儿童慢型克山病的自然病程

为了探讨儿童慢型克山病的自然病程和预后危险因素，本文分析了长期随访的儿童慢型克山病６３例，结果表明：①儿童慢型克山病预后差，其１年存活率５０．５％、５年仅１５．８％；②自然慢性发病、有奔马律、心功能Ⅲ级以上，心电图心室增大，Ｘ线心胸比率重度扩大者，５年存活率低（Ｐ＜０．０５或０．０１）。     

汽车史应从16世纪始——论世界汽车技术史大观

明确汽车的定义是研究汽车发展史的前提。按照本文所下汽车的定义,16世纪的风帆车是现代汽车的开山鼻祖。1886年是现代活塞式内燃机汽车的开端。 汽车发展史将无限延续于人类社会。内燃机作为汽车动力仍旧如日冲天,生命力强大,但多种动力型式并存的局面已经开始。     

绿色港湾建设

结合国内外10大著名港口实例,从规划设计、结构选型、使用年限确定、旧有建筑物的改造和再利用、提高环保理念和健全法规等方面,论述了＂绿色港湾＂建设的必要性和可行性,以探研绿色港湾建设及其相关概念,并提出建议。可供规划设计人员参考。     

曲线弯梁桥振动理论分析

利用广义坐标法和能量原理推导曲线梁桥的振动控制微分方程,解释曲线梁桥振动理论与直线梁振动理论的异同点,在推导质量矩阵的显式表达式过程中考虑截面扭转中心与截面形心的不一致。随后给出了曲线梁动力分析的有限元方法,并完成了相应电算程序的编制。最后通过实例分析并验证本文所提计算理论和计算方法的正确性。     

Estimation of value of travel time reliability

In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed.     

Ramp meters on trial: Evidence from the Twin Cities metering holiday

Ramp meters in the Twin Cities have been the subject of a recent test of their effectiveness, involving turning them off for eight weeks. This paper analyzes the results with and without ramp metering for several representative freeways during the afternoon peak period. Seven performance measures: mobility, equity, productivity, consumers’ surplus, accessibility, travel time variation and travel demand responses are compared. It is found that ramp meters are particularly helpful for long trips relative to short trips. Ramp metering, while generally beneficial to freeway segments, may not improve trip travel times (including ramp delays). The reduction in travel time variation comprises another benefit from ramp meters. Non-work trips and work trips respond differently to ramp meters. The results are mixed, suggesting a more refined ramp control algorithm, which explicitly considers ramp delay, is in order.     

既有线提速路基动应力分析

通过对既有线提速区段路基的调研和试验,得出结论,动应力与轴重、速度及线路平顺性有关。列车提速时,轴重增加和轨道不平顺对路基动应力影响最大。路基面动应力在横向呈马鞍分布,动应力沿深度方向衰减较快。采用当量折算和Boussinesq公式推算出的提速后路基动应力与实测值接近。在既有线提速改造中,重点应消除路基病害,提高基床特别是基床表层的强度和稳定性。     

铁路货物运输的随机过程分析和及时送达概率估计

应用随机过程理论，分析铁路运输系统中货物及时送达的概率分布，得到货物运输延续时间的平均值，为实现用户要求的运到期限提供了合理保证，并可通过评估与货主商定的运到期限与实际货物送达时间误差的概率，来找到货物及时送达过程中的关键环节，改进货物送达流程。最后举例说明它的应用。     

用动态规划方法优化设计船舶车辆甲板结构

基于规范的车辆甲板结构优化设计在数学上是一个较大的非线性规划问题，而且为了满足实际需要，其中一些变量只能离散变化。本文将该问题处理为三阶段决策问题，因而能运用动态规划方法有效地求解。通过一个实例详细说明求解过程，从中看出应用动态规划方法解决基于规范的船舶结构优化设计问题的特色。     

柴燃并车试验台齿轮箱动态仿真与实验

以带同步超越离合器的并车齿轮箱传动系统的研究对象，讨论系统动力学模型，用模态分析法与状态空间法，对多自由度时变非线性方程组求解，利用所建的动态分析仿真模型，分别对柴或燃运行方式的斜齿柱齿轮传动系统动态仿真得出结果与实验结果相近，对柴燃联合动力装置切换点选择和数字仿真模型的确立有参考价值。