Leave the expressway or not？ Impact of dynamic information

This study investigates drivers＇ diversion decision behavior under expressway variable message signs that provide travel time of both an expressway route and a local street route. Both a conventional cross-sectional logit model and a mixed logit model are developed to model drivers＇ response to travel time information. It is based on the data collected from a stated preference survey in Shanghai, China. The mixed logit model captures the heterogeneity in the value of ＂travel time＂ and ＂number of traffic lights＂ and accounts for correlations among repeated choices of the same respondent. Results show that travel time saving and driving experience serve as positive factors, while the number of traffic lights on the arterial road, expressway use frequency, being a middle-aged driver, and being a driver of an employer-provided car serve as negative factors in diversion. The mixed logit model obviously outperforms the cross-sectional model in dealing with repeated choices and capturing heterogeneity regarding the goodness-of-fit criterion. The significance of standard deviations of random coefficients for travel time and number of traffic lights evidences the existence of hetero- geneity in the driver population. The findings of this study have implications for future efforts in driver behaviormodeling and advanced traveler information system assessment.     

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私家车出行者的通勤出行时间价值是实施和评价道路拥挤收费项目的重要参数之一。本文利用大连市私家车出行者意向调查数据,分别使用Logit模型和时间系数为常数、费用系数服从对数正态分布的Mixed Logit模型来标定私家车出行者通勤出行时间价值。标定的结果显示：两个模型标定结果中的各参数的t值都非常显著;Mixed Logit模型标定结果中的最大似然值和优度比都优于Logit模型;使用Logit模型标定的私家车出行者通勤出行时间价值为24.58元/小时;使用Mixed Logit模型标定的私家车出行者通勤出行时间价值服从参数为2.73和1.09的对数正态分布。在实施和评价道路拥挤收费项目时,推荐使用Mixed Logit模型的标定结果。     

基于Mixed Logit模型的城市轨道交通出行时间价值估计

为了科学合理地制定城市轨道交通需求管理政策,从轨道交通出行行为的角度,考虑了出行者的出行目的、时间、费用以及家庭年收入等因素,针对"上班上学"、"娱乐休闲"两种出行目的,以RP(Revealed Preference)调查数据为依托,分别使用时间参数服从均匀分布、正态分布、对数正态分布的Mixed Logit模型估计城市轨道交通出行时间价值。检验结果表明,时间参数服从对数正态分布的模型优于均匀分布和正态分布。其中,"上班上学"出行者的出行时间价值为10.39元/h,"娱乐休闲"出行者的出行时间价值为8.3元/h。通过研究城市轨道交通出行时间价值,可以更加准确地预测城市轨道交通需求管理政策对出行行为的影响。     

基于换乘协同的轨道交通网列车时刻表优化模型

为最大限度方便乘客换乘,从加强换乘站列车协同接续出发,采用混合整数规划方法构建城市轨道交通网列车时刻表优化模型。充分利用城市轨道交通均匀行车条件下换乘接续列车间会产生稳定的衔接周期这一特性,提出用平均换乘等待时间简化模型变量的规模,从而提高模型的求解效率;在此基础上,建立以各线路首列车发车时刻为决策变量,以路网内所有换乘乘客总的换乘等待时间最小为目标的换乘协同列车时刻表优化模型。以北京市轨道交通网为例,对给出的优化模型进行验证。结果表明:优化后乘客的平均换乘等待时间减少约12%,全网67%换乘方向上乘客的换乘等待时间均有减少;所构建模型能够有效优化列车的运行计划,改善列车在换乘站的协同接续效果,进而提高换乘效率及服务水平,而且较以往模型在运算效率方面有大幅提高,适用于解决为方便乘客换乘的大规模城市轨道交通网的列车时刻表优化问题。     

Locating charging infrastructure for electric buses in Stockholm

Charging infrastructure requirements are being largely debated in the context of urban energy planning for transport electrification. As electric vehicles are gaining momentum, the issue of locating and securing the availability, efficiency and effectiveness of charging infrastructure becomes a complex question that needs to be addressed. This paper presents the structure and application of a model developed for optimizing the distribution of charging infrastructure for electric buses in the urban context, and tests the model for the bus network of Stockholm. The major public bus transport hubs connecting to the train and subway system show the highest concentration of locations chosen by the model for charging station installation. The costs estimated are within an expected range when comparing to the annual bus public transport costs in Stockholm. The model could be adapted for various urban contexts to promptly assist in the transition to fossil-free bus transport. The total costs for the operation of a partially electrified bus system in both optimization cases considered (cost and energy) differ only marginally from the costs for a 100% biodiesel system. This indicates that lower fuel costs for electric buses can balance the high investment costs incurred in building charging infrastructure, while achieving a reduction of up to 51% in emissions and up to 34% in energy use in the bus fleet.     

Dedication to Peter Douglas (August 22, 1942–April 1, 2012)

Ecosystem management has been deemed a promising approach to environmental management in many settings. The ecosystem approach promises improved use of scientific information, better management coordination, and more meaningful public participation in environmental decision making. Yet, there is little evidence for how well ecosystem management efforts actually achieve their goals. This article presents an in‐depth analysis of one ecosystem management effort, the Albemarle‐Pamlico Estuarine Study (APES), which was part of the National Estuary Program. The APES failed to meet the objectives of ecosystem management in several visible ways. However, this case study reveals that the APES also had many positive results that were less visible to participants and observers. The performance of the APES is explained with reference to seven paradoxes inherent in the concept of ecosystem management. These findings have implications for appropriate expectations and evaluation of other ecosystem management efforts.     

服务地方经济建设 促进船检业务发展

《珠江三角洲地区改革发展规划纲要》的颁布实施，对珠三角地区经济社会的发展具有重要战略意义，为珠三角地区船舶工业和航运业的发展提供了历史机遇。本文以珠江三角洲地区相关的船检分支机构[主要以广州海事局（广东省船舶检验局广州分局）为例]如何把握这一历史时期，更好地履行船舶检验职责和体现公共服务职能，发挥专业优势为船舶工业和航运业发展服务，在服务地方经济建设的同时实现自身科学发展为课题进行思考，提出了相应的对策建议。     

Real-time identification of probe vehicle trajectories in the mixed traffic corridor

This paper proposes three enhanced semi-supervised clustering algorithms, namely the Constrained-K-Means (CKM), the Seeded-K-Means (SKM), and the Semi-Supervised Fuzzy c-Means (SFCM), to identify probe vehicle trajectories in the mixed traffic corridor. The proposed algorithms are able to take advantage of the strengthens of topological relation judgment and the semi-supervised learning technique by optimizing the selection of pre-labeling samples and initial clustering centers of the original semi-supervised learning technique based on horizontal Global Positioning System data. The proposed algorithms were validated and evaluated based on the probe vehicle data collected at two mixed corridors on Shanghai’s urban expressways. Results indicate that the enhanced SFCM algorithm could achieve the best performance in terms of clustering purity and Normalized Mutual Information, followed by the CKM algorithm and the SKM algorithm. It may reach a nearly 100% clustering purity for the uncongested conditions and a clustering purity greater than 80% for the congested conditions. Meanwhile, it could improve clustering purity averagely by 21% and 14% for the congested conditions and 6.5% and 6% for the uncongested conditions, as compared with the traditional K-Means algorithm and the basic SFCM. The proposed algorithms can be applied for both on-line and off-line purposes, without the need of historical data. Clustering accuracies under different traffic conditions and possible improvements with the use of historical data are also discussed.     

An integrated programming model for storage management and vehicle scheduling at container terminals

In this paper, we study the optimization of yard operations, which are critical for the terminal efficiency. A linear mixed integer programming (MIP) model is proposed for scheduling different types of equipment and planning the storage strategy in an integrated way. We also investigate a nonlinear mixed integer programming (NLMIP) model to reduce the number of constraints and the computational time. A set of numerical results are carried out for the comparison between the linear model and the nonlinear model. Finally, we propose a genetic algorithm for the MIP model to illustrate how large scale problems can be solved and to show the effect of different factors on the performances of the optimization model.     

Visitor Preferences for Public Beach Amenities and Beach Restoration in South Florida

Coastal erosion threatens many sandy beaches and the ecological, economic, social and cultural amenities they provide. The problem is especially chronic in South Florida. A frequent solution for beach restoration involves sand replacement, or nourishment, but is temporary, expensive, and has usually been funded by governmental sources. However, as such agencies reduce their share and require more local funding, beach nourishment must rely on other funding sources, including beach recreationists. Our study characterized three South Florida beaches and probed visitor willingness-to-pay for beach nourishment. We found that even beaches within close proximity attract different user types. Users are amenable to higher fees if they lead to greater resource protection.