Examination of factors affecting freeway incident clearance times: a comparison of the generalized F model and several alternative nested models

Traffic incidents are a principal cause of congestion on urban freeways, reducing capacity and creating risks for both involved motorists and incident response personnel. As incident durations increase, the risk of secondary incidents or crashes also becomes problematic. In response to these issues, many road agencies in metropolitan areas have initiated incident management programs aimed at detecting, responding to, and clearing incidents to restore freeways to full capacity as quickly and safely as possible. This study examined those factors that impact the time required by the Michigan Department of Transportation Freeway Courtesy Patrol to clear incidents that occurred on the southeastern Michigan freeway network. These models were developed using traffic flow data, roadway geometry information, and an extensive incident inventory database. A series of parametric hazard duration models were developed, each assuming a different underlying probability distribution for the hazard function. Although each modeling framework provided results that were similar in terms of the direction of factor effects, there was significant variability in terms of the estimated magnitude of these impacts. The generalized F distribution was shown to provide the best fit to the incident clearance time data, and the use of poorer fitting distributions was shown to result in severe over‐estimation or under‐estimation of factor effects. Those factors that were found to impact incident clearance times included the time of day and month when the incident occurred, the geometric and traffic characteristics of the freeway segment, and the characteristics of each incident. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling transit vehicle repair duration and active service time

Abstract

The need for dependable and flexible models of transit vehicle maintenance has been well established in the literature as a means for improving daily operations, capital planning and service quality. Stemming from the practical need to predict the duration of maintenance activities and active service time for buses, this paper uses the principles of duration modeling to address two important questions: what is the duration of vehicle maintenance activities and, given that a bus is in active service, how long will it take? We extend previous work by including exogenous factors directly affecting maintenance duration and active service time in fully parametric duration models and examine such activities for the transit system in Athens (Greece). Results indicate that vehicle age, kilometers travelled and repair type are amongst the most important determinants of maintenance duration.     

Use of duration models for predicting vehicular delay at a US/Canadian border crossing

Delays caused by congestion at the US/Canadian border crossing between Washington state and British Columbia have underscored the need for some sort of intervention. One obvious congestion-mitigation measure would be to estimate delay times and then relay this information to motorists so that they could select among alternative border crossing sites, or delay their trips. This paper applies duration models to estimate vehicular delay and demonstrates the usefulness of such models as a basis for a fully automated motorist information system. The paper also explores the flexibility of duration models, in providing estimates of vehicle delay, by using alternate parametric forms and assessing prediction accuracy.     

路面冷铣刨机的刀具磨损与刀具耐用度

针对路面冷铣刨机刀具的合理使用问题,通过介绍在一定的铣削条件下选定磨损量值,以适应不同的铣削速度、铣刨运动速度和铣刨深度,从而得出路面冷铣刨机铣削用量对刀具磨损和刀具耐用度有着重要的影响,并且给出了刀具耐用度合理数值的确定方法.     

直喷式柴油机燃烧系统三维可视化设计

本文提出一种能够实现三维可视化的燃烧室内燃油分布和喷雾着壁特性计算的方法。该方法可适于任意形状的燃烧室，能反映出喷油压力，喷油嘴结构及安装位置，进气涡流比等参数与燃烧室形状的匹配关系。对采用梅花型缩口燃烧室的ＣＡ６１１０型柴油机，进行了计算分析及实验研究，对本文的方法进行了验证。     

心脏房室隔不同区域细胞复极异质性及其形态学特征

目的　研究房室隔内不同部位细胞复极特性及相应的形态学特征。方法　利用标准玻璃微电极技术 ,对30只家兔房室隔内普通房肌、房室结 (atrioventricularnode ,AVN)、射频消融慢径的有效靶点部位 ,即 :希氏束与冠状窦口连线的中 1/3(M区 )及下 1/3(P区 )进行细胞动作电位的引导 ,之后行组织连续切片 ,光镜下观察M区和P区的形态学特点。结果　房室交界区中不同部位细胞动作电位复极特性 :AVN细胞的动作电位复极 90 %时程 [APD90 ,( 182± 17)ms]分别长于M区、P区及普通房肌细胞的APD90 [( 16 0± 9)ms,( 15 7± 8)ms ,( 15 1± 10 )ms ,P <0 .0 5 ]。普通房肌细胞的APD50 和APD3 0 [( 90± 6 )ms和 ( 70± 7)ms]分别短于AVN、M及P区过渡细胞的APD50 和APD3 0 [( 12 8± 13)ms和 ( 10 9± 12 )ms ,( 114± 9)ms和 ( 93± 8)ms ,( 10 6± 6 )ms和 ( 87± 6 )ms ,P <0 .0 1]。此外 ,在APD50 和APD3 0 上 ,AVN与P区的细胞间亦有显著性差异 (P <0 .0 5 )。M区可见一大束疏松平行排列的过渡细胞束 ,为房室结后延伸。P区可见一些过渡细胞束分别来自冠状窦口前方、下方和左房后壁。结论　房室交界区不同区域细胞间存在复极异质性。M区和P区的过渡细胞束可能与慢传导有关     

Driver's braking behavior approaching pedestrian crossings: a parametric duration model of the speed reduction times

The driver's braking behavior while approaching zebra crossings under different safety measures (curb extensions, parking restrictions, and advance yield markings) and without treatment (baseline condition) was examined. The speed reduction time was the variable used to describe the driver's behavior. Forty‐two drivers drove a driving simulator on an urban scenario in which the baseline condition and the safety measures were implemented. The speed reduction time was modeled with a parametric duration model to compare the effects on driver's braking behavior of vehicle dynamic variables and different countermeasures. The parametric accelerated failure time duration model with a Weibull distribution identified that the vehicle dynamic variables and only the countermeasure curb extensions affected, in a statistically significant way, the driver's speed reduction time in response to a pedestrian crossing. This result shows that the driver, because of the improved visibility of the pedestrian allowed by the curb extensions, was able to receive a clear information and better to adapt his approaching speed to yield to the pedestrian, avoiding abrupt maneuvers. This also means a reduction of likelihood of rear‐end collision due to less aggressive braking. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The use of a hazard-based duration model for imputation of missing personal income data

This paper suggests using a proportional hazard model to predict personal income, for the purpose of imputing missing income data in household travel surveys. The model has a hazard function that comprises two multiplicative components: (1) a non-parametric baseline hazard function that is dependent only on the income level and (2) a function that is dependent only on the other personal attributes of the survey respondents (excluding income). To estimate and validate the model, data is drawn from a travel characteristics survey conducted in Hong Kong in year 2001. The model is found to have a much higher accuracy when compared with a conventional ordered probit model based on the assumption that the logarithm of income is normally distributed.

考虑强地面运动持时的概率分布对桥梁结构概率地震需求的影响

根据桥梁所在场地条件,选择合理的谱加速度衰减关系生成场地中值加速度反应谱,选择合理的持时衰减关系,抽取持时样本,生成2个匹配场地中值加速度反应谱的人工波库,对1座钢筋混凝土桥墩进行非线性动力时程分析,将持时对于EDP概率预计和PSDM的影响与幅值和频谱的影响进行解耦。得到以下结论：（1）考虑持时的分布与否对于EDP概率预计的影响不大,但可以有效地减小离散度,而且对能量需求参数的影响大于对位移需求参数。（2）当选择结构第1模态周期谱加速度和合理的能量需求参数分别作为地面运动强度参数和EDP建立概率地震需求模型时,可以通过选择地震波来考虑持时的影响。     

Design of conformal cooling channels for an automotive part

The cooling system plays a crucial role in determining the productivity and quality of an injection molding process. With the current growth of Solid Freeform Fabrication (SFF) techniques, mold designers have been striving for not only improvement in cooling system performance but also for a method to do so automatically. In this paper, a method is proposed for developing a conformal cooling system that facilitates uniform cooling over the entire mold surface with minimum cycle time. Based on the temperature distribution after the filling stage, the mold surface is split into zones which will be cooled by optimized subconformal channels obtained from the optimization process. The optimization process in which the objective function is stated as minimization of the cooling time with boundaries ensuring a realistic design will optimize the cooling system layout in terms of cooling channel size and location. Finally, all subcooling channels are combined to generate the entire conformal cooling system for the injection mold.