Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

On Safety in Dismantling Temporary Strut of Super-large Tunnels with Double-layer Primary Support北大核心CSCD

More and more multiple-track tunnels and super-large section tunnels have been built, and disman- tling of temporary strut is a weak point of the whole structure during force transfer when the secondary lining is con- structed. It is significant to guarantee structure safety during dismantling of temporary strut. Little systematic re- search on safety in dismantling of temporary strut of the super-large section tunnel with double-layer primary support has been conducted, so the internal force and security of the two-layer primary support of the Xinkaotang tunnel were analyzed by a numerical analysis and site measurement, and it proves the effect of two-layer primary support on the safety during strut dismantling. The research results indicate that: (1) with constant support thickness and one-time longitudinal dismantling length, the safety factor of secondary primary support is larger than that of the first primary support, and the safety factor of the first primary support is larger than that of the single-layer primary support. Change range of safety factor for the first primary support is smaller than that of the single-layer primary support, and the safe factor for the single-layer primary support is smaller than that of the secondary primary support; (2) with the same support pattern, the safety factors increase firstly and then decrease with an increase of the onetime dismantling length. The calculated results of various cases show that the reasonable one-time dismantling length for this project is about 9 m. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Effect of Seismic Parameters on the Safety Factor for an Underground Cavern北大核心CSCD

In order to quantitatively evaluate the safety of the surrounding rock of an underground cavern under seis-mic load, a comprehensive evaluation method for the stability of surrounding rock is proposed based on the general safety factor and point safety factor. A calculation method for the general safety factor of a cavern based on the prin-ciple of shear strength reduction of a rock mass is given, the run-through of the plastic zone between the main power-house and main transformer room is presented as a critical criterion for the overall instability of the cavern, and the general safety factor is obtained by searching for the reduction coefficient. A point safety factor calculation method based on the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion is given. The influence of different seismic input parameters on the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions are studied based on an underground power-house cavern of a hydropower station in Southwest China. The results show that the quantitative evaluation method for the stability of the surrounding rock based on the safety factor is feasible and can reflect the general safety de-gree and local safety degree of different positions of the cavern for different working conditions. It is found that the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions decrease with an increase of the ampli-tude and duration of a seismic wave while they increase with an increase of the incident angle; additionally, the low frequency of a seismic wave has a great influence on the cavern while the high frequency has little effect. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

斜向波浪对斜坡堤胸墙作用力的试验研究

斜坡堤胸墙的稳定性主要受到波浪作用的影响,而且实际工程中斜坡堤多受斜向波浪作用。通过斜向与正向不规则波对斜坡堤胸墙作用的物理模型试验研究,分析斜坡堤单个胸墙所受的斜向波浪总力的折减系数随水位和波浪入射角度的变化规律,并与斜向波浪对单元直立堤的作用情况进行对比。结果表明:斜坡堤单个胸墙所受的斜向波浪总力的折减系数总体上随着水位的降低而变小,随着波浪入射角度的减小而变小;斜向波浪总浮托力的折减系数一般小于总水平力的折减系数;在不同水位和波浪入射角下,斜坡堤单个胸墙所受的斜向波浪总力的折减系数与单元直立堤有一定差别。     

基于48000载重吨教学实习船的动力学结构优化

本文以48000载重吨教学实习船为研究对象,采用通用有限元软件MSC.Patran/Nastran进行全船频响分析.全船有限元计算条件要求极高,而一般情况下又存在各种资料的限制或实验数据的缺失,因而会使得计算精度较低.本文介绍利用基本的设计资料的条件下,从模态参与系数角度结合模态振型提出一种新的动力学结构优化思路,并进行计算分析以验证该方法的可行性与准确性,为全船有限元振动分析提供新的研究思路.     

复杂地形区土壤侵蚀及其影响因子提取

相对与地形平坦地区,复杂地形区土壤侵蚀的提取存在较大的难度。RUSLE是目前应用最广泛的土壤侵蚀经验模型,但它只提供了一般条件下土壤侵蚀的提取方法。为了将RUSLE有效的应用在复杂地形区,需要对模型中相关侵蚀因子提取方法进行适当的调整。因此重点对受复杂地形影响严重的地形因子和作物覆盖与管理因子的提取方法进行研究,提出了更准确的提取方法。利用该方法对三峡库区的姊归县进行实验,结果表明,该方法可以有效提取土壤侵蚀信息。     

桥梁荷载横向分布系数计算方法

以主梁挠度横向分布规律来确定桥梁荷载横向分布,考虑了桥梁结构计算模态的固有频率、振型和模态质量,提出了一种适用于各种结构形式桥梁的荷载横向分布系数计算方法,即模态参数法.分别以一座有机玻璃模型试验桥梁和一座公路斜交T型桥梁为算例,介绍了桥梁荷载横向分布系数的计算步骤.计算结果表明:荷载横向分布系数的测量值与计算值最大误差为2.6%,因此,相比于传统的桥梁荷载横向分布系数计算方法,模态参数法减小了对桥梁结构进行分类和假定带来的误差,更具有通用性和准确性.     

海洋平台KK型管节点的疲劳性能试验研究

以某自升式海洋平台为研究对象,进行了空间KK型管节点在轴力作用下的疲劳性能的试验研究.通过对管节点模型的试验测试,得到了KK节点在轴力作用下沿着焊缝周围的热应力区内的热点应力分布及节点的应力集中系数,并采用S-N曲线法对KK型管节点的疲劳寿命进行估算.通过对比分析,指出了试验方法与规范计算方法在管节点疲劳性能分析上的差异性.     

液力缓速器叶片倾角对容量系数的影响分析

根据能量平衡方程计算了叶片倾角与容量系数的数值关系,基于CAD和CFD技术,建立了缓速器工作流道的三维模型,采用RNG k-ε湍流模型模拟工作轮内部流场,分析了叶片倾角为40°,50°和60°时液体的翼面静压和湍流动能的分布规律,并利用有限体积法计算得到容量系数的数值.研究表明：叶片倾角为50°时,容量系数数值最小,其原因是叶片冲击引起的湍流最强,液流阻力最大.     

改进的海浪波包谱

结合实测波浪资料对描述波浪群性的主要特征参数进行了统计和相关性分析,结果表明波群的高度特征和长度特征之间相关性较弱。在此基础上根据渤海和珠江口两地的波浪观测数据,采用合理的无因次化方式,拟合得到一个适于风浪的波包谱经验公式。该公式同时考虑了群高与群长两方面的因素,只要给出波要素和波群的特征参数便可确定波包谱形,便于应用,根据对实测资料波群参数的分析结果,与俞聿修等人先前建议的波包谱公式相比,该公式中给出了更合理的参数取值原则。