融合D-S理论的锅炉人因贝叶斯网络安全性定量分析

针对船用锅炉人因安全性分析中存在的知识不确定性,采用D-S证据理论对多专家信息进行融合并建立考虑人因的贝叶斯网络,得到节点条件概率的区间表示形式.经加权平均后代入贝叶斯网络计算,与面向对象贝叶斯网络和FTA等方法的对比显示,该方法能够更加有效地融合不同专家信息,也更为符合工程实际.     

基于“聚焦物流”理论的军事运输发展研究

＂聚焦物流＂是美军提出的一种先进物流理念,它要求在准确的地点、时间提供给联合作战各种参战人员和各类装备数量合适的后勤物资供应,它建立在以网络为基础的实时可视化信息系统之上,高效快速地连接战场指挥官和后勤供应机构,通过物流机构和程序的改革,为联合作战提供多功能的后勤保障。＂聚焦物流＂在历次局部战争中得到很好应用,取得良好...     

高速公路产业特征与企业战略理论

高速公路收费经营企业的发展战略是基于高速公路的基本特征及其未来发展趋势的前提下制定的，因此，理解高速公路的产业特征是制定高速经营发展战略的前提，同时企业战略思想的把握决定着高速公路企业经营发展战略的制定方向。     

Shockwave-based queue estimation approach for undersaturated and oversaturated signalized intersections using multi-source detection data

With the progress of information and sensing technologies, estimating vehicular queue length at signalized intersections becomes feasible and has attracted considerable attention. The existing studies provided a solid theoretical foundation for the estimation; however, the studies have some restrictions or limitations more or less. This paper presents a new methodology for estimating vehicular queue length at signalized intersections using multi-source detection data under both undersaturated and oversaturated conditions. The methodology applies the shockwave theory to model queue dynamics. Using data from probe vehicles and point detectors, analytical formulations for calculating the maximum and minimum (residual) queue lengths of each cycle are developed. Ground truth data were collected from numerical experiments conducted at two intersections in Shanghai, China, to verify the proposed methodology. It is found that the methodology has mean absolute percentage errors of 17.09% and 12.28%, respectively, for maximum queue length estimation in two tests, which are reasonably effective. However, the methodology is unsatisfactory in estimating the residual queue length. Other limitations of the proposed models and algorithms are also discussed in the paper.     

Monitoring marine plankton ecosystems: Identification of the most relevant indicators of the state of an ecosystem

The number of variables involved in the monitoring of an ecosystem can be high and often one of the first stages in the analysis is to reduce the number of variables. We describe a method developed for geological purposes, using the information theory, that enables selection of the most relevant variables. This technique also allows the examination of the asymmetrical relationships between variables. Applied to a set of physical and biological variables (plankton assemblages in four areas of the North Sea), the method shows that biological variables are more informative than physical variables although the controlling factors are mainly physical (sea surface temperature in winter and spring). Among biological variables, diversity measures and warm-water species assemblages are informative for the state of the North Sea pelagic ecosystems while among physical variables sea surface temperature in late winter and early spring are highly informative. Although often used in bioclimatology, the utilisation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index does not seem to provide a lot of information. The method reveals that only the extreme states of this index has an influence on North Sea pelagic ecosystems. The substantial and persistent changes that were detected in the dynamic regime of the North Sea ecosystems and called regime shift are detected by the method and corresponds to the timing of other shifts described in the literature for some European Systems such as the Baltic and the Mediterranean Sea when both physical and biological variables are considered.     

城市道路交叉口借道右转车道设置方法

为了弥补交叉口空间布局中对借道右转车道研究的不足,分析了借道右转车辆在两相邻交叉口间的运行过程,将两交叉口间距分为四部分。采用波动理论、考虑驾驶员的操作顺适性以及采用概率论方法,建立了借道右转的右转车道适宜开口位置模型、借道右转的绿化带开口长度模型和路段右转车辆的合流段长度模型,在此基础上得到了实施借道右转的两交叉口最小间距模型。实例分析表明,所得模型符合两相邻交叉口间的交通流运行实际,对于判断两相邻交叉口是否适合于设置借道右转,以及设置借道右转时如何对各构成部分进行分析具有指导意义。     

负温混凝土冻害及防冻模型的探讨

通过分析温度对混凝土的损伤机理,尤其是混凝土冻害机理,发展了抗冻临界强度理论和早期结构形成学说,从微观角度定性地描述了负温混凝土防止早期冻害所要形成的结构为抗冻临界界面结构。     

基于图论与故障树结合的控制系统故障诊断

探讨了一种图论与故障树结合的方法，可用于复杂控制系统的故障诊断，主要采用故障树图论模型的算法实现系统的故障诊断。图论（有向图）可直观反映故障传播关系，把故障节点分层，用矩阵表示节点与顶事件的关系，通过矩阵运算出各层节点到顶事件的通路长度，通过底事件的失效率算出各节点关键重要度，确定每条通路的权值，进而确定每一层故障节点的排查次序。矩阵表示便于计算机处理，避开了寻找故障树割集或路集的困难，提高了诊断效率。     

Second-order sum-frequency wave diffraction by a truncated surface-piercing cylinder in bichromatic waves

This work considers the second-order sum-frequency diffraction problem for a stationary truncated surface-piercing circular cylinder in bichromatic waves. The solution method was based on a semianalytical formulation of the second-order sum-frequency diffraction potential. The boundary conditions were properly satisfied by introducing the “locked” and the “free” wave components of the nonlinear velocity potential. The method was validated by comparing the calculated results with numerical data previously reported by other authors. Particular attention was paid to the second-order sum-frequency heave forces and the change in the wave run-up configuration due to the existence of the lower fluid domain underneath the truncated cylinder.