Recovery of inter- and intra-personal heterogeneity using mixed logit models

Most applications of discrete choice models in transportation now utilise a random coefficient specification, such as mixed logit, to represent taste heterogeneity. However, little is known about the ability of these models to capture the heterogeneity in finite samples (as opposed to asymptotically). Also, due to the computational intensity of the standard estimation procedures, several alternative, less demanding methods have been proposed, and yet the relative accuracy of these methods has not been investigated. This is especially true in the context of work looking at joint inter-respondent and intra-respondent variation. This paper presents an overview of the various different estimators, gives insights into some of the theoretical properties, and analyses their performance in a large scale study on simulated data. In particular, we specify 31 different forms of heterogeneity, with multiple versions of each dataset, and with results from over 16,000 mixed logit estimation runs. The findings suggest that variation in tastes over consumers is captured by all the methods, including the simpler versions, at least when sample size is sufficiently large. When tastes vary over choice situations for each consumer, as well as over consumers, the ability of the methods to capture and differentiate the two sources of heterogeneity becomes more tenuous. Only the most computationally intensive approach is able to capture adequately the two sources of variation, but at the cost of very high run times. Our results highlight the difficulty of retrieving taste heterogeneity with only cross-sectional data, providing further evidence of the benefits of repeated choice data. Our findings also suggest that the data requirements of random coefficients models may be more substantial than is commonly assumed, further reinforcing concerns about small sample issues.     

SX6734GE84型发动机横置底盘的方案确定

介绍发动机横置的几种技术途径.通过SX6734GE84型底盘的方案确定做举例说明.     

道路桥梁工程技术专业人才培养方案的探索与实践

道路桥梁工程技术专业是首批国家骨干高职院校建设的重点建设专业,通过3年时间的建设,形成了适应广东地域特色的人才培养方案,并初步取得明显效果。现将探索与实践的思路与过程进行总结,以供相同或相近专业借鉴。     

Experimental Study of Effects of Travel Time Distribution Information on Dynamic Route Choice Behavior

This study focuses on the possibility that providing travelers with information on travel time distribution, along with the existing travel time information, might affect their decision making and enhance traffic control. As an initial step to confirm the effectiveness of travel time distribution information, we use a laboratory experiment to obtain panel data of route choices when information is provided. The rationality of the behavior of the respondents and the characteristics of the route choice are first analyzed by aggregation analysis and then statistically examined by specifying a mixed logit route choice model. As a result, it is revealed that both travel time information and maximum travel time information significantly affect route choice behavior when a penalty is imposed for late arrival.     

城市信号交叉口自行车及行人到达与释放规律

在我国城市交通管理中,对城市信号交叉口处机动车、自行车和行人的混合交通流的有效组织是交通通畅运行的关键。在交通调查的基础上,利用数理统计方法分析城市信号交叉口自行车及行人的到达与释放规律,提出城市信号交叉口自行车及行人的到达分布模型,对城市信号交叉口自行车流的释放饱和流率、释放速度和行人步速进行标定,并对信号交叉口自行车流及行人的交通特性形成原因进行分析。研究结果可应用于城市信号交叉口混合交通控制及管理。     

一种新的预测模型及其应用

在传统累加的GM(1,1)模型基础上,提出了一种新的基于混广义累加生成的GM(1,1)预测模型.给出了混广义累加生成的定义,并在此基础上建立了新模型,研究了该模型的参数辨识和模型的求解算法.给出了预测应用实例,比较分析了该模型和其他几种模型的预测精度,结果表明该模型的预测效果是最优的.     

Mixed Least Square Method for Priority of Complementary Judgement Matrix and Its Algorithm

Introduction Multi-objective decision-making theories play animportant role in modern decision-making science,and have been widely applied to many decision-mak-ing fields, such as systemic optimization, economicevaluation, urban planning, etc. In order to…     

F77船站手柄话机软件模拟器的研制

本文介绍了以VC＋＋6．0为技术平台实现F77船站手柄话机模拟京统的构想、软件的设计思路、编程技术分析和程序流程图。     

客货共线铁路双拱肋大跨度钢桁拱桥设计研究

目前我国钢桁拱桥建设技术已达到国际先进水平,但是大跨度的钢桁拱桥多用于公路,专用于铁路的比较少,以国内单孔跨度最大的双线铁路钢桁拱桥——贵广铁路主跨286 m的东平水道大桥为工程实例进行研究。对其进行平面及空间分析,比较在不同荷载工况下,钢桁拱桥选择不同拱轴线、矢跨比时的内力和应力变化,深入了解铁路大跨度钢桁架拱桥的受力特性。研究表明,该类桥梁结构的拱轴线采用圆曲线和二次抛物线比较合理,并且在合理的范围内,上、下拱肋矢跨比越大,且二者差值越大越经济。     

行星变速器动力学模拟程序

行星变速器在机构动力学的研究范畴内是一个比较简单的“线性约束系统”,本文利用这一特点,以角速度系数矩阵为基础,建立了行星变速器运动学微分方程的统一形式B_K~TJB_Kdω_d~K/dt=B_K~TM。尽管在换档过程中,系统的自由度在不断地变化,但常系数矩阵B_K只与结合的操纵件有关,它通过一个常数矩阵B线性变换得到。基于这一理论,作者调试成功了行星变速器动力学模拟通用程序,为深入分析行星变速器换档过程和行星变速器设计提供了一个手段。