新冠肺炎疫情对铁路货运的影响及对策探讨

2020年初的新冠肺炎疫情对供应链上下游企业影响的波及,导致全社会货运量均受到不同程度的影响.在分析疫情对铁路货运量的影响基础上,针对货运总体需求下降、运输组织效率有待提高、营销激励机制有待加强等问题,通过畅通信息渠道、快速应对市场需求变化、建立"互利共赢"合作机制促进企业复工复产,通过加强运输组织、优化货运产品结构提...     

Flexible transport services: A new market opportunity for public transport

The term Demand-Responsive Transport (DRT) has been increasingly applied in the last 10 years to a niche market that replaces or feeds (usually via small low floor buses or taxis) conventional transport where demand is low and often spread over a large area. More recently, the concept of DRT as a niche market has been broadened to include a wider range of flexible, demand-responsive transport services and is increasingly referred to as Flexible Transport Services (FTSs). The contention of this paper is that well-implemented FTS has the potential to revitalise bus-based public transport services which are traditionally based on fixed networks with variable geographical coverage and levels of service.     

Recent developments in Flexible Transport Services

This paper focuses on recent experiences in the evolution of Flexible Transport Services (FTS). It describes how previous manifestations of FTS provided dedicated solutions for special groups, often in parallel to the conventional public transport network, but highlights that in numerous countries across Europe there is now a discernable trend towards open access FTS providing services for the whole community and often feeding the conventional public transport network to provide wider access and opportunities. This is as a result of policies intended to mainstream services for people with disabilities and moves to tackle social exclusion amongst other groups while at the same time reducing the very high costs per trip associated with STS.To meet these policies, and the higher expectations and different travel behaviours of citizens to-day, it is suggested that FTS will need to radically reposition itself in terms of scale, so that there is mass coverage and ability to function as a full transport mode. This will require breakthroughs in concepts; business models; organisational and operational models; and in supporting technologies. A proposed solution to this is the Flexible Agency for Collective Mobility Services (FAMS) which provides an organisational structure and business model for FTS that incorporates the required supporting technologies.     

On the existence of stationary states in general road networks

Our daily driving experience and empirical observations suggest that traffic patterns in a road network are relatively stationary during peak periods. In numerous transportation network studies, there has been an implicit conjecture that stationary states exist in a network when origin demands, route choice proportions, and destination supplies are constant. In this study, we first rigorously formulate the conjecture within the framework of a network kinematic wave theory with an invariant junction model. After defining stationary states, we derive a system of algebraic equations in 3-tuples of stationary link flow-rates, demands, and supplies. We then introduce a new definition of junction critical demand levels based on effective demands and supplies. With a map in critical demand levels, we show that its fixed points and, therefore, stationary states exist with the help of Brouwer’s fixed point theorem. For two simple road networks, we show that the map is well-defined and can be used to solve stationary states with a brute-force method. Finally we summarize the study and present some future extensions and applications.     

Numerical analysis of electric bus fast charging strategies for demand charge reduction

Electric transit buses have been recognized as an important alternative to diesel buses with many environmental benefits. Electric buses employing lithium titanate batteries can provide uninterrupted transit service thanks to their ability of fast charging. However, fast charging may result in high demand charges which will increase the fuel costs thereby limiting the electric bus market penetration. In this paper, we simulated daily charging patterns and demand charges of a fleet of electric buses in Tallahassee, Florida and identified an optimal charging strategy to minimize demand charges. It was found that by using a charging threshold of 60–64%, a $160,848 total saving in electricity cost can be achieved for a five electric bus fleet, comparing to a charging threshold of 0–28%. In addition, the impact of fleet sizes on the fuel cost was investigated. Fleets of 4 and 12 buses will achieve the lowest cost per mile driven when one fast charger is installed.     

舰船风浪中航行及操纵系统

基于风浪中经验航法和理论航法相结合的观点；汲取耐波性等领域的研究成果，提出了一种实用的风浪航行操纵系统，集合3个子系统（海浪计算子系统，航向航速优选子系统，摇荡短期时历预子系统）的计算结果，合理组合，可满足风浪航行及转向时机，舰载直升机起降时同，海上补给及拖带航向航速选择等决策的需求。     

船舶溢油事故风险评估方法研究

船舶溢油是最严重的海洋污染之一,对船舶溢油风险进行科学有效的预测和评估,揭示其发生的复杂规律,采取相应的预防及应急措施,使船舶溢油污染降到最低程度,已成为当今世界的一个热点。本文对船舶溢油的几种预测方法进行了实用性和局限性的讨论,从中得出灰色系统理论较适用于溢油数据记载不完备及新建港口的溢油预测,可作为制定有效的船舶溢油事故应急措施的科学依据。     

天津港道路交通专项规划方案探讨

以《天津港道路交通专项规划》主要内容为依据,针对进港和港内道路交通系统衔接进行深入分析,提出适合港内道路交通需求分析的新方法,并给出若干规划方案,最终确定推荐方案。     

铁路货运量的灰色预测模型

通过对近年全国铁路货运量的统计数据进行分析,运用灰色理论建立了铁路货运量预测模型。经过实际数据计算和精度检验,验证了灰色预测模型的有效性。     

Effect of open skies in the Middle East region

This research aims to estimate potential inter-regional passenger flows for air transport in the Middle East under open skies polices, once deregulation agreements are reached between neighboring countries. To arrive at reasonable demand estimates, Western and Eastern European demand data was analyzed as a first step, since it is assumed that current Middle Eastern demand is distorted as a direct result of regional political instability. The major factors affecting demand, based on the European dataset, included population size, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, absolute difference in GDP per capita between two countries, great circle distance and membership of the European Union and World Trade Organization. Subsequently, a 21 country database was estimated for passenger flow in the Middle East region on an average peak season day. The demand estimations became input for a hub location model (p-hub median formulation) in order to achieve the second major aim of this research, objective identification of potential regional gateways. The results proved robust to both single and multiple allocation model assumptions, with Cairo and Tehran consistently achieving hub status, along with Istanbul and Riyadh, as the number of potential hubs increased. Finally, this research shows that under conditions of peace, given existing socio-economic indicators, inter-regional passenger demand flow could increase by upwards of 51% and regulatory authorities ought to consider the necessary infrastructure and demand management policies to enable the conservative regional demand growth estimated.