Part 2. Beyond single-outcome models: Decompositions of aggregate and disaggregate road safety risk

The second part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the development of the founders' double streams explaining single-outcome indicators (probability of accidents and fatalities, respectively) by fixed form regression, as outlined in the Part 1. Following Page (1997, pp. 67–122, 2001) and others, we use as turning point of the evolution of both aggregate and discrete approaches the DRAG-1 model of 1984, itself based on aggregate data, which introduced four key innovations in principle applicable to both streams.     

Financing Beach Improvements: Comparing Two Approaches on the Georgia Coast

Fifty-five percent of Georgia's developed coastline has been armored with various types of erosion protection devices. This article is about beach improvement projects at Jekyll Island that would operate under (a) a nourishment policy or (b) a retreat policy. Benefits are calculated from an intensive, on-site survey of beach visitors and the costs are calculated from observable sources. Two financing methods are considered: general revenue and user fee financing. The analyses imply recommending beach improvement as an effective policy within the considered time frame.     

Testing the Effects of Constraints on Climate Change–Friendly Behavior among Groups of Australian Residents

This study explores the relationship between Australian's attitudes toward climate change impacts on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and environmentally responsible behavior (ERB). We hypothesize that general attitudes toward climate change, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control predict intended and reported behavior, and that attitude negatively influences constraints on adopting ERB. The moderating effect of residential condition (urban vs. rural contexts) was tested across these hypothesized relationships. We randomly selected 200 individuals from eight regions: Five within 50 km of the GBR Coastline and three from the Statistical Metropolitan Areas in Australia. We yielded 1,623 surveys by telephone interviews. Findings confirm our hypotheses and suggest the most important predictor of intentions is perceived behavioral control. The two groups of respondents (urban vs. rural) illustrate different relationships. This study offers insight on how managers of the GBR can effectively shape residents' behavioral tendencies that minimize human impacts on the natural environment.     

铁道客车系统的垂向减振分析

建立铁道客车垂向振动系统数学模型,计算客车系统幅频特性曲线,根据曲线峰点来确定系统自振频率,给出客车系统自振频率计算的简单近似解析方法和精确数值方法。提出客车系统各刚体振型共振速度的概念和计算公式,得出共振速度只与系统本身的自振频率和结构参数如车辆定距和转向架固定轴距有关。对客车系统在有无动力吸振器情况下的简谐和随机振动进行分析,认为采用吸振器确实能够在一定程度上抑制车体某些频率成分的振动,适当增大吸振器质量、刚度和阻尼,可以达到较好的减振效果。     

基于刚度退化的框-剪结构受力性能研究

根据模型试验数据确定各变形阶段框架与剪力墙的实际刚度,针对4种典型工况,分别采用框架与剪力墙刚度退化系数计算刚度退化后的各楼层刚度,再沿结构高度方向加权平均得到结构真实刚度。基于协同工作原理提出一种考虑结构刚度退化计算框-剪结构的适用方法,通过算例分析了结构的受力性能。研究结果表明:考虑结构刚度退化后,结构自振周期增加,刚度减少,侧移增大,总框架承担总剪力的比例增加,《规范》对框架承担剪力的调整是有必要的。     

列车振动对地铁重叠隧道结构力学行为的影响

以深圳地铁3号线红岭中路站~东门中路站两个盾构区间小净距空间重叠隧道段为背景,采用有限元数值模拟研究手段,对小净距空间重叠隧道运营过程中上洞列车通过时,上、下两洞结构的力学行为进行数值模拟研究,得出了由于上洞列车振动引起下洞各点附加加速度变化的最大值位于下洞拱顶内侧以及引起地层附加位移较大区域的分布范围等结论,直接指导设计。     

高原人群出行拥挤感知与调适行为研究

为缓解高原城市节日期间部分路段人流过于密集的状况,对高原人群出行过程中的拥挤感知和调适行为进行研究。首先,在对高原人群高度自由走行速度、生理尺寸进行测定的基础上,采用连续人群流动模型分别对高原人群拥挤临界密度、人群运动速度减小时的人群密度和人群停滞状态时的最大密度进行测算,进而标定高原人群最大忍受密度为8.5人/m2。然后,选取雪顿节期间八廓南街人流短时间内高度聚集的状况进行拥挤状况评估,结果显示该路段人群密度为8.34人/m2,接近高原人群最大忍受密度,因此判定八廓南街存在拥挤事故风险。最后,依据基于层次分析法的高原人群拥挤感知影响因素分析结论,提出相应的调适行为措施,力求维护民族宗教节日期间高原城市公众正常的出行秩序。     

CBTC—RF信号系统下的驾驶模式及转换原则

重点分析阐述了信号系统采用CBTC-RF系统下的各种驾驶模式及模式间转换应遵循的原则。     

大连新建地铁对公交出行选择的影响

为了分析城市新建地铁项目对居民公共交通出行的影响,改善公交服务水平,提高公共交 通的分担率,针对大连市新建地铁线路展开研究。以大连市地铁1 号线沿线站点作为研究区域, 采用SP （Stated Preference） 调查方法,收集了300 名地铁沿线居民对常规公交以及新建地铁两种 出行方式的选择数据。通过建立二项Logit 模型,分析出行成本、换乘时间等选择方案特性变 量,出行特性变量以及出行者特性变量对于居民出行方式选择行为的影响,并计算弹性值及模型 精度。结果表明,通过调整出行成本及换乘时间可有效提高地铁分担率。由此提出相关政策建 议：对于出行成本,可从出行者年龄及出行次数两方面制定不同的优惠政策;对于换乘时间,可 从提高可达性、完善购票系统以及调整发班频率三方面进行改善。