海底输气管道泄漏风险定量分析

由于海底管道工作环境的恶劣性,其失效概率较高,一旦发生泄漏事故,后果严重．本文以某一海洋平台周围海底输气管道为背景,运用海洋工程领域风险评估软件NEPTUNE对不同破损情况下天然气泄漏扩散的情况进行了模拟,计算了泄漏气体点燃概率,预测了泄漏天然气爆炸事故的危害半径,其分析结果对海底管道油气泄漏扩散范围的预测及油气点燃概率计算方法的研究具有一定的参考作用．     

边坡稳定性分析的广义Bishop法

鉴于简化B ishop法作为一种简单实用且精度较高的极限平衡方法却仅限于分析圆弧破坏的缺陷,提出将B ishop法应用于任意滑裂面的广义方法.基于极限平衡理论和简化B ishop法的简化条件,推导其用于一般滑裂面破坏的边坡安全系数计算公式.通过实例分析考证比较该法的精度,并提出取矩中心的确定方法,以保证竖向力简化假设下的精度,为土坡稳定性分析提供了一种简单通用的方法.     

The relevance of international transport costs on food prices: Endogenous and exogenous effects

The paper addresses the problem of transport costs and their influence on food prices for South American imports. While transport does not seem to be in the focus of existing analyses, its impact on food prices might be underestimated and even closely linked to the development of commonly mentioned drivers of food prices. Since transport price formation is a function of demand and supply, drivers of food prices are also expected to impact on transport prices. The authors argue that a number of relevant factors that drive transport costs - and in consequence food prices - can be influenced by policy makers. Based on empirical analysis, the authors explain the functioning of the determinants of transport costs in the segment of international shipping, trying to describe their exogenous and endogenous components. These results are discussed in reference to policy development in the region.     

Numerical simulations of fatigue crack initiation and propagation based on re-tensile plastic zone generating load criterion for in-plane gusset welded joints

Many accidents are caused by fatigue in welded built-up steel structures, and so it is important to estimate the fatigue lives of such structures quantitatively for safety reasons. By assuming that fatigue cracks cannot grow without an accumulation of alternating tensile/compressional plastic strain, one of the authors identified an improved effective stress intensity factor range ΔK _RPG based on the re-tensile plastic zone generating (RPG) load, which represents the driving force for fatigue cracks, and suggested that ΔK _RPG should be used as the parameter to describe fatigue crack growth behavior. The “FLARP” numerical simulation code in which ΔK _RPG is implemented as the fatigue crack growth parameter, was developed in order to predict fatigue crack initiation and propagation behavior. In this paper, it is demonstrated that FLARP gives accurate estimates for fatigue life by comparing the estimated fatigue crack growth curves and S–N curves with the experimental results for in-plane gusset welded joints, which are used in many welded steel structures. Moreover, the effect of induced bending moment due to the linear misalignment in the out of plane direction on the fatigue strength of in-plane gusset welded joints is investigated through numerical simulations.     

生态系统分析方法与农业科技示范园规划

现代农业科技园区建设规划目标是实现经济、生态、社会效益的协调,园区是一个复合的人工生态系统。在规划过程中的一个核心环节就是进行生态系统分析,并在分析的基础上进行生态系统设计。文中讨论了农业园区生态系统分析的目标、步骤,并提出了科技园区的复合生态系统由4个子系统组成,分别是：安全永续的生态环境资源子系统、清洁循环的生态产业经济子系统、自然和谐生态人类住区子系统、先进高效的科技支持和管理决策子系统。     

深潜救生艇对接转裙的结构设计及承载能力分析

提出一种新型水下对接装置,介绍了对接转裙的组成和工作原理,设计了对接转裙的关节结构,阐明了转裙的密封原理,利用有限元方法对转裙耐压壳强度及稳定性进行了分析,研究结果表明了该设计的可行性.在大倾角、高海流、低能见度的工况下,利用该装置,深潜救生艇能够以抵御海流的最佳角度进行安全、准确、快速对接作业.     

全回转起重船主尺度模型研究

分析了国内全回转起重船的发展现状及发展趋势,对现有的船型数据资料进行整理分析,利用EXCEL回归分析、Matlab中BP神经网络工具与RBF神经网络工具分别建立了全回转起重船主尺度与最大起重量的关系模型,并对它们的回归分析误差进行了比较.该模型的建立有利于掌握全回转起重船主尺度要素随起重量的变化规律,对起重船方案设计以及后续的技术经济论证可起指导性作用,有助于该船型的报价设计和初步设计,并可使其总体设计得到优化.     

大侧斜螺旋桨桨叶应力分析

采用求解RANS方程的方法对某大侧斜螺旋桨敞水流场进行模拟,计算得到的推力系数与力矩系数与试验值有很好的一致性.在此基础上,将计算得到的桨叶水动力载荷、离心力载荷和重力载荷导入有限元模型,求解大侧斜螺旋桨桨叶应力场分布.根据应力场分布特点,可知:桨叶除叶根有应力集中区域外,0.5倍半径靠近随边处还存在应力集中区域;在0.5倍半径桨叶切面处,桨叶压力面应力从导边至随边递增,桨叶吸力面应力从导边至随边存在波动.     

基于时间序列与小波分析的船舶柴油机故障诊断

模拟柴油机气阀间隙异常的几种情况,并实时监测柴油机缸盖振动信号.采用时间序列分析方法对船舶柴油机缸盖振动信号功率谱进行识别,采用小波变换方法对各信号进行小波包分解,并提取故障特征频段信号进行功率谱估计,实现精确故障诊断.     

基于三维CAD的船体集成装焊工艺设计与分析系统

根据集成化和工艺优化的设计思想,针对目前国内造船企业生产工艺设计手段水平不高和工艺可靠性分析不够规范的现状,设计开发了基于三维CAD的船体集成装焊工艺准备系统.实现了该系统与焊接工艺FMEA系统的集成,达到了集成焊接工艺设计与分析的目的,从而促进了船体快速工艺设计和工艺可靠性分析,提高了工艺准备的效率和质量.并给出了验证实例.