Surrounding traffic complexity analysis for efficient and stable conflict resolution

The constant increase in air traffic demand increases a probability of the separation minima infringements in certain areas as a consequence of increased traffic density. The Annual Safety Report 2016 reports that in recent years the number of infringements, measured per million flight hours, had been increased at a lower rate (Eurocontrol, 2018). However, this level of infringements still generates a continuous pressure on the air traffic control (ATC) system and seeks for more control resources ready to tactically solve potential conflicts, while increasing at the same time the operational costs. Considering present air traffic management (ATM) trade-off criteria: increased airspace capacity and traffic efficiency but reducing the cost while preserving safety, new services must be designed to distribute the separation management ATC task loads among other actors. Based on the Single European Sky Air Traffic Management Research and Next Generation Air Transportation System initiatives, this paper proposes an innovative separation management service to shift the completely centralized tactical ATC interventions to more efficient decentralized tactical operations relying on an advanced surrounding traffic analysis tool, to preserve the safety indicators while considering the operational efficiency. A developed methodology for the proposed service is an application-oriented, trying to respond to characteristics and requirements of the current operational environment. The paper further analysis the traffic complexity taking into consideration the so-called domino effect, i.e. a number of the surrounding aircraft causally involved in the separation management service by the means of identification of the spatiotemporal interdependencies between them and the conflicting aircraft. This complexity is driven by the interdependencies structure and expressed as a time-criticality in quantifying the total number of the system solutions, that varies over time as the aircraft are approaching to each other. The results from two randomly selected ecosystem scenarios, extracted from a simulated traffic, illustrate different avoidance capacities for a given look-ahead time and the system solutions counts, that in discrete moments reach zero value.     

Capacity of Dual-Right-Turn Lanes at Signalized Intersections under Mixed Traffic Conditions

To explore the potential capacity of dual-right-turn lanes at signalized intersections under mixed traffic conditions, we defined two conflict zones between right turn vehicles and through bicycle corresponding to different right turn flows from dual-right-turn lanes. Relationships between the arrival rate of bicycle group at each conflict zone and the saturation flow rate of right turn movement were investigated. A model based on gap acceptance theory was adopted to estimate the capacity of dual-right-turn lanes under mixed traffic conditions. An analysis was carried out using the collected data from three four-leg signalized intersections in Beijing, China, where the dual-right-turn lanes were used. In addition, we also discussed the patterns of bicycle lane in the urban area of Beijing, and classified it based on its characteristics in use. It is concluded that the two lanes of dual-right-turn lanes produce different capacities under mixed traffic conditions, and the analysis on scenarios of dual-right-turn movement traversing bicycle traffic plays a key role in explaining the different capacity performance of the two right turn lanes. Error analysis of the model indicated that the model was rational.     

双车道公路车速标准差与交通冲突相关性研究

为了确定双车道公路车速标准差和交通冲突强度之间的相关性,分析了车速标准差、交通冲突强度与交通事故率之间的关系,理论上建立了车速标准差与交通冲突强度之间的内在联系。通过省道203现场实测数据分析表明双车道公路车速标准差与交通冲突次数之间存在显著的相关关系,多种回归模型分析结果认为多项式回归模型相关系数最高,达到了0.79,研究结果表明双车道公路车速标准差与交通冲突强度存在强相关性。     

Applying a Mediated Negotiation Framework to Integrated Coastal Zone Management

Conflict is intrinsic to coastal zone management, yet relatively few peer-reviewed studies have examined how coastal managers might apply conflict resolution processes in the coastal zone management (CZM) context. The authors believe that many of these disputes can be addressed by using a structured mediation model that involves face-to-face negotiation with a broad range of stakeholders to build consensus-based agreements for integrated coastal zone management (ICZM). To explore this further, the article examines four questions. First, it examines how CZM literature characterizes conflict and conflict resolution. Second, it looks at how essential principles from the field of alternative dispute resolution and environmental mediation can be best employed in the ICZM context. In particular, it explores the various elements of a stepwise agreement building model, a mediated negotiation process model the authors use in practice that bases its success on a foundation of four principles: representation, participation, legitimacy, and accountability. Next, it details three essential tools used in this process, stakeholder analysis, joint factfinding, and single-text negotiation, that the authors believe to be promising for developing and adopting stable, well-informed, and implementable agreements for ICZM. Finally, the article examines how these structuring principles and process strategies have been used in two recent case studies regarding the management of the San Francisco estuary and its tributaries.     

基于TCT的公路交通事故黑点鉴别方法研究

通过阐述事故黑点现有鉴别方法的基础上,进一步提出了基于交通冲突技术的灰色评价法在公路交通事故黑点鉴别中的应用,通过引入严重冲突次数评价指标提高了数据和评价结果的可信度和准确性,并用灰色评价法对各种灰类的聚类值进行归类,为公路交通事故黑点的鉴别提供了新思路。最后通过实例对该方法进行了验算并与其它同类鉴别方法进行比较,得出其优异性。     

冷战后中美在东亚地区的关系及展望

文章分析了冷战后特别是后金融危机时代,中美关系在东亚地区的态势—合作、竞争与冲突,提出了中美关系在东亚地区关系的定位—正常的大国关系,最后分析了中美关系前景及对我国政策制定的影响。     

Three-dimensional conflict count models for unstructured and layered airspace designs

This paper presents analytical models that describe the safety of unstructured and layered en route airspace designs. Here, ‘unstructured airspace’ refers to airspace designs that offer operators complete freedom in path planning, whereas ‘layered airspace’ refers to airspace concepts that utilize heading-altitude rules to vertically separate cruising aircraft based on their travel directions. With a focus on the intrinsic safety provided by an airspace design, the models compute instantaneous conflict counts as a function of traffic demand and airspace design parameters, such as traffic separation requirements and the permitted heading range per flight level. While previous studies have focused primarily on conflicts between cruising aircraft, the models presented here also take into account conflicts involving climbing and descending traffic. Fast-time simulation experiments used to validate the modeling approach indicate that the models estimate instantaneous conflict counts with high accuracy for both airspace designs. The simulation results also show that climbing and descending traffic caused the majority of conflicts for layered airspaces with a narrow heading range per flight level, highlighting the importance of including all aircraft flight phases for a comprehensive safety analysis. Because such trends could be accurately predicted by the three-dimensional models derived here, these analytical models can be used as tools for airspace design applications as they provide a detailed understanding of the relationships between the parameters that influence the safety of unstructured and layered airspace designs.     

城市道路平面交叉口安全评价研究

城市平面交叉口是城市交通冲突和事故频繁发生的地点。文章针对城市道路平面交叉口的交通安全现状,分析了平面交叉口的安全影响因素,提出引入事故率和冲突率为评价指标,建立了灰色理论评价方法,为城市道路平面交叉口的安全治理提供理论支持。     

基于潜在冲突量的交叉口安全评价方法研究

文章提出了潜在冲突量的概念,并对其进行了分类,通过车速、交通量、车道宽度等易获取的交通参数来推算交叉口潜在冲突量,引入混合交通当量,将潜在冲突量与混合交通当量比值作为交叉口安全评价的指标,并结合桂林市的9个交叉口进行了安全程度的评价。     

城市区域性单向交通系统研究

文章介绍了国内外单向交通的发展概况及实施条件,阐述了城市区域性单向交通设置的优势与劣势,并结合具体案例,分析了单向交通系统设置中的问题与对策,提出了实行单向交通的相关建议。