对中国未来10年道路交通安全状况分析与初步预测

笔者从中国现代道路交通系统的发展现状与道路交通安全状况出发，以过去10多年中国汽车、摩托车保有量的发展轨迹为基础，对中国未来一定时期（2004～2015年）机动车保有量的发展变化及政府采取不同管理对策条件下的道路交通安全状况的发展水平进行了预测。结果表明：政府管理对策对道路交通安全状况变化具有决定性影响。     

利用数学模型进行港内长周期波浪风险分析

针对港内长周期波风险问题,使用MIKE 21 BW模型建立了港内波浪传播数学模型。模型的构建使用了白噪谱和天然波况作为入射波浪条件。基于白噪谱的模拟结果,使用数字滤波技术分析了港池固有共振周期,并给出了相应共振周期下的水面高程和能量密度分布;基于天然波况的模拟结果,提取了泊位处的波高时间序列,以30 s为界限,分离出了长周期波。以西非某港为例,探讨了港池的长波风险,模拟结果可作为港池布局的参考依据。     

Mike21软件桩群概化方法在高桩码头中的应用

码头前沿水域的横流过大容易导致船舶撞击码头或系船缆绳断裂,进而引发安全事故,因此研究码头前沿水域的流场状况对码头轴线合理选取和船舶的安全靠泊有着非常重要的意义。基于桩群概化方法,采用Mike21软件中的三角形网格水动力模块(FM模块)对曹妃甸矿石一期、矿石三期高桩码头附近的流场进行了数值模拟,并与现场实测流速、流向进行对比验证,确定了模型中的桩群影响参数。在此基础上,深入研究相邻高桩码头桩群阻力对周边海域的影响,并对码头前横流进行计算和分析。此方法实施简单、计算效率高,对大范围海域影响研究结果合理,对高桩码头前沿水域有关流速、流向的计算结果更加准确,对码头轴线合理选取和船舶安全靠泊有重要的参考意义。     

面向21世纪的海事控制理论探讨：船舶营运安全的基本要素结构

ＩＭＯ自成立以来始终致力于减少船舶事故。１９９８年实施的ＩＳＭ规则和ＳＴＣＷ７８／９５公约,以及即将遍布全球的ＰＳＣ网,能否有效地降低海事数量？如何控制“人为因素”？如何控制２１世纪的海事？经分析,提出了船舶营运安全的基本要素结构：“人－机－环境－管理”理论假说。经检验,假说便于全面查找事故原因和预防措施,便于分析和弥补ＩＭＯ现行安全措施的不足,方便了海上安全学科体系的构建。进而提出了包含该理论的海事控制策略建议。为将海事控制由经验型的事后性纠正,上升为科学型的事前性预防,提供了一种研究和控制模式     

Emergence of cooperation in congested road networks using ICT and future and emerging technologies: A game-based review

Information and communications technologies (ICT) and future and emerging technologies (FET) are expected to revolutionize transportation in the next generation. Travelers’ behavioral adaptation is a key to their success. We discuss the notion of managing traffic congestion by enhancing cooperation in road networks enabled with ICT and FET. Cooperation is an emergent social state related to the dynamics and complexity of road traffic and reinforced learning. Game theory and research in behavioral economics show that cooperation can be leveraged to efficiently solve social dilemmas similar to traffic congestion. We review the applicability of behavioral economics and game theory concepts to route, mode and departure time choice problems. Beyond advancing theory, research on cooperation in the context of transportation is still in its infancy. We discuss state-of-the-art methodologies and their weaknesses and review the unexplored opportunities inherent in game-based methodologies. A behavioral-technological research agenda for FET is also discussed.     

Guidance for transport planning and policymaking in the face of an uncertain future

Uncertainty of outcome is widely recognised as a concern facing decision-makers and their advisors. In a number of spheres of policy, it appears uncertainty has intensified in the face of globalisation, economic instability, climate change, technological innovation and changing consumer preferences. How can planners and policymakers plan for an uncertain future? There is growing interest in, and use of, techniques that can help decision-making processes where deep uncertainty is involved. This paper is based upon one of the most recent international examples of a foresight exercise employed to examine uncertainty – specifically that which concerns uncertainty over the nature and extent of future demand for car travel. The principal focus of the paper is on the insights and guidance this examination of uncertainty brings forth for transport planning and policymaking. To accommodate deep uncertainty requires a flexible and open approach in terms of how policy and investment possibilities are formulated and judged. The paper argues for a focus upon the Triple Access System of spatial proximity, physical mobility and digital connectivity as a framework for policy and investment decisions that can harness flexibility and resilience. Uncertainty becomes an opportunity for decision-makers with the realisation that they are shaping the future rather than (only) responding to a predicted future. The paper outlines two forms of policymaking pathway: regime-compliant (in which adherence to trends and the nature of the world we have known pushes policy) and regime-testing (in which the nature of the world as we have known it is brought into question and vision pulls policy decisions). Stronger orientation towards regime-testing to assist in managing an uncertain future is advocated.     

城市处理生活垃圾法规弊端分析及其改进措施

文章通过对西安市规制生活垃圾法律规章的认识以及对处理垃圾现状的调查，由小及大地分析了在各地法律规章中普遍存在的弊端，大胆提出了未来法律规章应当遵循的立法原则以及应当建立的法律制度。并且希望垃圾分装、统一收购、奖惩并举和调动个人与社会力量参与处理生活垃圾的主张能对未来立法有所裨益。     

Much Ado about Nothing? - An analysis of economic impacts and ecologic effects of the EU-emission trading scheme in the aviation industry

From 2012 on, all CO₂ emissions from flights departing from or arriving at airports within the European Union have to be offset. We analyze the economic and ecological impacts that are caused by an inclusion of the aviation industry into the proposed emissions trading scheme (ETS). Building on the now fixed system design we employ a simulation model to estimate the impacts of the scheme. Our results indicate that financial impacts are highly dependant on external settings, such as allowance prices and demand growth. We show that the financial burden on the aviation industry will be rather modest in the first years after the introduction of the system and therefore induce only low competition distortions. Likewise, emission reductions within air transportation will be comparably low. While aviation will induce a decline of emissions in other sectors, significant absolute reductions within air transportation can only be reached by a more restrictive system design.     

某拟建修造船厂工程波浪分析

依据秦皇岛海洋站34年实测资料统计分析出的不同重现期的波浪要素,针对某拟建修造船厂工程总平面布置方案,利用TK-2D波浪数学模型及MIKE21的BW方程波浪数学模型,对工程建成前后的波浪场进行模拟.确定了工程区域各等深线处的设计波要素,论证了船厂码头和不同的防波堤、进港航道平面方案布置对港内的泊稳条件、拟建码头前的波浪变形情况以及波浪变化对码头作业天数的影响.模型中考虑了波浪的折射、绕射、反射、底部损耗等因素,为工程设计提供依据.     

岸线变化对天津近岸海域污染物输移扩散影响研究

应用MIKE21数学模型对天津近岸海域潮流场进行数值模拟,同时考虑天津近岸海域5个典型河口污染物输入的影响,计算了大小潮作用下COD输移扩散范嗣,并研究了岸线变化对COD输移扩散范围的影响.结果表明,岸线的变化对北塘口及天津港附近COD的输移扩散有较大影响.岸线变化后,大小潮高低潮时刻对应的0.001 mg/L浓度等值...