Pollution history of a tropical estuary revealed by combined hydrodynamic modelling and sediment geochemistry

Hydrodynamic modelling of water movement in Hunts Bay, a protected part of Kingston Harbour, Jamaica, shows that depth averaged tidal flows are very low. In the northeast corner of Hunts Bay, water is essentially stagnant. Even under high flow conditions, much of the Bay bottom water is ‘bypassed' by buoyant, lower salinity surface flows. The muddy sediments of Hunts Bay reflect these sluggish to stagnant conditions; sediment cores from the northeast corner of the Bay contain progressively higher amounts of organic matter in their upper parts (last 15–20 years sedimentation). Combined C/N ratios and stable carbon isotope compositions of this organic matter imply a sewage origin. Both lead and chromium metal concentrations and enrichment factors relative to average crustal shales show geographically related patterns that reflect hydrodynamic circulation predicted by modelling. In particular, metal concentrations and enrichment factors are highest at the northern end of the bay, especially in the northeast corner. Modelling confirms that stagnant conditions would occur in the northeast part of the bay even without the presence of a major causeway. The causeway may contribute to low flow conditions, but is not the principal cause of organic contamination, which is simply an excessive input of sewage.     

湖南省财政收入与经济增长的动态关系

利用协整理论对湖南省财政收入与经济增长进行了分析,并使用动态建模方法建立一个误差修正模型(ECM)对两者之间的关系进行拟合,以揭示它们之间的短期波动和长期均衡关系。     

An analytical mathematical method for calculation of the dynamic wheel–rail impact force caused by wheel flat

The simplified method to determine a vertical impact force of wheel with flat and rail interaction is presented in this article. The presented simplified method can be used to identify maximum contact force and its distribution in the contact length between the damaged wheel and the rail. The vertical impact force depends on geometrical parameters of the rail and wheel with flat, speed of vehicle and the angle of deviation of rail. This article demonstrates the influence of wheel with flat geometrical parameters, speed of vehicle to maximum contact force and its distribution in the contact zone. The obtained values of the simplified method for determination of a vertical contact force are compared with the results obtained from field measurements.     

桥吊小车减速箱轴断裂原因分析及改进

小车减速箱是桥吊牵引机构的重要组成部份,保证减速箱在工作中的正常运行,对提高桥吊的工作效率和安全性能有着重要意义。对齿轮轴断口进行宏观分析,结合有限元和材料力学等方面,深入地分析减速箱齿轮轴断裂原因,同时提出合理化的处理方案和改进措施。     

Description of a flexible and extendable physical–biogeochemical model system for the water column

A modelling system for coupled physical–biogeochemical simulations in the water column is presented here. The physical model component allows for a number of different statistical turbulence closure schemes, ranging from simple algebraic closures to two-equation turbulence models with algebraic second-moment closures. The biogeochemical module consists of models which are based on a number of state variables represented by their ensemble averaged concentrations. Specific biogeochemical models may range from simple NPZ (nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton) to complex ecosystem models. Recently developed modified Patankar solvers for ordinary differential equations allow for stable discretisations of the production and destruction terms guaranteeing conservative and non-negative solutions. The increased stability of these new solvers over explicit solvers is demonstrated for a plankton spring bloom simulation. The model system is applied to marine ecosystem dynamics the Northern North Sea and the Central Gotland Sea. Two different biogeochemical models are applied, a conservative nitrogen-based model to the North Sea, and a more complex model including an oxygen equation to the Baltic Sea, allowing for the reproduction of chemical processes under anoxic conditions. For both applications, earlier model results obtained with slightly different model setups could be basically reproduced. It became however clear that the choice for ecosystem model parameters such as maximum phytoplankton growth rates does strongly depend on the physical model parameters (such as turbulence closure models or external forcing).     

Winter problems on mountain passes – Implications for cost-benefit analysis

Cost-benefit analysis is a tool in government decision-making for determining the consequences of alternative uses of society’s scarce resources. Such a systematic process of comparing benefits and costs was adopted in early years for transportation projects and it has been the subject of much refining over the years. There are still some flaws, however, in the application of the method. In this article we have studied the impact of weather conditions on traffic speed on low traffic roads often exposed to adverse weather. This is an issue not currently considered in the cost-benefit analysis of road projects. By using two analytical approaches—structural equation modelling and classification and regression tree analysis—the impact of the weather indicators temperature, wind speed, and precipitation on traffic speed has been quantified. The data relates to three winter months on the European Route 6 road over the mountain pass Saltfjellet in Norway. Increase in wind speed, increase in precipitation and temperatures around freezing point all caused significant decrease in traffic speed in the case studied. If actions were taken to reduce the impact of adverse weather on traffic (e.g. by building a tunnel through the mountain) this study indicates that the road users would gain a total benefit of approximately 2,348,000 NOK (282,000 EUR) each winter at Saltfjellet if all the weather related benefits were included. We argue that this is a significant number that is highly relevant to include in CBAs. This applies both to the CBAs of new transportation projects as well as when resources are allocated for operation, maintenance, and monitoring of the existing transport systems. Including the weather related benefits would improve the application of CBA as a decision-making tool for policy makers.     

ANSYS的建模方法和网格划分

随着计算机硬件升级更新速度的不断加决,有限元技术得到空前的发展,越来越多地应用于各个领域。而ANSYS软件具有建模简单,快速,方便的特点,因而成为大型通用有限元软件的代表。对有限元作了一个总体的介绍,简要叙述了ANSYS软件的主要特点,着重介绍了ANSYS软件的建模方法,并结合自己的实践经验谈了ANSYS软件的网格划分技巧。     

Generating synthetic baseline populations from register data

The paper presents a population synthesiser based on the method of Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) algorithm developed for the new Danish national transport model system. The synthesiser is designed for large population matrices and allows target variables to be represented in several target constraints. As a result, constraints for the IPF are cross-linked, which makes it difficult to ensure consistency of targets in a forecast perspective. The paper proposes a new solution strategy to ensure internal consistency of the population targets in order to guarantee proper convergence of the IPF algorithm. The solution strategy consists in establishing a harmonisation process for the population targets, which combined with a linear programming approach, is applied to generate a consistent target representation. The model approach is implemented and tested on Danish administrative register data. A test on historical census data shows that a 2006 population could be predicted by a 1994 population with an overall percentage deviation of 5-6% given that targets were known. It is also indicated that the deviation is approximately a linear function of the length of the forecast period.     

Agent-based modelling for assessing hybrid and electric cars deployment policies in Luxembourg and Lorraine

Electric mobility is often presented as a way to tackle the environmental issues associated with individual mobility, provided that electric vehicles are adopted by drivers on a mass scale. In this paper, we propose an agent-based model (ABM) aiming at modelling the deployment of these vehicles. ABM is particularly indicated when modelling complex systems whose final results are the combination of the interactions between individuals and their environment and when the agents have partial information to take their decisions. We selected Luxembourg and its French neighbouring region, Lorraine, as the case study for our model, to test Luxembourg’s ambitious objective of deploying 40,000 electric vehicles by the year 2020. Model results show that the number of battery powered electric vehicles in Luxembourg (including vehicles from Lorraine’s commuters crossing the border every day) could be between 2000 and 21,000. A high number of commercial vehicles in Luxembourg, as well as an unlikely deployment in the neighbouring Belgium and Germany would therefore be required to meet the deployment objective. However, the deployment of plug-in hybrid vehicles could reach 60,000 cars by the end of 2020. To achieve this number, the deployment of charging points seems to be the more effective policy, along with actions aiming at increasing public awareness and acceptance of electric vehicles. The interest in using the ABM also lies in the identification of the main individuals’ characteristics affecting the deployment of electric vehicles (household size, commuting distances, etc.), which further support the setting of public policies.     

Activity based travel demand models as a tool for evaluating sustainable transportation policies

India is in the course of an economic transition. The economic growth nurtured the life in the cities and cities have become a major livelihood destination for everyone. This migration of people contributed to the increased urbanization of Indian cities. The booming economy fostered the well-being and shaped the lifestyle of people in such a way that the dependency on private vehicle has become an unavoidable affair. Along with population growth, the increased vehicle ownership gave rise to overall spurt in travel demand. But the supply side lagged behind the demand adding to many of the transport related externalities such as accidents, congestion, pollution, inequity etc. The importance of sustainability is understood in the current urban transport scenario leading to the development and promotion of sustainable transport polices. The core agenda of these polices is to target the travel behavior of people and change the way they travel by creating a different travel environment. However, the impacts of many such policies are either unknown or complex. Hence, before adopting and implementing such policies, it is important for the decision makers to be aware of the impacts of them. The role of travel demand models comes here as they predict the future travel demand under different policy scenarios. This paper reviews the ability of travel demand models applied in India in analyzing the sustainable transport policies. The study found that the conventional model system in India, which is trip based four step aggregate methodology, is inadequate in analyzing the sustainable transport policies. A review of alternative approach, known as activity based travel demand modeling found that they are capable of handling such policies better than conventional models and are assistive to the decision makers in arriving at right mix of polices specific to the situations. Since there is no operational activity based travel demand model system developed in India, the study at the end envisaged a conceptual framework of an integrated activity based travel demand model based on the requirements identified from the review. This can potentially replace the existing travel demand models and can be used for planning applications once the modification & validation have been done according to the existing activity-travel behavior of individuals.