基于模糊聚类理论的TBM施工围岩可掘进性分级预测模型

文章针对硬岩掘进机(TBM)在复杂地质条件下的可掘进性,进行了系统及定量的研究;基于模糊聚类理论和施工样本数据分析,建立了以掘进速率为分级指标,包括岩石单轴抗压强度、岩石完整性系数、围岩结构面与隧道轴线夹角和渗水量四项性质指标的可掘进性分级预测模型,将TBM施工围岩可掘进性分为好、一般和差三个性能等级;并在此基础上进一步细化模型粒度,以提高模型的精度和地质适用性。将所建模型应用于西秦岭隧道和大伙房水库输水隧洞工程实际工程效果表明,TBM掘进速率与由模型预测的掘进速率基本相吻合,验证了掘进性分级预测模型的可行性、科学性和有效性,进而对TBM的选型、设计和施工提供了重要的理论依据。     

城市下穿式矩形框架隧道的力学分析

文章基于结构-荷载理论对城市下穿式矩形框架隧道进行结构模型简化,同时利用有限元软件ANSYS对隧道进行了结构力学分析。分析结果表明矩形框架隧道在拐角处受力最不利,需在结构的设计及施工中根据结构截面强度验算进行配筋加厚处理,以保证隧道结构的安全。     

A shockwave profile model for traffic flow on congested urban arterials

In this paper a new traffic flow model for congested arterial networks, named shockwave profile model (SPM), is presented. Taking advantage of the fact that traffic states within a congested link can be simplified as free-flow, saturated, and jammed conditions, SPM simulates traffic dynamics by analytically deriving the trajectories of four major shockwaves: queuing, discharge, departure, and compression waves. Unlike conventional macroscopic models, in which space is often discretized into small cells for numerical solutions, SPM treats each homogeneous road segment with constant capacity as a section; and the queuing dynamics within each section are described by tracing the shockwave fronts. SPM is particularly suitable for simulating traffic flow on congested signalized arterials especially with queue spillover problems, where the steady-state periodic pattern of queue build-up and dissipation process may break down. Depending on when and where spillover occurs along a signalized arterial, a large number of queuing patterns may be possible. Therefore it becomes difficult to apply the conventional approach directly to track shockwave fronts. To overcome this difficulty, a novel approach is proposed as part of the SPM, in which queue spillover is treated as either extending a red phase or creating new smaller cycles, so that the analytical solutions for tracing the shockwave fronts can be easily applied. Since only the essential features of arterial traffic flow, i.e., queue build-up and dissipation, are considered, SPM significantly reduces the computational load and improves the numerical efficiency. We further validated SPM using real-world traffic signal data collected from a major arterial in the Twin Cities. The results clearly demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the model. We expect that in the future this model can be applied in a number of real-time applications such as arterial performance prediction and signal optimization.     

基于蚁群算法和群决策理论的动态路径优化研究

文章针对城市交通信号控制中的动态路径优化问题,综合考虑相邻交叉口间距和路段交通饱和度两个参数的影响,提出了一种基于蚁群算法和群决策理论的动态路径优化算法模型,并通过仿真实验,对比分析了该算法模型的有效性。     

Incorporating Driver Behaviors in Network Design Problems: Challenges and Opportunities

The goal of a network design problem (NDP) is to make optimal decisions to achieve a certain objective such as minimizing total travel time or maximizing tolls collected in the network. A critical component to NDP is how travelers make their route choices. Researchers in transportation have adopted human decision theories to describe more accurate route choice behaviors. In this paper, we review the NDP with various route choice models: the random utility model (RUM), random regret-minimization (RRM) model, bounded rationality (BR), cumulative prospect theory (CPT), the fuzzy logic model (FLM) and dynamic learning models. Moreover, we identify challenges in applying behavioral route choice models to NDP and opportunities for future research.     

Experiential Incrementalism: On the Theory and Technique to Implement Transport Plans and Policies

The paper describes an approach to the vexing problem of transport planning and policy. It deals jointly with three questions, which in today's practice are addressed separately: How are hypotheses about transport problems and alternatives to their solution developed? How can a good plan or policy be identified? What is the process of implementing a transport plan or policy? In doing this the paper has the ambitious objective of proposing a new model and process for transport planning and policy. It is applicable in developed and developing countries and is not restricted to the transport sector. The paper builds on, and is a reinterpretation of two cornerstone transport planning and decision-making models – the CATS (Chicago Area Transportation Study) Planning and Design Model and Braybrooke and Lindblom's Disjointed Incrementalism. It advances a technique of experiential incrementalism (termed polisanalysis) to develop and implement plans and policies. It proposes that problems should be diagnosed by observation and continuous data collection; that their continuous analysis, finding the “cure”, and implementation take place through the method of experiential incrementalism. In this method interventions are grounded on the theories of neoinstitutional economics and psychoanalysis and derived using contact function, explained in the paper, which renders the method scientific replicability. Experiential incrementalism can employ a wider array of options in planning and policy than is presently thought possible. Like other scientific methods, its application requires rigorous training.     

基于TBM工法的隧洞工程进度定量分析——以引红济石隧洞工程TBM段为例

文章结合QTBM理论,对引红济石隧洞工程前期的开挖进度数据进行了分析统计,结果表明:该工区TBM在Ⅲ类、Ⅳ类围岩中掘进速率较为稳定,而在V类围岩中掘进速率较低;同时,获得了适合该工区的岩体品质参数以及TBM净掘进速率、平均使用率等相关参数;并据此对该工程TBM待开挖段的工程进度进行预测,预测表明剩余6600m的开挖尚需...     

Real time queue length estimation for signalized intersections using travel times from mobile sensors

We study how to estimate real time queue lengths at signalized intersections using intersection travel times collected from mobile traffic sensors. The estimation is based on the observation that critical pattern changes of intersection travel times or delays, such as the discontinuities (i.e., sudden and dramatic increases in travel times) and non-smoothness (i.e., changes of slopes of travel times), indicate signal timing or queue length changes. By detecting these critical points in intersection travel times or delays, the real time queue length can be re-constructed. We first introduce the concept of Queue Rear No-delay Arrival Time which is related to the non-smoothness of queuing delay patterns and queue length changes. We then show how measured intersection travel times from mobile sensors can be processed to generate sample vehicle queuing delays. Under the uniform arrival assumption, the queuing delays reduce linearly within a cycle. The delay pattern can be estimated by a linear fitting method using sample queuing delays. Queue Rear No-delay Arrival Time can then be obtained from the delay pattern, and be used to estimate the maximum and minimum queue lengths of a cycle, based on which the real-time queue length curve can also be constructed. The model and algorithm are tested in a field experiment and in simulation.     

基于灰色马尔可夫理论的油气管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测

以灰色理论的标准GM（1,1）模型和马尔可夫TPM理论为基础,提出了基于灰色马尔可夫理论的油气管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测方法。利用灰色马尔可夫理论预测腐蚀油气管道剩余寿命的步骤主要包括：最大允许腐蚀深度的确定,腐蚀速率的预测以及剩余寿命预测。并基于该方法,采用VB系统开发了实用软件,简便可靠。该方法可以在腐蚀速率波动比较大的情况下预测油气管道的剩余寿命,为油气管道腐蚀检测周期的确定提供了科学依据。     

养护施工总承包模式下业主与承包商的博弈分析

文章以博弈论为理论基础,分析了养护施工总承包模式下业主与总承包商的博弈关系,提出了引导双方采用合理的策略以获得最大利益及保证工程产品达到较高质量水平的博弈对策,为养护施工总承包工程的管理和施工提供方法借鉴。