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31.
Within the literature concerned with aspects of competitiveness, innovation and strategic management of industrial clusters, the body regarding forecasting of strategic management is still nascent. This work aspires to render a contribution within the domain of strategic management forecasting, through the indicative case of European maritime clusters. For this end, a two-tier model is formulated. A quantitative strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) methodology that derives from the fusion of a quondam situation analysis and crosstabs’ theory is generated. This leads to the utilization of the crosstab’s conditional probabilities as transition probabilities; the latter are called to compile the transition matrix of a Markov chain. Through this methodology, and the successive Markov chain’s transition matrices, strategic forecasts are extracted for a devised European maritime cluster case. This work relinquishes a novel application with respect to strategic management forecasting, that provides a dichotomy of practical interpretations and scenarios for quantitative situation analysis. Thus, it may enable effective real-time decision-making for strategic management and/or policy drafting. The situation analysis forecasting model may find applicability in a plethora of practical and theoretical cases, wherein forecasting may be desirable. It may as well pertain to an intrinsic methodology for situation analysis forecasting of maritime clusters. 相似文献
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This paper provides guidance for an optimal and reasonable dry port layout for the port of Dalian in China. We present a two-phase framework on the location of dry ports, which solves the selection of candidate inland cities and optimal dry port location choice, respectively. Fuzzy C-Means Clustering is applied to select alternative cities in the vast hinterland of the seaport of Dalian, with a view to identify evaluation factors that affect the location selection decision. A cost-minimisation linear programming solution is proposed, with the aid of a genetic algorithm, to choose the optimal location as well as capacity level among the candidate inland cities. 相似文献
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张会宾 《国防交通工程与技术》2007,5(3):31-34
建立了一种基于模糊综合评判的Floyed方法来选择最佳机动道路的模型:首先确定道路评估指标体系,对每段道路进行二级模糊综合评估,以确定每段道路所对应的不同加权值;然后对每段道路重新赋值,并运用Floyed方法来确定最佳机动道路;最后,结合实例进行了求解,得到了综合各种信息后的战时机动的最佳路径。 相似文献
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This article examines possibilities for the application of soft computing techniques for the prediction of travel demand. The model, based on fuzzy logic and a genetic algorithm, successfully solves the trip distribution problem. The possibilities of using the proposed model in solving trip generation, modal split and route choice problems have also been indicated. The model has been tested on a real numerical example. Exceptionally good correspondences between estimated and real values of passenger flows have been obtained. 相似文献
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This paper reviews the existing procedures to compute the seasonal factors, growth factors, and the number of automatic traffic recorder stations (ATRs) for developing a statistically reliable traffic counting program. The review is based on, (i) theoretical evaluation of the procedures, (ii) analysis of the results obtained from applying these procedures to extensive real life data, and (iii) experience of past researchers with these methods. The paper primarily deals with existing statistical procedures for determining seasonal factors, since it is believed that these factors play the most important role in estimating Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADTs) from short counts. The procedure of cluster analysis (which is most commonly used to determine seasonal factors) is critically reviewed. The shortcomings of this method motivated the development of a different statistical procedure, based on regression analysis, to determine seasonal factors. It is shown that this newly developed method gives better results than the cluster analysis techniques. Furthermore, separate sections are dedicated to a thorough analysis of determination of number of ATR stations and computation of growth factors. 相似文献
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以哈尔滨市干道路网为研究对象,收集到了该路网上468个路段和163个平面交叉口的道路交通数据,以及1999年至2004年所发生的8510起交通事故数据.分析了事故数据的统计分布特性,应用聚类分析技术确定了路段和交叉口的类别 ,并在此基础上分别建立了事故总体和分事故形态的预测模型.论文探讨了高峰时段的事故次数、事故率与路段v/c之间的定量关系.标定出了24个模型,并形成干道系统事故预测模型库.最后,运用所建立的事故预测模型选取了2010年哈尔滨规划路网的一部分进行实例分析,结果表明了预测模型是有效的. 相似文献