交通模型的价值

在既有规划编制导则中,已经明确交通模型和交通需求分析是综合交通体系规划、轨道交通线网规划的重要工作内容。交通模型的价值并非仅仅体现在预测结果和精度上,更在于编制过程中对交通特征和供需关系的分析,对战略方案、系统方案的指导、解释、论证的作用上。但在现实规划编制中,模型的地位和价值在丧失,日益成为项目成果中的摆设品,难以支撑交通需求深入分析,并与战略构思、方案制定相脱节。与此同时,规划实践、大数据、交通模型的发展趋势,亟须重新审视模型的价值,提升模型精细化的定量分析水平。最后,从机制保障、应用推广、功能拓展、科研攻关等方面,提出促进模型价值提升的相关建议。     

车辆动力学仿真中关键元件的建模

为了提高车辆动力学模型中非线性元件数学模型的模拟精度,分析了一、二维干摩擦副、三大件转向架的摩擦楔块和带串联刚度阻尼器的动力学性能,建立了非传统的数学模型,即不含速度状态变量的模型,并设计了对应的Simulink程序,用典型例题与传统模型的性能进行了对比分析。分析结果表明:非传统数学模型能克服强非线性带来的数值计算问题,提高了计算精度和计算效率,一般根据不同模型的规模和非线性元件数,计算速度能提高2~10倍。     

A Bayesian Methodology for Estimating the Impacts of Improved Coastal Ocean Information on the Marine Recreational Fishing Industry

The study develops a model of recreational fish catch probabilities, based on angler fishing strategies, that is conditional on uncertain information about the coastal ocean environment. We calculate expected catch based on a hypothetical Baseline Data Set and hypothetical data from an Integrated Ocean Observation System (IOOS) to demonstrate potential benefits from IOOS. The role of Bayesian probabilities in Random Utility Models of recreational fishing is identified. The study discusses the types of information that will be required by recreational anglers in the Gulf of Mexico. Results have implications for the construction of ocean observation systems for recreational fishermen.     

Experimental and finite element analysis of fatigue strength for 300 mm2 copper power conductor

The fatigue strength of a 300 mm² stranded copper conductor was investigated experimentally and by finite element (FE) analysis. An analytical model was also developed and validated. Wires taken from the outer layer of the conductor were fatigue tested in tension–tension loading and compared with similar data for wires taken from a 95 mm² conductor. The wire cross section was deformed due to the compacting process that was applied during fabrication. When corrected for stress concentrations due to the deformation the data for the two sets of wire fell within the same scatter-band. Full scale testing was carried out in a specially designed rig with constant tensile load and reversed displacement controlled bending with a fixed curvature variation. The loading is a simulation of the loading of a power cable hanging from a floating vessel through a bellmouth. Conductors were tested in two states; dry and lubricated. A finite element model was established for the copper conductor. The model was formulated by a combination of elastic beam and beam-contact elements that included the effects of friction. The effect of local bending due to contact forces was included in the model. Two contact conditions were investigated; the point (trellis) contact between adjacent layers of wire and the inline contact within each layer and between the first layer (centre wire) and the second layer. The FE model was validated by a calibration test of a full scale conductor, and by sensitivity studies varying the size and the number of elements of the model. Fatigue analysis of the conductor was carried out, based on the S–N curve for individual wires. Taking into account the effects of friction and local bending, agreement was obtained between predicted and experimental fatigue strength of the conductor, for the FE model as well as the analytical model.     

Modelling parking choices considering user heterogeneity

We examine car driver’s behaviour when choosing a parking place; the alternatives available are free on-street parking, paid on-street parking and parking in an underground multi-storey car park. A mixed logit model, allowing for correlation between random taste parameters and estimated using stated choice data, is used to infer values of time, both when looking for a parking space and for accessing the final destination. Apart from the cost of parking, we found that vehicle age was a key variable when choosing where to park in Spain. We also found that the perception of the parking charge was fairly heterogeneous, depending both on the drivers’ income levels and whether or not they were local residents. Our results can be generalised for personalised policy making related with parking demand management.     

基于社交网络的民航旅客偏好建模

从社会网络的视角，提出了一种旅客个体偏好与关系偏好相结合的建模方法．首先，从旅客的历史出行记录中，构建基于共同出行关系的旅客社会网络；然后，构建旅客个体偏好模型和旅客关系偏好模型；最后，基于旅客偏好模型给旅客推荐座位．在民航领域的一个真实的数据集上进行了实验，证明本文提出的偏好模型能够有机地将旅客个体偏好与关系偏好结合起来，较好地描述旅客对航班座位的偏好．     

南宁市交通管理和控制系统优化方案分析工具的建立

交通仿真是采用计算机数字模型来反映复杂的交通现象,对交通运动随时间和空间的变化进行跟踪描述和分析。不同精度的交通仿真模型有不同的优缺点,要客观的评估城市的交通管理和控制系统优化措施,应将不同精度的模型配合,作为分析工具。本次研究采用中宏观的SATURN作为主导模型,对南宁市的宏观的交通进行整体分析,以及对不同交通改善方案进行评估。选用TSIS、SYNCHRO交通仿真软件作为辅助的交通分析工具,对局部地区的交通及信号配时作较为具体的分析,以利于本研究针对各种建议方案进行客观性的整合分析与应用。     

存在车辆干扰的车道线识别

为避免道路上行驶的其它车辆对车道线识别的干扰,提出了一种结合车辆识别的车道线识别方法。融合雷达数据,车辆识别模块首先在图像中识别出车辆占据的区域;对于每一个车道线识别模块挑出的车道线候选点进行判断,去除处于车辆区域的车道线点;如果有效车道线点数目不足,则利用卡尔曼滤波的跟踪结果,确定符合最小风险函数的车道线位置。经过多种工况下的试验验证,该方法能够稳定地对车道线进行识别,准确地提取车道线参数,并且算法对车辆干扰有良好的抵抗能力。     

Multi-objective optimization of quarter-car models with a passive or semi-active suspension system

A systematic methodology is applied in an effort to select optimum values for the suspension damping and stiffness parameters of two degrees of freedom quarter-car models, subjected to road excitation. First, models involving passive suspension dampers with constant or dual rate characteristics are considered. In addition, models with semi-active suspensions are also examined. Moreover, special emphasis is put in modeling possible temporary separations of the wheel from the ground. For all these models, appropriate methodologies are employed for capturing the motions of the vehicle resulting from passing with a constant horizontal speed over roads involving an isolated or a distributed geometric irregularity. The optimization process is based on three suitable performance criteria, related to ride comfort, suspension travel and road holding of the vehicle and yielding the most important suspension stiffness and damping parameters. As these criteria are conflicting, a suitable multi-objective optimization methodology is set up and applied. As a result, a series of diagrams with typical numerical results are presented and compared in both the corresponding objective spaces (in the form of classical Pareto fronts) and parameter spaces.     

Biodynamic responses of seated pregnant subjects exposed to vertical vibrations in driving conditions

A pregnant woman's body is a very sophisticated dynamic system that is sensitive to whole-body vibrations in a sitting posture. While much effort has been devoted to vibration effects on non-pregnant seated persons, little research has been devoted to the biodynamic responses of seated pregnant women exposed to vertical vibrations, especially in driving conditions. In this study a thorough survey of lumped-parameter models for non-pregnant seated persons is implemented. According to the literature the mathematical models adequate for representing the increase in mass due to pregnancy are proposed and evaluated systematically. On the basis of an analytical study and experimental validation, the six-degree-of-freedom model modified from the non-linear model proposed by Muksian and Nash is recommended. In addition, the recommended pregnant model is further integrated with two-dimensional half-car and three-dimensional full-car models to assess the responses of pregnant drivers or passengers exposed to vertical vibrations due to road unevenness. It is believed that the study presented in this report provides a profound understanding of biodynamic responses of seated pregnant women and that it may offer vehicle engineers a good reference in the design of vehicle suspension systems.