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In the absence of system control strategies, it is common to observe bus bunching in transit operations. A transit operator would benefit from an accurate forecast of bus operations in order to control the system before it becomes too disrupted to be restored to a stable condition. To accomplish this, we present a general bus prediction framework. This framework relies on a stochastic and event-based bus operation model that provides sets of possible bus trajectories based on the observation of current bus positions, available via global positioning system (GPS) data. The median of the set of possible trajectories, called a particle, is used as the prediction. In particular, this enables the anticipation of irregularities between buses. Several bus models are proposed depending on the dwell and inter-stop running time representations. These models are calibrated and applied to a real case study thanks to the high quality data provided by TriMet (the Portland, Oregon, USA transit district). Predictions are finally evaluated by an a posteriori comparison with the real trajectories. The results highlight that only bus models accounting for the bus load can provide valid forecasts of a bus route over a large prediction horizon, especially for headway variations. Accounting for traffic signal timings and actual traffic flows does not significantly improves the prediction. Such a framework paves the way for further development of refined dynamic control strategies for bus operations. 相似文献
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The drive to reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions is one shared by both businesses and governments. Although many businesses in the European Union undertake interventions, such as driver training, there is relatively little research which has tested the efficacy of this approach and that which does exist has methodological limitations. One emerging technology employed to deliver eco-driving training is driver training using a simulator. The present study investigated whether bus drivers trained in eco-driving techniques were able to implement this learning in a simulator and whether this training would also transfer into the workplace. A total of 29 bus drivers attended an all-day eco-driving course and their driving was tested using a simulator both before and after the course. A further 18 bus drivers comprised the control group, and they attended first aid courses as well as completing the same simulator drives (before-after training). The bus drivers who were given the eco-driving training significantly improved fuel economy figures in the simulator, while there was no change in fuel economy for the control group. Actual fuel economy figures were also provided by the bus companies immediately before the training, immediately after the training and six months after the training. As expected there were no significant changes in fuel economy for the control group. However, fuel economy for the treatment group improved significantly immediately after the eco-driving training (11.6%) and this improvement was even larger six months after the training (16.9%). This study shows that simulator-based training in eco-driving techniques has the potential to significantly reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the road transport sector. 相似文献
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This paper investigates the multimodal network design problem (MMNDP) that optimizes the auto network expansion scheme and bus network design scheme in an integrated manner. The problem is formulated as a single-level mathematical program with complementarity constraints (MPCC). The decision variables, including the expanded capacity of auto links, the layout of bus routes, the fare levels and the route frequencies, are transformed into multiple sets of binary variables. The layout of transit routes is explicitly modeled using an alternative approach by introducing a set of complementarity constraints. The congestion interaction among different travel modes is captured by an asymmetric multimodal user equilibrium problem (MUE). An active-set algorithm is employed to deal with the MPCC, by sequentially solving a relaxed MMNDP and a scheme updating problem. Numerical tests on nine-node and Sioux Falls networks are performed to demonstrate the proposed model and algorithm. 相似文献
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Transit agencies often provide travelers with point estimates of bus travel times to downstream stops to improve the perceived reliability of bus transit systems. Prediction models that can estimate both point estimates and the level of uncertainty associated with these estimates (e.g., travel time variance) might help to further improve reliability by tempering user expectations. In this paper, accelerated failure time survival models are proposed to provide such simultaneous predictions. Data from a headway-based bus route serving the Pennsylvania State University-University Park campus were used to estimate bus travel times using the proposed survival model and traditional linear regression frameworks for comparison. Overall, the accuracy of point estimates from the two approaches, measured using the root-mean-squared errors (RMSEs) and mean absolute errors (MAEs), was similar. This suggests that both methods predict travel times equally well. However, the survival models were found to more accurately describe the uncertainty associated with the predictions. Furthermore, survival model estimates were found to have smaller uncertainties on average, especially when predicted travel times were small. Tests for transferability over time suggested that the models did not over-fit the dataset and validated the predictive ability of models established with historical data. Overall, the survival model approach appears to be a promising method to predict both expected bus travel times and the uncertainty associated with these travel times. 相似文献
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提出了一种考虑交叉口协调控制的预感应公交信号优先策略,包括两个部分:信号配时优化和协调控制.假设公交车行驶时间已知的情况下,该策略通过按绿信比分配理想时间差和基于公交车站点时空距离转换的改进数解法来实现交叉口的配时优化和协调控制.为了获得该策略的实施效果,以常州市通江南路两相邻交叉口的单个方向为例,设计了四种信号控制情景(无优先、传统优先、预感应优先和预感应协调优先),并利用微观仿真软件VISSIM进行仿真分析.结果表明,四种情景中预感应协调优先策略大大减小了公交在交叉口的延误,提升了公交服务的可靠性,并且对社会车流的干扰最小. 相似文献
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在城市交通中,公交站台发挥着重要的作用,但是在公交站台经常会出现公交车不规范停靠的现象,这对乘客和城市交通带来了诸多不便.以南京市三中路为例,对公交车的停靠形式进行了调查,分别从公交站台的通行能力、停靠能力以及一些人为因素方面对公交车的不规范停靠进行了分析.在通行能力方面.计算通行能力并与实测结果进行比较;在停靠能力方... 相似文献
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随着城市交通饱和度的增加,城市所面临的交通压力越来越大.优先发展城市公共交通,提高公共交通的出行比例,将有利于缓解我国城市交通所面临的压力.公交专用道是实施路段公交优先通行的有效技术措施,临时性公交专用道是公交专用道新的设置方式,在保证公交优先的前提下,允许社会车辆在无公交情况下使用此车道.文中首先介绍了临时性公交专用... 相似文献