Predicting the adoption of connected autonomous vehicles: A new approach based on the theory of diffusion of innovations

On the grounds that individuals heavily rely on the information that they receive from their peers when evaluating adoption of a radical innovation, this paper proposes a new approach to forecast long-term adoption of connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs). The concept of resistance is employed to explain why individuals typically tend to defer the adoption of an innovation. We assume that there exists a social network among individuals through which they communicate based on certain frequencies. In addition, individuals can be subject to media advertisement based on certain frequencies. An individual’s perceptions are dynamic and change over time as the individual is exposed to advertisement and communicates with satisfied and dissatisfied adopters. We also explicitly allow willingness-to-pay (WTP) to change as a result of peer-to-peer communication. An individual decides to adopt when (i) there is a need for a new vehicles; (ii) his/her WTP is greater than CAV price; and (iii) his/her overall impression about CAVs reaches a cutoff value. Applicability of the proposed approach is shown using a survey of employees of the University of Memphis. Our results show that the automobile fleet will be near homogenous in about 2050 only if CAV prices decrease at an annual rate of 15% or 20%. We find that a 6-month pre-introduction marketing campaign may have no significant impact on adoption trend. Marketing is shown to ignite CAV diffusion but its effect is capped. CAV market share will be close to 100% only if all adopters are satisfied with their purchases; therefore, the probability that an individual becomes a satisfied adopter plays an important role in the trend of adoption. The effect of the latter probability is more pronounced as time goes by and is also more prominent when CAV price reduces at greater rates. Some caveats may be inserted when considering the study results as the findings are subject to sample bias and data limitations.     

STX1(2)型驮背多功能运输车超偏载检测标准

分析了STX₁₍₂)型驮背多功能运输车对既有超偏载检测方法和标准的适应性,提出了该车的超偏载检测方案,明确了公路货车或半挂车超偏载的检测方法及评判标准。     

浅谈新常态下海员的现状与可持续发展

海员是我国从海洋大国向海洋强国转变的中流砥柱,他们为发展国民经济、保证航运安全和扩大对外开放做出了巨大的贡献。但是从当前形势来分析,我国对海员的教育培训力度和关怀力度却远远跟不上海洋经济的发展。文中主要指出我国海员目前所面临的发展现状,结合国外海员的发展模式及可吸取的经验,对我国海员的可持续发展做出较为全面的策略探讨。     

地下工程注浆技术研究新进展

注浆是土木、水利和矿山等工程建设中重要的防渗和加固技术。文章基于国内外注浆技术研究文献,总结了水泥等颗粒性浆液的“渗滤效应”及“黏度时空变异性”等理论研究成果,论述了非水反应高聚物、CW环氧树脂和微生物菌液等注浆新材料的应用现状及发展前景,介绍了细观力学数值模拟研究的突破性进展,可为地下工程注浆技术发展提供借鉴和启发作用。     

格拉斯磁环匀强磁场分析

以毕奥-萨伐尔定律为基础,建立亥姆霍兹线圈以及格拉斯磁环中心磁场分布模型,并计算了它们内部的轴向磁感应强度分布,绘出了空间分布图,分析了轴向磁感应强度与x、y坐标的关系,分析结果得到了亥姆霍兹线圈和格拉斯磁环内部匀强磁场分布区域,通过比较得到格拉斯磁环内部的匀强磁场区域比亥姆霍兹线圈内部的匀强磁场分布区域更大的结论。     

Locating emergency vehicles with an approximate queuing model and a meta-heuristic solution approach

In this paper, the location of emergency service (ES) vehicles is studied on fully connected networks. Queuing theory is utilized to obtain the performance metrics of the system. An approximate queuing model the (AQM) is proposed. For the AQM, different service rate formulations are constructed. These formulations are tested with a simulation study for different approximation levels. A mathematical model is proposed to minimize the mean response time of ES systems based on AQM. In the model, multiple vehicles are allowed at a single location. The objective function of the model has no closed form expression. A genetic algorithm is constructed to solve the model. With the help of the genetic algorithm, the effect of assigning multiple vehicles on the mean response time is reported.     

The potential mitigation of CO2 emissions via modal substitution of high-speed rail for short-haul air travel from a life cycle perspective – An Australian case study

The objective of this study is to provide a strategic evaluation of the mitigation of CO₂ emissions via modal substitution of high-speed rail for short-haul air travel on the Sydney–Melbourne, Australia city-pair from a life cycle perspective. It has been demonstrated that when considering CO₂ emissions from vehicle operations, the modal shift from air to high-speed rail on this city-pair has the potential to provide a means of CO₂ mitigation. However, uncertainty exists with regard to the level of mitigation potential when considering the whole-of-life performance of the systems. Given the significant difference in the infrastructure requirements between the air mode and the high-speed rail mode, this study quantifies the life cycle CO₂ load attributable to each system and examines the effect on CO₂ mitigation potential. The study concluded that while the inclusion of the linehaul infrastructure did increase the CO₂ load associated with high-speed rail mode, it did not equate to or exceed the CO₂ load per trip as experienced by the air mode. The avoided annual life cycle CO₂ emission in the target year 2056 was 0.37 Mt representing an 18% reduction when compared to the air mode only on the city pair. In fact, the scenario comparison indicated that the substitution of high-speed rail for short-haul air travel on the city pair resulted in CO₂ emissions avoidance throughout the longitudinal period.     

放宽条件定点集结模式下编组站车辆 集结排队系统分析

集结模式决定了货车集结过程的结束条件，定点集结是一种高效率的集结方式，有利于提高运输质量.针对放宽条件定点集结模式下编组站车辆集结过程，建立离散时间批到达批服务排队模型，利用嵌入式马尔可夫链方法求得离去时刻瞬时系统集结车辆队长分布，并求得任意时刻车辆集结队长分布，在此基础上分别分析了最小编成辆数，车组大小分布，车流到达强度，服务时间间隔分布对车辆平均集结队长，集结延误时间，效率，一昼夜发送车流量等系统指标的影响.分析结果表明，各因素对车辆集结排队系统影响明显.因此，利用本文提出的模型能为编组站的精细化管理和车流组织优化提供决策参考.     

论孔子人才观的历史定位与普适价值

孔子的人才观虽然产生于春秋时期动荡的社会背景下,却揭示了人才的最本质内涵———＂仁、智、勇＂。三者作为人才内涵的核心三要素,形成一个内在的三角稳定结构,它能够持久地推动包括成才在内的人的生命境界的发展,因而具有超越时代和社会阶层的普适价值。     

A novel approach for the modelling of air quality dynamics in underground railway stations

Indoor air quality in subterranean train stations is a concern in many places around the globe. However, due to the specificity of each case, numerous parameters of the problem remain unknown, such as the braking discs particle emission rate, the ventilation rate of the station or the complete particle size distribution of the emitted particles. In this study the problem of modelling PM₁₀ concentration evolution in relation with train traffic is hence addressed with a particle-mass conservation model which parameters are fitted using a genetic algorithm. The parameters of the model allow to reproduce the dynamics and amplitude of four field data sets from the French and Swedish underground contexts and comply with realistic bounds in terms of emissions, deposition and ventilation rate.