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交通需求管理和控制与时间因素密切相关,对出行时耗的研究是出行行为分析的重要内容. 本文提出了用于出行时间分析的持续时间模型,讨论了通勤者日出行时间投入随出行者及其家庭社会经济属性、活动和出行特征变化的连续分布规律. 模型用已投入出行时间约束下出行结束的条件概率更准确地描述了出行的动态过程,从对活动与出行之间派生和竞争关系的分析,部分地反映了通勤者的时间分配行为. 分析表明,出行时间最小化的行为假设对大多数通勤者成立. 本研究为出行时耗的定量研究提供了更准确有效的分析工具,对于准确把握通勤者时间分配行为有重要意义.     

长周期倒计时信号控制对排队消散特性的影响

长周期和倒计时是中国相对于发达国家城市道路交叉口信号控制方案的两个独有特征。基于实证数据分析两类信号控制特征对车辆排队消散特性的影响。共观测天津市两处典型的长周期倒计时信号控制交叉口的7条直行车道。实证数据表明,中国城市道路交叉口长周期倒计时信号控制下的排队消散过程大致可分为3个阶段：启动阶段、稳定阶段和上升阶段。通过有序样品聚类的方法确定3个阶段的分割点。这与HCM 2010等经典理论假设的排队消散特性明显不同,因此分析传统通行能力估计算法HCM 2010的适用性,并提出简单线性法、抛物线法和两段线法3种通行能力估计方法以减少传统方法估计中的误差。通过比较发现,抛物线与两段线拟合方法对通行能力的估计较为准确,均方根误差( RMSE )均小于30 pcu·h-1。     

矿物掺合料高性能混凝土的抗裂性研究

针对目前应用混凝土平板法试验、抗裂系数评价高性能混凝土的抗裂性能过程中,尚存在的不足之处,从吹风起始时间、抗裂系数计算参数选取等角度,对低水胶比粉煤灰混凝土、大掺量磨细矿渣混凝土的抗裂性能进行比较.结果表明:平板法试验时,吹风起始时间对混凝土的表面裂缝状况有显著的影响,在混凝土初凝之前,吹风起始时间越早,混凝土表面出现...     

汽车电控燃油喷射模拟系统的开发

以汽车电控燃油喷射系统基本喷油持续时间的控制为出发点,旨在开发一套汽车电控燃油喷射模拟系统的教学设备。通过进气歧管压力、发动机转速和基本燃油喷射持续时间(喷油脉宽)的测量,得到发动机的喷油脉宽三维脉谱图(MAP),存于单片机ROM中;设计模拟系统硬件电路并对电控单元编程,实时显示传感器检测到的进气歧管压力、发动机转速和喷油脉宽,并控制驱动喷油器工作。     

运用车流波动理论分析大货车混入对快速路车流的影响

随着城市对外交通需求的增加,大量大型货车进入快速路,大货车由于慢速引起后随车辆被迫减速,造成车流整体通行效率严重降低。运用车流波动理论确定大货车占道所引起车流的状态变化,定量分析大货车速度及其占道长度与堵塞时间、受阻车辆数之间的关系,从而说明大货车占道对车流延误的影响程度。通过定量分析明确划分大货车车道、快速路最低限速以及限制快速路大货车比例的重要性,从而为快速路混合车流管理提供依据。     

通航历时对沿海散货港区航道通过能力的影响分析

航道是整个港航生产作业系统的一部分,其通过能力影响因素众多,计算过程复杂。在分析众多因素的前提下,运用Arena仿真软件建立散货港区船舶进出港作业过程仿真模型。仿真结果表明:单线航道通过能力与船舶通航历时之间呈负指数分布关系,并且AWT/AST值越大,其负指数分布曲线拟合度越高;双线航道通过能力不受通航历时的影响。     

Duration analysis for recurrent ship accidents

About 63% of the world’s shipping accidents are recurrent—they occur to ships that have already experienced at least one prior accident. Therefore, reducing recurrent accidents can contribute significantly to maritime safety. We study the factors affecting both first and recurrent accidents, by focusing on the duration between two accidents. Cox proportional hazard models are applied to ship accident data from 1996 to 2015, and the results identify which ships have a high risk of recurrent accidents, based on ship attributes, ship supply and market conditions, shipbuilding country, previous accident type, and ship type. The recurrent rate is high when the ship involved in the accident is old, small, flies a flag of convenience, and has no detention record. In addition, the accident risk increases when the shipping market faces a high bunker price, overcapacity in supply, a high time charter rate, or low newbuilding price. On the other hand, ships built in China and Japan have lower recurrent accident rates than those built elsewhere, although ships built in China have earlier first accidents than do others. General cargo ships have the highest recurrent accident rate, followed by dry bulkers, container ships, and tankers, in that order.     

柴油机高压共轨喷油系统结构参数匹配

为提升发动机性能,进行了高压共轨喷油系统与大功率柴油机的匹配研究。在分析柴油机基本参数的基础上,通过计算喷油系统结构匹配参数,设计了高压共轨系统共轨组件,研究了喷油器流量参数,进行了共轨管的设计匹配。实验证明,所匹配的高压共轨系统满足快速建立和稳定共轨压力的要求。     

浅谈影响砂石路面扫浆保护层使用周期的因素及解决办法]

简述了砂石路面扫浆养护法并分析影响扫浆保护层使用周期的诸项因素及注意事项。     

Competing risks analysis on traffic accident duration time

Different clearance methods in traffic accident management lead to varied duration distributions. Apart from investigating the influence of various factors associated with accidents on the duration of such accidents using different clearance methods, this study also examines the cumulative incidence probability. We used traffic accident data obtained for 12 months from the Fourth Ring Expressway main line in Beijing to develop a subdistribution hazard regression model, which can assess the risk factors of two clearance methods. The regression results show that the different factors have statistically significant effects on the duration of two accident groups with different clearance methods; furthermore, opposite effects occur even for some factors that have a strong effect on both accident groups. For example, an accident involving a taxi extends the duration time with clearance method 1; in comparison, the accident is shorter with clearance method 2. The predicted cumulative incidence curves of the two types of clearance methods are shown as examples, with stratification based on the influence factors (taxi involved, season). Finally, the Gray test of the cumulative incidence functions and the log‐rank test of the Kaplan–Meier estimates of the survival functions are compared, in order to demonstrate the importance of using proper methods for analyses. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.