distributions of vehicle use and fuel efficiency across space: Implications of asymmetry for measuring policy incidence

Concerns about local air pollution and climate change have prompted all levels of government to consider a variety of policies to reduce vehicle dependence and fuel consumption, as the transportation sector is one of the largest sources of local and global emissions. Because many of the policy options under consideration are market-based (e.g., gasoline tax, carbon tax), it is important to consider how the impacts would vary across space and affect different subpopulations. Evaluating incidence is relevant for both the expected costs and benefits of a particular policy, however detailed data on vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) and fuel consumption allowing for the distributions of these variables to be estimated at a fine geographic scale is rarely available. This paper uses a unique dataset with more than 20 million vehicles in California to derive estimates of VMT and fuel consumption in order to examine the spatial distribution of impacts for an increase in the price of gasoline as well as the consequences of using different statistics for policy evaluation. Results show that VMT and fuel consumption distributions are not symmetrically distributed and vary significantly within transportation planning regions. To understand the potential implications of this asymmetry, we do a back of the envelope comparison using the mean and mode of the VMT or fuel consumption distribution for policy analysis. We find that assuming a symmetric distribution can lead to a divergence of 20–40% from the estimates based on the empirical distribution. Our results, therefore, introduce caution in interpreting the incidence of policies targeting the transportation sector based on averages.     

GHG emissions in daily travel and long-distance travel in Germany – Social and spatial correlates

There is considerable research on the climate effects of daily travel, including research on the spatio-temporal and socioeconomic impact factors of daily travel and associated climate change effects. However, this is less true with respect to long-distance trips. This paper uses national transport survey data from Germany to point out differences in GHG emissions related to demographic, socioeconomic and spatial characteristics for daily and long-distance travel. Daily travel and long-distance travel are investigated simultaneously and separately using Logit and OLS regressions. The results show that transport-related GHG emissions from long-distance trips and daily trips are affected by sociodemographics in largely the same direction. In contrast, spatial attributes, like municipality size or density grade of the region, show a different picture. Per capita emissions in rural and suburban areas are higher for daily trips, but lower for long-distance trips than emissions caused by urban residents. While we cannot rule out the possibility of residential self-selection, our findings challenge the idea that compact urban development may help reduce CO₂ emissions once long-distance trips are taken into account.     

Analysis of a proposed mechanism for carbon-neutral growth in international aviation

In October 2013, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) announced that it would put in place a market-based mechanism to cap net greenhouse gas emissions from international civil aviation at 2020 levels. This paper analyses the obligations that would be placed on real airlines under an initial draft “Strawman” proposal that was originally formulated as a starting point for discussions within ICAO, and the extent to which such a proposal would succeed in keeping emissions at or below the desired level. The provisions of the ICAO proposal were then applied to more than 100 existing airlines. In order to protect commercial sensitivities, we used hierarchical cluster analysis to identify groups of different types of airlines. We report the results for these groups rather than for individual airlines. While ambiguities in the Strawman proposal complicated the analysis, we found that, depending on their size and rate of growth, airlines will be required to offset very different proportions of their emissions from international flights. A system of de minimis exemptions, as currently proposed, would benefit some rich countries as well as poor ones. Targeting such exemptions more narrowly would raise practical difficulties, which we describe. We conclude by recommending that ICAO design and implement a much simpler system; and propose one alternative.     

A “horizontal Sverdrup mechanism” may control the spring bloom around small oceanic islands and over banks

One of the most basic paradigms in marine ecology is the “Sverdrup mechanism,” where the spring bloom is retarded if the surface mixed layer is too deep, due to the algae being mixed vertically out of the euphotic layer. A similar mechanism may operate in vertically homogeneous water over a small shallow area, surrounded by deep waters, if the horizontal exchange is sufficiently intense. In systems with inter-annual variations in the horizontal exchange rate, this may induce inter-annual variations in the timing and intensity of the spring bloom. A numerical primary production model with circular symmetry and prescribed horizontal exchange rate is developed. Using the Faroe Shelf as an example, the model and observations show that the timing and intensity of the spring bloom in the shallow parts of the system may be critically dependent upon the rate of the horizontal exchange. Numerical experiments confirm that the effect of horizontal exchange on the spring bloom is less pronounced for banks than for shelf systems around islands of similar scales, and that the effect increases in importance as the horizontal scale is reduced.     

变压器漏抗对四象限变流器控制的影响

在实际应用时,四象限变流器可能存在变压器漏抗大的情况.探讨了变压器漏抗对四象限变流器控制的影响并以瞬态电流法为基础,通过引入补偿环节,弥补变压器漏抗大时变流器控制带来的不良后果.仿真结果表明,通过调整补偿系数来改善四象限变流器控制性能是行之有效的方法.     

Distribution of dinoflagellate cysts in surface sediments of the Mackenzie Shelf and Amundsen Gulf, Beaufort Sea (Canada)

In order to document long-term climate cycles and predict future climate trends for the Arctic, we need to look at the geological records to establish the link between historical and pre-historical sea-surface parameters. Dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts) are used as proxy indicators of sea-surface parameters (temperature, salinity, sea-ice cover, primary productivity) jointly with transfer functions and a modern dinocyst reference database, to reconstruct the evolution of sea-surface conditions at decadal and millennial timescales. Here we present the surface distribution of recent dinocyst assemblages from 34 surface sediment samples collected on the Mackenzie Slope/Amundsen Gulf during the 2004 CASES (Canadian Arctic Shelf Exchange Study) cruise. Dinocyst concentrations in surface sediments are relatively high outside the Mackenzie plume area and increase gradually eastward toward Amundsen Gulf. The cysts of autotrophic dinoflagellates are dominant throughout the study area, while the maximum abundance of heterotrophic taxa is found within the Mackenzie plume. Hierarchical clustering analyses allowed defining two dinocyst assemblages. Assemblage I is located on the Mackenzie Slope and southern Amundsen Gulf, while Assemblage II is located within the Cape Bathurst Polynya area in northern Amundsen Gulf. Both assemblages are dominated by Operculodinium centrocarpum, but are distinguished on the basis of the relative abundance of Islandinium minutum, a taxon generally associated with sea ice. I. minutum is found in lower abundance in the Cape Bathurst Polynya.     

Climate change impacts on transport on the Rhine and Danube: A multimodal approach

This paper measures the potential effects of low water levels on the Rhine and Danube navigation in the context of weather variability and a number of climate change scenarios. A long-term multimodal network transport analysis over the period 2005–2050 is presented; it analyzes the impact of changes on the water depth conditions on transport costs and the modal splits between three competing modes. The results indicate that the impact of climate change until 2050 should be limited.     

某型压力筒的压力控制系统设计与仿真

压力筒是实验室用于模拟深海压力的专用设备。针对1个容积为6 m3压力筒的压力控制特性要求,提出了开关阀和调节阀的复合控制策略,以满足压力控制的快速性要求和稳态控制工况下的高精度要求。在利用AMESim仿真软件建立系统的半实物仿真模型的基础上,对控制策略进行了仿真研究,证明了压力控制系统的可行性,为工程应用提供了理论支持。     

Impacts of an emission based private car taxation policy - First year ex-post analysis

This paper assesses the impacts of a targeted policy designed to influence car purchasing trends towards lower CO₂ emitting vehicles. Vehicle registration tax and annual motor tax rates in Ireland changed in July 2008 from being based on engine size to emissions performance of cars. This paper provides a one year ex-post analysis of the first year of the tax change, tracking the change in purchasing trends arising from the measure related to specific CO₂ emissions, engine size and fuel, and the implications for car prices, CO₂ emissions abatement, and revenue gathered. While engine efficiency improvements had been offset by purchasing trends towards larger and generally less efficient cars in the past, with the average MJ/km remaining constant from 2000 to 2007, this analysis shows that in the first year of the new taxation system the average specific emissions of new cars fell by 13% to 145 g/km. This was brought about, not by a reduction in engine size, but rather through a significant shift to diesel cars. Despite an unexpected reduction in car sales due to a recession in 2008, the policy measure has had a larger than anticipated impact on CO₂ emissions, calculated to be 5.9 ktCO₂ in the first year of the measure. The strong price signal did however result in a 33% reduction in tax revenue from VRT, in financial terms amounting to a drop of €166 million compared to a baseline situation.