Are multi-car households better suited for battery electric vehicles? – Driving patterns and economics in Sweden and Germany

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) could reduce CO₂ emissions from the transport sector but their limited electric driving range diminishes their utility to users. The effect of the limited driving range can be reduced in multi-car households where users could choose between a BEV and a conventional car for long-distance travel. However, to what extent the driving patterns of different cars in a multi-car household’s suit the characteristics of a BEV needs further analysis. In this paper we analyse the probability of daily driving above a fixed threshold for conventional cars in current Swedish and German car driving data. We find second cars in multi-car households to require less adaptation and to be better suited for BEV adoption compared to first cars in multi-car households as well as to cars in single-car households. Specifically, the share of second cars that could fulfil all their driving is 20 percentage points higher compared to first cars and cars from single-car households. This result is stable against variation of driving range and of the tolerated number of days requiring adaptation. Furthermore, the range needed to cover all driving needs for about 70% of the vehicles is only 220 km for second cars compared to 390 km for the average car. We can further confirm that second cars have higher market viability from a total cost of ownership perspective. Here, the second cars achieve a 10 percentage points higher market share compared to first cars, and to cars in single-car households for Swedish economic conditions, while for Germany the corresponding figure is 2 percentage points. Our results are important for understanding the market viability of current and near-future BEVs.     

A real-time system for monitoring driver fatigue

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a nonintrusive prototype computer vision system for real-time fatigue driving detection. First, we use Haar-like features to detect a driver’s face and conduct tracking by introducing an improved Camshift algorithm. Second, we propose a new eye-detection algorithm that combines the Adaboost algorithm with template matching to reduce computational costs and add an eye-validation process to increase the accuracy of the detection rate. Third, and different from other methods focusing on detecting eyes using the ‘bright pupil’ effect, which only works well only for certain constrained lighting conditions, our method detects and estimates the iris center in the hue (H) channel of the hue, saturation, value color space and fits the iris with an ellipse. After extracting the eye fatigue features, we calculate the PERCLOS measurement for fatigue evaluation. This system has been tested on the IMM Face Database, which contains more than 200 faces, and in a real-time test. The experimental results show that the system possesses good accuracy and robustness.     

Can we reduce car use and, if so, how? A review of available evidence

Transport accounts for nearly a quarter of current energy-related carbon dioxide emissions with car travel constituting more than three quarters of all vehicle kilometres travelled. Interventions to change transport behaviour, and especially to reduce car use, could reduce CO₂ emissions from road transport more quickly than technological measures. It is unclear, however, which interventions are effective in reducing car use and what the likely impact of these interventions would be on CO₂ emissions. A two-stage systematic search was conducted focusing on reviews published since 2000 and primary intervention evaluations referenced therein. Sixty-nine reviews were considered and 47 primary evaluations found. These reported 77 intervention evaluations, including measures of car-use reduction. Evaluations of interventions varied widely in the methods they employed and the outcomes measures they reported. It was not possible to synthesise the findings using meta-analysis. Overall, the evidence base was found to be weak. Only 12 of the 77 evaluations were judged to be methodologically strong, and only half of these found that the intervention being evaluated reduced car use. A number of intervention approaches were identified as potentially effective but, given the small number of methodologically strong studies, it is difficult to draw robust conclusions from current evidence. More methodologically sound research is needed in this area.     

上海港口经济驱动因素和演化过程分析

港口经济系统演化过程遵循着一般产业的生命周期模式。基于港口经济发展的演化模式和动力机制,提出上海港口经济评价指标体系,运用因子分析法并在SPSS的帮助下提取因子,分析1991～2005年上海港口经济的主导驱动因素,得出上海港口经济主要是由腹地经济、国际贸易、港口运作规模以及港口投资和经营能力等因素决定,在此基础上进而计算综合因子得分,考察上海港口经济演化过程。分析结果与1991～2005年间上海港口经济实际运行状况吻合,这说明该经济评价指标和分析方法具有实用性。     

Consumer valuation of changes in driving range: A meta-analysis

We perform a meta-analysis of studies investigating consumer preferences for electric and other alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) to provide insights into the way driving range is traded off for capital costs. We find that consumers are willing to pay, on average, between 66 and 75 US$ for a 1-mile increase in driving range. Ceteris paribus, 100-mile-range cars have to be priced about 60% less than their conventional counterparts to become competitive. In line with intuition, but in contrast to most specifications employed in primary studies, we find that consumers’ marginal willingness to pay (WTP) decreases at a diminishing rate with increases in driving range. The variation in the WTP and compensating variation estimates among examined studies can be attributed to differences in the levels of driving range considered, in other elements of the study design and in the country of study. Our findings support stated preference literature’s conclusion that short driving range has been a major limitation to the large-scale adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and other AFVs, and that technological developments permitting longer driving ranges will, to some extent, facilitate their market penetration. We further propose that consumer valuation of driving range should not be examined in isolation from other attributes related to refuelling activities, such as refuelling duration and the coverage of refuelling infrastructure.     

The need for building role models for motorcycle riders' education in the kingdom of Cambodia

In Cambodia, a rider's license is not required for motorcycles below 125?cc. and 73% of traffic accident fatalities among persons aged 15–19?years involve unlicensed riders. Motorcycle riding differs from automobile driving in that motorcycle riding reflects the rider's skill to a much greater degree, so unskilled riding is much more highly correlated with accidents. Going forward, in addition to gaining knowledge from traffic safety education, motorcycle riders should also learn basic specific motorcycle techniques. In particular, having riders learn and practice the three key tasks in motorcycle riding (breaking, leaning, and exiting) is effective at curbing the number of motorcycle accidents. In a new initiative aimed at improving riding skill, university students, instructors, and police officers were given practical riding instruction on a course using pylons. Program participants were able to learn riding techniques in an enjoyable setting, while seeing the potential for becoming motorcycle riding role models.     

Are vehicle trajectories simulated by dynamic traffic models relevant for estimating fuel consumption?

This paper questions the relevance of microscopic traffic models for estimating the impact of traffic strategies on fuel consumption. Urban driving cycles from the ARTEMIS database are simplified into piecewise linear speed profiles to mimic the classical outputs of microscopic traffic flow models. Fuel consumption is estimated for real and simplified trajectories and links between kinematics and the fuel consumption errors are investigated. Simplifying trajectories causes fuel consumption underestimation, from −1.2 to −5.2% on average according to the level of simplification; errors can approach −20% for some cycles. A focus on kinematic phases indicates that the maximum speed reached and the time decelerating are the main influences on fuel consumption. Finally, in the case where maximum speeds are estimated correctly, it is shown that errors committed at each kinematic phase when acceleration distributions are approximated by their mean values, converge towards small errors over complete cycles. A method is developed to quantify and reduce these errors.     

Methodology for kinematic cycle characterization of vehicles with fixed routes in urban areas

This paper analyses the driving cycles of a fleet of vehicles with predetermined urban itineraries. Most driving cycles developed for such type of vehicles do not properly address variability among itineraries. Here we develop a polygonal driving cycle that assesses each group of related routes, based on microscopic parameters. It measures the kinematic cycles of the routes traveled by the vehicle fleet, segments cycles into micro-cycles, and characterizes their properties, groups them into clusters with homogeneous kinematic characteristics within their specific micro-cycles, and constructs a standard cycle for each cluster. The process is used to study public bus operations in Madrid.     

Risk assessment based on driving behavior for preventing collisions with pedestrians when making across-traffic turns at intersections

Traffic accident statistics in Japan show the necessity of preventing vehicle-on-pedestrian accidents. If the risk of a vehicle colliding with pedestrians could be evaluated in advance, driver-assistance systems would be able to support drivers to avoid potential collisions. Here, features of driving behavior and methods for assessing the risk of collision were investigated for a right turn at an intersection in left-hand traffic, which is a typical vehicle-on-pedestrian accident scenario. The results showed that pedestrian-collision risk can be evaluated from how the driver slows the vehicle and where the driver looks while turning during the maneuver. Moreover, pedestrian-collision risk could be predicted based on driving behavior upon commencement of steering when making an across-traffic turn.     

行车液压取力交流发电系统可行性研究

本文对行车液压取力交流发电系统的可行性进行了分析,并结合实例进行了验证。