A cause of oversupply and failure in the shipping market: measuring herding behavior effects

ABSTRACT

The shipping market is volatile. In general, the shipping market cycle shows four stages, through—recovery—peak—collapse, while a upward trend lasts for 7~8 years and a downward trend for another 7~8 years. So the market’s bubble is not sustainable but always ends in a recessionary trend. The economic cycle is common knowledge and an axiom of the shipping industry, but many ship-owners take no account of it. Previous study stated that ship-owners’ fears, triggered by a violently changeable market, make them mimic the crowd mind or herd mentality, following market sentiment. This study aims to measure the effects of herding behavior (HB), triggered by market sentiment, on the shipping market. We attempt to address two research questions: (1) How does HB arise, and what course does it follow? (2) How many vessels (or how many tons) were purchased under the influence of HB? We estimate that 50.5% (227.8 vessels) of the total vessels or 30.4% (3,670.2 tons) of the total tonnage were purchased under the influence of HB. Looking at international finance, we found that ship investment HB is a very strong factor of the recent shipping market, at least in Korea.     

中国纯电动乘用车政策

我国新能源汽车正在蓬勃发展,其发展离不开政府的政策扶持。文章介绍了中国纯电动乘用车政策,同时阐述了各地方政府的优惠政策和拟出台的《纯电动乘用车技术条件》标准。指出目前我国电动乘用车水平与国外差距较大,国家和地方政府鼓励政策力度不够,许多问题仍然没有成熟的解决方案,今后应该认真总结经验教训,研制功能完善的新能源汽车。     

关于我国现代物流发展的思考

在全球经济一体化和信息化的推动下.现代物流业已从原来单纯的运输业发展为以物 流企业为主体、涉及生产、流通和消费过程的现代物流系统.随着经济的发展.作为国民经济动 脉的现代物流业将越来越为各国所重视.本文在分析我国物流业发展历史和现状的荃础上.提 出了加快我国现代物流发展的几点思考.     

Projected prevalence of car-sharing in four Asian-Pacific countries in 2030: What the experts think

This paper presents a “big-picture view” for policymakers and related stakeholders regarding the future development of car-sharing services. Car-sharing has the potential to significantly disrupt the personal mobility market. Thus, understanding their market penetration and implications is urgently needed. Previous studies in this domain have predominantly focused on the views, opinions, and preferences of consumers. In this study, we complement the current demand modelling research on car-sharing by applying an expert elicitation and aggregation technique that relies on transport experts’ opinions to investigate the role of car-sharing in the future. Specifically, based on the opinions of mobility suppliers, this research elicits experts’ judgment from across government, industry, and academia to gain insights into the future of car-sharing markets in four countries – Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand. The analysis reveals that, from a mobility supplier’s perspective, energy and vehicle prices will not have a statistically significant impact on the future adoption of car-sharing. The results also show that the more knowledgeable an expert is, the more pessimistic they are about the market penetration of car-sharing in 2016, and the more optimistic they are about the prevalence of car-sharing in 2030.     

Airline network choice and market coverage under high-speed rail competition

While the existing literature has focused on the short-term impacts, this paper investigates the long-term impacts of high-speed rail (HSR) competition on airlines. An analytical model is developed to study how an airline may change its network and market coverage when facing HSR competition on trunk routes. We show that prior to HSR competition, an airline is more likely to adopt a fully-connected network and cover fewer fringe markets if the trunk market is large. Under HSR competition, the airline will, for a given network structure, have a greater incentive to cover more fringe (regional or foreign) markets if the trunk market is large, or the airline network is close to hub-and-spoke. Further, the airline will, for any given market coverage, move towards a hub-and-spoke network when the trunk market is large, or the number of fringe markets covered by the airline network is large. Both effects are more prominent when the decreasing rate of airline density economies is large. We further show that HSR competition can induce the airline to adopt network structure and market coverage that are closer to the socially optimal ones, thereby suggesting a new source of welfare gain from HSR based on its long-term impacts on airlines. Implications for operators, policy makers and specific countries (such as China) are also discussed.     

哈尔滨局集团公司货运智能决策支持系统研究

为加强哈尔滨局集团公司各系统间货运数据资源整合,提升营销精准度,在众多物流企业中占据竞争优势,阐述哈尔滨局集团公司铁路货运营销管理现状,针对现有信息系统缺少对市场行情、经济形势的采集和分析等问题,结合商业智能相关技术,分析当前货运营销管理决策的特点及需求,提出构建哈尔滨局集团公司货运智能决策支持系统的目标及架构,设计智能人机交互、智能搜索引擎、市场营销管理、客户行为感知、市场行情监测、自定义报表查询等功能,为哈尔滨局集团公司货运营销管理提供了重要支持。     

我国筑路机械行业迎接“入关”浅议

本文分析了我国重返关贸总协定(简称“入关”)后筑路机械行业的市场供求现状,提出了筑路机械工业为迎接“入关”挑战在经济规模、产业结构、技术质量、管理营销、售后服务等方面的看法。     

海洋运输运价保值市场的研究和创新

国际上创设的多种运费衍生市场，理论上能够起到运费保值的作用，但因市场交易清淡，保值范围非常有限。针对国际集装箱运输市场的特点，本文提出了运费保值市场的架构：创设以做市商为中心的、零售性质的远期运费合同市场，以利于中小型外贸公司规避运价的不确定性，并建立集装箱远期运费协议市场，以便做市商、大货主和大船运公司在衍生市场进行运费保值。     

遵小铁路运输宽城砂石骨料市场竞争力探讨

按照国家及地方推进运输结构调整要求,砂石骨料作为建材市场的大宗货物,基于遵小铁路续扩建工程,宽城的砂石骨料积极推进其供给侧改革及运输"公转铁",加快实现公路运输方式向铁路运输方式的转变。在阐述砂石骨料市场、遵小铁路运输市场、遵小铁路运输径路的基础上,通过构建砂石骨料市场竞争力模型,对京津冀区域砂石骨料市场竞争力进行分析。结果表明,宽城砂石骨料经遵小铁路外运至京津冀区域具备市场竞争力。最后从提高砂石骨料生产品质、加强砂石骨料运输组织、铁路实施差异化运价等方面对提高遵小铁路运输宽城砂石骨料市场竞争力进行探讨,为资源型城市发展砂石骨料绿色生产及运输提供借鉴。     

近年摩托车产品技术性贸易措施通报情况及应对措施

自我国加入WTO以来,外贸出口需严格按照世贸规则,遵守世贸各国的技术性贸易措施的规定。客观看待各国的TBT通报,是要警惕发达国家在通报中所设置的技术性贸易壁垒给我国产品出口造成的人为门槛,同时也要了解它＂双刃剑＂的特性,它不仅是各国所设置的市场准入障碍,更是国际最新技术发展方向的风向标。