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车头时距分布是研究交通流特性的重要方法。本文基于北京市若干交叉口的实测样本数据,研究分析了拥堵状态下信号交叉口的排队车辆越过停车线的车头时距分布及其变化特点,结果表明在第6个车辆之后达到饱和车头时距。在此基础上,针对中心城区拥堵区域次干道以上等级的信号交叉口,提出拥堵状态下的通行能力模型。进一步地,利用实测数据作了案例计算与对比分析,直行与左转车道通行能力的平均误差率分别为2.27%与4.28%,验证了模型的可行性与有效性。此外,该结果优于其它计算方法所得结果,表明在拥堵状态下,该方法的适用性更高。     

冰雪条件下乌鲁木齐市平面交叉口交通特征分析

立足于乌鲁木齐市中心城区平面信号控制交叉口,以乌鲁木齐市西虹西路与南昌南路交叉口为例,调查不同天气条件下交叉口的交通流特性,研究冰雪条件下道路交叉口机动车的延误、车速及车头时距状况。分析冰雪条件下机动车存平面信号交叉口时的交通流特征,并与正常天气下进行对比。结果表明冰雪条件下机动车停驶延误增加4～8S,引道延误增加2～5S,车速降低约30％,车头时距增加10％～20％。研究成果为乌鲁木齐市在交通规划和设计中提供参考依据。     

混合流优先控制T型交叉口通行能力研究

在对城市优先控制T型交叉口进行交通调查基础上,分析交叉口混合交通流运行特性;对交叉口主路到达行人及非机动车流按“群”统计,借鉴间隙接受理论模型,对混合流下交叉口交通流运行等级进行划分,将主路到达的行人及非机动车流看作独立优先冲突流,并对其冲突特性进行分析,最终建立适应混合流下优先控制T型交叉口的通行能力计算模型,为交叉口改造、管理控制方式选择及整个路网通行能力的提高提供理论依据。     

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目前大多数信控交叉口交通延误模型仅对一个进口进行分析,本文提出了交叉口各进口在同一个信号周期内的期望交通延误分析方法.针对交叉口各进口同时处于非饱和交通状况,推导建立了能够体现交叉口延误与信控参数、车辆到达率、车辆排队长度等参数之间动态关系的微观延误模型.将其应用于长沙市解放西路与建湘路信控交叉口的延误计算,并与点样本法、HCM2000法的计算结果比较,表明本模型在信控交叉口延误计算分析中具有较好的精确度和适用性.     

Part 3. Multivariate road safety models: Future research orientations and current use to forecast performance

The third part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the future of road safety modeling and on conjectures concerning the evolution of national safety indicators. In the absence of econometric developments specific to road safety modeling, the research future must rely on pre-existing statistical procedures of econometrics applied to discrete/count and to aggregate data. In terms of contents, growing interest in the heterogeneity of road accident outcomes by category of victims could lead to treatments of this issue across research streams, say by top-down and bottom-up developments, but this speculation does not rest on extant adequate formulations of the issue of road user class and victim analysis. But understanding the time profile of aggregate national performance indicators is quite another matter.     

Mobile phone use by young drivers: effects on traffic speed and headways

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of mobile phone use while driving on traffic speed and headways, with particular focus on young drivers. For this purpose, a field survey was carried out in real road traffic conditions, in which drivers' speeds and headways were measured while using or not using a mobile phone. The survey took place within a University Campus area, allowing to distinguish between settings approximating to either free flow or interrupted flow conditions. Linear and loglinear regression methods were used to investigate the effects of mobile phone use and several other young driver characteristics, such as gender, driving experience and annual distance travelled, on vehicle speeds and headways. Separate models were developed for average free flow, interrupted flow, as well as for total average speed. Results show that mobile phone use leads to a statistically significant reduction in traffic speeds of young drivers in all types of traffic conditions. Furthermore, male and female drivers reduce their speed similarly when using a mobile phone while driving. However, male drivers using their mobile phone drive at lower speeds than female drivers not using their mobile phones. Sensitivity analysis revealed that, among all explanatory variables, the effect of mobile phone use on speed was most important. Accordingly, vehicle headways appear to increase for drivers using their mobile phone. However, this effect could not be statistically validated, due to the strong correlation between speed and headway.     

非机动车跟驰模型的研究

交通仿真技术的广泛应用,提高了方案预测的准确性和实时再现性。在以模拟机动车为主的仿真软件不能较好满足国内混合交通的背景下,非机动车跟驰模型的研究尤为重要。论文首先参照机动车定义了非机动车的虚拟行车道,提出了跟驰状态的判断条件,以此作为非机动车跟驰行为的研究基础。其次,以车辆间应保持的最小安全车头间距为思路,充分考虑非机动车中电动自行车与自行车之间的差异,构建了非机动车的跟驰模型。最后,将模型所涉及的参数与宏观的交通流参数联系起来,通过流量、速度和密度关系,验证了模型的有效性。研究对于完善现有的交通仿真软件具有一定的参考和实用价值。     

城市快速路单车道车头间距的研究

为了研究城市快速路不同车型在单车道自由流状态下车头间距分布现象,文章基于交通调查和系统数据采集的方法,通过统计分析解析了城市快速路单车道自由流车头间距分布规律,得出了自由流状态下城市快速路单车道车头间距符合负值数分布,不同车型之间的车头间距分布也不同的结论.利用数理统计的方法对实测数据进行分析处理,分析当前车为小汽车、后车为出租车时,车头间距较大;而前车为出租车、后车为小汽车时,车头间距较小,车头间距与流量成反比关系.     

高速公路合流区车辆换算系数研究

车辆换算系数是道路通行能力研究的重要组成部分,合流区内的车辆运行特性与基本路段有着显著差异,其车辆换算系数也应和基本路段有所差异。通过对实测交通流数据的处理分析,以车辆瞬时占用道路时间和车身长度为指标进行聚类,将高速公路合流区车型划分为4种,进一步计算了4种车型之间所形成的16种车头时距,并以车头时距为基础推导了车辆换算系数的计算模型,根据实测数据计算得出了高速公路合流区各车型车辆换算系数。采用饱和车头时距法和流量车速法分别对得到的车辆换算系数进行了验证,结果表明,计算的车辆换算系数具有一定的实用性。     

信号交叉口专用双左转车道交通特性分析

结合北京市典型信号控制交叉口实际情况,现场调查高峰时段7个保护相位下专用双左转车道的车头时距、周期流量、大型车比例等数据,对双左转车道使用特性和调头车辆影响特性进行分析。结果表明,左转车辆的内、外侧车道利用率为50%,大型客车倾向于选择外侧左转车道行驶,给出双左转饱和流率的范围为1587～1818pcu/h/ln,平均值为1665pcu/h/ln,并且得到内、外侧左转饱和车头时距均值无显著性差异的结论。考虑到内侧车道特有的调头行为对左转车辆运行的影响,用数学方法确定了调头行为带来影响的范围,给出左转调头车辆相对于左转标准小型车的当量值为1.39。