2009年乘用车市场分析与预测

2008年全球出现金融危机,世界各国的实体经济已经受到金融危机的严重影响,但我国的宏观经济形势要好于其他受金融危机影响的国家。文章从市场发展规律、经济增长和特殊因素分析和预测了2009年乘用车市场,指出我国2009年汽车市场仍有快速增长的基础,经济增长动力更大程度地依靠扩大内需,同时燃油税改革和汽车鼓励政策也刺激了乘用车需求的增长。     

Post-entry container port capacity expansion

Port capacity development is a critical strategy for the growth of a new port, as well as for the development of existing ones, when both new and existing ports serve the same hinterland but have different competitive conditions. To study this strategy, we develop a two-stage duopoly model that comprises the pricing and capacity decisions of two heterogeneous players serving an increasing market. We identify the necessary condition for a port to increase its profit through capacity expansion, and characterize the condition when preemptive pricing by the dominant player is neither credible nor effective in preventing the smaller player from gaining market share. We also find the pure-strategy Nash equilibrium in the capacity expansion game for two ports that have different price sensitivities, as well as different operation and capacity investment costs. We apply the model results to the container port competition between Hong Kong and Shenzhen after Shenzhen port started its container operation in 1991. Our analysis explains the transition of market power from monopoly to duopoly, the fast development of Shenzhen Port, and the possible market structure changes with the continuing increase in demand.     

Grouping travelers on the basis of their different car and transit levels of use

Market segmentation studies in travel behavior research are ordinarily based on socioeconomic characteristics and personality traits. This study explores the usefulness of a different approach, where the actual overall mobility levels across different ground transportation modes, along with desired changes in the use of cars and transit, are used as clustering variables. Using a given mode can in fact influence the personal representation of that mode, which in turn has been proven to be a key element in transport behaviours. We form such multimodality-based clusters from two field studies, one involving employees of the French transportation research institute INRETS and the other a representative sample of residents of the US San Francisco Bay Area. We find that strong users of a given mode would like to bring more balance to their “modal consumptions” by decreasing the use of this mode more than the average, and increasing the use of the alternative mode. However, concerning ground transport travel budgets, the desire to travel more (or less) overall seems less strongly related to the composition of the modal balance. The US dataset shows also a greater latent demand for travel than the French one. Socioeconomic characteristics of the clusters could not explain the patterns that were found, confirming the importance of taking into account multimodality issues in travel behavior research. Some policy implications from these findings are finally reported.

Quantifying drivers’ acceptance of renewable fuel standard: Results from a choice experiment in South Korea

The production and use of renewable fuels in the transport sector are rapidly increasing. Renewable fuel standard (RFS) is a strong regulatory component and quantitative policy expected to have a significant market impact. In Korea, RFS implementation was agreed upon in July 2013 and will be enforced beginning in July 2015. Drivers’ acceptance is the most important consideration for RFS introduction and sustainable implementation. This study analyzed Korean customer preferences for RFS and quantified their acceptance level according to policy design. A choice experiment was analyzed with a mixed logit model to reflect the heterogeneity of respondents’ preferences. Respondents were relatively sensitive to the price increase, while other attributes had little effect on acceptance of RFS. Differences between the influences of attributes on drivers’ acceptance should be considered when designing RFS implementation. Furthermore, it is recommended that the price of transportation fuels should be limited to an increase between KRW 10 and 20/liter (USD 8.879 × 10⁻³ and 1.776 × 10⁻²/liter) to ensure high acceptance level, secure a budget for infrastructure, and achieve substantial environmental improvement.     

Mobility and environment improvement of signalized networks through Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communications

Traffic signals, even though crucial for safe operations of busy intersections, are one of the leading causes of travel delays in urban settings, as well as the reason why billions of gallons of fuel are burned, and tons of toxic pollutants released to the atmosphere each year by idling engines. Recent advances in cellular networks and dedicated short-range communications make Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communications a reality, as individual cars and traffic signals can now be equipped with communication and computing devices. In this paper, we first presented an integrated simulator with V2I, a car-following model and an emission model to simulate the behavior of vehicles at signalized intersections and calculate travel delays in queues, vehicle emissions, and fuel consumption. We then present a hierarchical green driving strategy based on feedback control to smooth stop-and-go traffic in signalized networks, where signals can disseminate traffic signal information and loop detector data to connected vehicles through V2I communications. In this strategy, the control variable is an individual advisory speed limit for each equipped vehicle, which is calculated from its location, signal settings, and traffic conditions. Finally, we quantify the mobility and environment improvements of the green driving strategy with respect to market penetration rates of equipped vehicles, traffic conditions, communication characteristics, location accuracy, and the car-following model itself, both in isolated and non-isolated intersections. In particular, we demonstrate savings of around 15% in travel delays and around 8% in fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Different from many existing ecodriving strategies in signalized road networks, where vehicles’ speed profiles are totally controlled, our strategy is hierarchical, since only the speed limit is provided, and vehicles still have to follow their leaders. Such a strategy is crucial for maintaining safety with mixed vehicles.     

柴油-天然气双燃料重卡简介及市场前景分析

通过分析国内天然气行业现状和天然气重卡销售情况,认为目前发展柴油-天然气双燃料重卡更符合我国国情。该双燃料重卡突破纯天然气汽车续驶里程限制,不仅降低运营成本而且节能环保,在技术性能、二手车买卖、应用前景等方面更具市场推广价值。     

加入WTO后对我国船舶工业的影响及应对

该文介绍了世界造船业和我国造船业的现状 ,分析了我国加入WTO后对我船舶工业的影响及所面临的挑战 ,并提出了一些应考虑的意见。     

我国商用汽车电子产业现状及发展方向

在介绍国内外汽车电子应用水平和市场前景的基础上,分析汽车电子技术的发展趋势,提出我国近阶段汽车电子产品的研发方向。     

Percolation phenomenon in connected vehicle network through a multi-agent approach: Mobility benefits and market penetration

This paper presents an integrated multi-agent approach, coupled with percolation theory and network science, to measure the mobility impacts (i.e., mean travel time of the system) of connected vehicle (CVtio) network at varying levels of market penetration rate. We capture the characteristics of a CV network, i.e., node degree distribution, vehicular clustering, and giant component size to verify the existence of percolation phenomenon, and further connect the emergence of mobility benefits to the percolation phase transition in the CV network. We show the percolation phase transition properties to appear in a dynamic CV network with time-correlated link and node dynamics. An analytical framework was developed to evaluate the CV network attributes with varying market penetrations (MP) and connection ranges (CR) to identify percolation phenomenon in a mixed CV and Non-CV environment. In addition, a multi-agent CV simulation platform was created to further measure (1) how varying MPs and CRs affect the network-wide mobility measured by the mean travel time of the network; and (2) when percolation transition occurs in CV network to capture the critical MP and CR. Percolation phenomenon in CV network was further validated with the analytical assessments. The results show that (1) percolation phase transition phenomenon is a function of both market penetration and communication range; (2) percolation phase transitions in both mobility and CV network are highly correlated; (3) the application can reduce the average travel time of the system by up to 20% with reasonable market penetration and communication range; (4) critical market penetration is sensitive to communication range, and vice versa; (5) at least 70% of the CVs on the network are required to show in the same cluster for mobility benefits to appear; and (6) for high levels of MP or CR, a low probability of connectivity (PC) does not dramatically change the mean travel time. These results provide solid supports to create evidence-driven frameworks to guide future CV deployment and CV network analysis.     

Low carbon maritime transport: How speed,size and slenderness amounts to substantial capital energy substitution

Three responses that reduce energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in maritime transport are slower speeds, larger vessels and slender hull designs. We use crude oil carriers as our illustrative example; these represent nearly a quarter of international sea cargo movements. We estimate the potential and costs in these which can all be described as capital substituting for energy and emissions. At different degrees of flexibility and time scales: speed reductions are feasible immediately when there are vessels available, though more capital will be tied up in cargo. Deployment of larger and more slender vessels to a greater extent requires fleet renovation, and also investments in ports and infrastructure. A novel finding in our analysis is that if bunker costs rise as a result of emission costs (fees, quotas), then this may depress speeds and emissions more than if they result from higher oil prices. The reason is that for higher oil prices, more capital tied up in cargo may give cargo owners an interest in speeding up, partly counteracting the impulse from fuel costs that tends to slow vessels down. Emission costs, in contrast, do not raise cargo values.