Uncertain demand,modal competition and optimal price-capacity adjustments in air transportation

A new microeconomic model for the operation of an airline facing modal competition with uncertain total demand is developed to analyze optimal price capacity combinations. The novelty is the treatment of the capacity restriction, which is not viewed as affecting negatively individual preferences (e.g. probability of a full flight), but does influence aggregate utility. A mode choice model is used to represent unrestricted individual preferences assuming full availability (phone call demand); air capacity is treated as a variable that acts on the actual choice set. Restricted choices and total demand stochasticity are integrated in welfare calculations (users' benefits and profits). Numerical examples are given and results are analyzed in terms of load factors fare levels, and sensitivity to the stochasticity of requests.This research was partially funded by FONDECYT, Chile, Direction Génerale de l'Aviation Civile, France, the Andes Foundation and the Fulbright Commission.     

收费公路计重定价理论模型

为了遏制超限运输,解决公路通行费征收中的不公平问题,必须改变目前按车型收费的计费模式,实施计重收费。建立计重收费的定价理论模型是推动这种收费方式健康发展的关键。在提出计重收费定义和类型的基础上,根据公路的准公共产品特性,分析了各种价格结构管制定价模式的特点,提出公路收费宜采用非线性的"两部定价"理论模型。结合收费公路费用分摊的具体方法,给出了收费公路计重定价理论模型,并对相关参数进行了标定。该模型已在江苏省和青海省计重收费标准制定中使用。     

A cross-country study of fairness and infringement on freedom as determinants of car owners' acceptance of road pricing

Jakobsson et al. (2000) found that in Sweden public acceptance of road pricing decreases if it is perceived to be unfair and to infringe on freedom. The present study reports a survey investigating whether the same effects are found in the Asian countries of Japan and Taiwan. The results indicate that fairness plays the same role. However, income had a direct effect on acceptance in Taiwan but not in Japan or Sweden.     

软土地基路堤临界高度确定方法探讨

软土地基上高速公路工程建设中存在路堤临界高度的现象,根据国内外已有的文献资料全面总结了路堤临界高度的3种确定方法:实测资料确定法、理论公式计算法和离心模型试验法。在此基础上,根据某高速公路的大量实测数据,利用多元线性回归分析方法,得到了一个路堤临界高度计算的经验公式,探讨了软土地基硬壳层和软土层厚度与路堤临界高度之间的内在联系。     

高速公路可变收费标准模型研究

在介绍可变收费的理论基础上,分析影响高速公路可变收费标准制定的主要因素,并讨论不同时段收费费率同交通量的关系。在设定的可变收费方案下,建立了出行者选择的二元logit模型,根据调研样本,采用最小二乘法对模型参数标定并对设定的可变收费方案进行评价,结果证明可变收费能使交通流在各时段合理分布,从而提高了高速公路的服务水平。     

江苏省交通事故时间分布分析

根据江苏省有关交通事故数据,利用统计方法对交通事故发生的时间特征进行分析。通过分析交通事故年时间分布规律的波峰曲线,得出江苏省交通事故发生数量开始振荡变化,逐年上升的势头有望于近期遏制。通过分析交通事故、月、周、小时时间分布曲线,得出交通事故高峰小时出现在交通量高峰小时之后的9~12h、14~16h,两者不重合。死亡高峰时段(危险时段)多发生在18~21h的3h内。研究结论对不同时间内如何采取不同的安全对策来降低江苏省交通事故具有指导作用。     

考虑收益管理的高铁平行车次动态差别定价

基于RP(Revealed Preference)和SP(Stated Preference)调查数据，利用潜在类别模型对高铁旅客进行细分，得到旅客对平行车次不同服务属性，如列车运行时间、发车时段和舒适度的偏好程度，并对其进行量化；引入收益管理，以多列车整体收益最大为目标，构建平行车次动态差别定价模型，并设计模拟退火算法进行求解；最后，通过京沪高铁进行实例验证.结果表明：与固定票价进行客票销售相比，所提方案能够适应高峰期和平峰期不同客流特点，提高铁路客票总收益，为高铁平行车次灵活定价提供参考.     

基于需求弹性的城市公交票价优化方法及实证分析

城市公交票价是公交系统健康发展的重要因素，票价制定需兼顾公交企业的市场性和公益性双重属性，在保证服务质量的同时，考虑运营成本和最大限度吸引公交需求，实现经济效益和社会效益的双赢.在本文中，根据用户均衡理论，构建了城市多方式交通出行的需求分析模型，采用灵敏度分析方法给出了城市公交价格-需求弹性的计算方法.在此基础上，充分考虑了各种方式的交通特征、公交需求弹性、公交运营成本及政府限价等因素，提出了城市公交票价优化的数学规划模型，并给出了求解算法.最后，以国内某城市居民出行调查及公交运营数据为基础，分析了不同条件下公交客运需求的变化规律及城市公交票价的优化策略.     

Nonlinear pricing in linear cities with elastic demands

Nonlinear road pricing charges each traveler based on his/her trip’s corresponding particular attribute level. In order to help authorities in designing road pricing systems at a strategic level, this paper attempts to address two fundamental questions: (i) what is the value of pricing’s nonlinearity for mitigating traffic congestion? (ii) if a nonlinear toll function is implemented, should it be convex, concave or other shape? Specifically, we consider distance-based pricing in linear cities. For linear monocentric cities with heterogeneous travelers, we show that the system optimal distance-based pricing indeed exhibits nonlinearity. It is proved that: (i) the cost-based system optimal toll function is monotonically increasing and concave with respect to the traveled distance; (ii) the time-based system optimal toll function always exists and is unique. If the initial proportion of each traveler group is invariant along a corridor and the demand function is of exponential type, then the time-based system optimal toll function enables the travelers, living further away from a city center, to face a lower toll level per unit distance. For a linear polycentric city, we demonstrate: (i) there always exists the system optimal differentiated (in terms of city centers) toll functions; (ii) it is highly possible that the system optimal non-differentiated toll function does not exist. Hence, we further propose an optimal toll design model, prove the Lipschitz continuity of its objective and adopt a global-optimization algorithm to solve it.     

地铁供电系统中压开关柜电流分析理论和方法

通过分析地铁供电系统不同电压等级的设备电流特征,确定35 kV电压等级设备电流可构造标准曲线,采用机器智能学习算法分析、测算地铁供电系统中各类开关峰谷时段运行电流,以均值-方差方法确定电流的高度异常偏离点,实现异常点数据周期内统计以及实时提醒功能。应用电流实测值分析电流在工作日、节假日的不同曲线,为负荷预测和非正常运行方式下的负荷叠加风险提供预测和评估依据,保障供电系统的安全运行,提高负荷管控效率。