Modeling and optimizing urban bus transit considering headway variation for cost and service reliability analysis

Due to the stochastic nature of traffic conditions and demand fluctuations, it is a challenging task for operators to maintain reliable services, and passengers often suffer from longer travel times. A failure to consider this issue while planning bus services may lead to undesirable results, such as higher costs and a deterioration in level of service. Considering headway variation at route stops, this paper develops a mathematical model to optimize bus stops and dispatching headways that minimize total cost, consisting of both user and operator costs. A Genetic Algorithm is applied to search for a cost-effective solution in a real-world case study of a bus transit system, which improves service reliability in terms of a reduced coefficient of variation of headway.     

基于车头时距与行程时间的排队长度算法

基于电子警察过车数据,分析该周期内车道通行车辆的车头时距变化规律,提出该周期车道排队长度值的实时计算方法。针对多次排队、绿波协调情况,结合通行车辆的行程时间对结果进行修正,得到该周期车道最大车辆排队长度值。通过桐乡市庆丰路实时监控视频对比计算结果,证明本算法具有较高准确性。算法便于工程实践,可为信号配时优化提供数据支撑。     

基于Vissim的快速公交到站间隔波动性分析

快速公交在运营中一般采用均匀发车频率。但由于受各方因素影响,其实际到站间隔往往存在一定波动性。应用Vissim仿真软件,建立一条快速公交线路仿真模型。通过分组试验,采集车辆到达车站的时间间隔,分析不同车站位置、发车频率以及信控方案影响下快速公交到站间隔的波动性。     

车头间距分布规律的研究

以我国混合车流作为高等级公路交通流的基本构成,分析了混合车流车型跟驶序列组合的概率;采用计算机模拟手段,得到了车头时距阈值与速度关系、不同跟车序列最小车头间距、车头间距与随机度关系和车头间距与流量关系;并通过随机度参数将微观和宏观参数整合为一体。     

Time-dependent fuzzy random location-scheduling programming for hazardous materials transportation

The tremendous use of hazardous materials has promoted the economic development, which also brings about a growing risk causing a widespread concern. In this work, we consider a location-scheduling problem on hazardous materials transportation under the assumption that transportation risks are time-dependent fuzzy random variables. First, we formulate a scheduling optimization model and design a fuzzy random simulation based genetic algorithm to optimize the departure time and dwell times for each depot–customer pair. Then we establish an expected value model and design a modified particle swarm optimization algorithm to minimize the en route risks and site risks. Finally, numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed models and algorithms.     

城市轨道交通站前交替折返间隔分析及计算方法

描述了站前交替折返的作业流程,分析了时序上的限制关系,推导出站前交替折返的停站时间、发车间隔等参数的计算公式,并对特殊情况进行了分析。     

A probabilistic framework for weather-based rerouting and delay estimations within an Airspace Planning model

In this paper, we develop a novel severe weather-modeling paradigm to be applied within the context of a large-scale Airspace Planning and collaborative decision-making model in order to reroute flights with respect to a specified probability threshold of encountering severe weather, subject to collision safety, airline equity, and sector workload considerations. This approach serves as an alternative to the current practice adopted by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of adjusting flight routes in accordance with the guidelines specified in the National Playbook. Our innovative contributions in this paper include (a) the concept of “Probability-Nets” and the development of discretized representations of various weather phenomena that affect aviation operations; (b) the integration of readily accessible severe weather probabilities from existing weather forecast data provided by the National Weather Service; (c) the generation of flight plans that circumvent severe weather phenomena with specified probability threshold levels, and (d) a probabilistic delay assessment methodology for evaluating planned flight routes that might encounter potentially disruptive weather along its trajectory. Additionally, we conduct an economic benefit analysis using a k-means clustering mechanism in concert with our delay assessment methodology in order to evaluate delay costs and system disruptions associated with variations in probability-net refinement-based information. Computational results and insights are presented based on flight test cases derived from the Enhanced Traffic Management System data provided by the FAA and using weather scenarios derived from the Model Output Statistics forecast data provided by the National Weather Service.     

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在对下匝道衔接道路进行交通调查的基础上,应用数理统计方法和回归技术分析了衔接道路上车辆的变换车道特征和车头时距分布规律,验证了可能性转移矩阵法的假设条件是符合衔接道路的交通运行特征的,可以用该方法计算衔接道路的最小长度,并应用分析得到的衔接道路车头时距分布规律对模型进行了修正,经过算例分析验证模型的有效性     

北京地铁5号线折返追踪间隔分析

在城市轨道交通运行系统中,列车在折返区域的追踪间隔是单条线路提升运力的瓶颈.分析北京地铁5号线折返追踪间隔,以实现“列车2 min运行间隔”的目标.首先根据现场实测数据分析5号线列车在折返区域中的进站追踪能力、折返追踪能力和出站追踪能力,进而计算列车在折返区域的最小运行间隔;其次,基于列车运行图编制理论提出通过缩短列车站停时分、出入库时分、转台时分来减小列车折返追踪间隔的方法;最后,结合北京地铁实际的运营管理经验,从系统设计角度提出缩短城市轨道交通列车折返追踪间隔的技术手段和措施.     

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车头时距分布是研究交通流特性的重要方法。本文基于北京市若干交叉口的实测样本数据,研究分析了拥堵状态下信号交叉口的排队车辆越过停车线的车头时距分布及其变化特点,结果表明在第6个车辆之后达到饱和车头时距。在此基础上,针对中心城区拥堵区域次干道以上等级的信号交叉口,提出拥堵状态下的通行能力模型。进一步地,利用实测数据作了案例计算与对比分析,直行与左转车道通行能力的平均误差率分别为2.27%与4.28%,验证了模型的可行性与有效性。此外,该结果优于其它计算方法所得结果,表明在拥堵状态下,该方法的适用性更高。