接地面全熔化条件下冰面轮胎摩擦力的预测

依据流体动力润滑理论和热平衡原理，提出了接地面全熔化条件下冰面轮胎摩擦力的预测模型。结果表明，受不同因素的影响，摩擦系数变化趋势的模型预测同实验结果极为相似，文中分析讨论了影响摩擦力的主要因素，认杰表面模型，滑移率和界面温升等的影响应作为今后相关领域的研究重点。     

高铁盐渍土地区溶陷特性的预测模型及因素敏感性分析

近年来,高速铁路在西北地区建设中遇到大量的盐渍土路基,而盐渍土路基很容易发生溶陷变形,这对高速铁路的平顺性有着极为不利的影响。结合兰新铁路第二双线的盐渍土溶陷病害实例,使用改进的普通固结仪开展单因素溶陷试验,以其试验结果为基础,通过正交设计方法开展多因素交互作用下的盐渍土溶陷试验;采用SPSS软件对试验结果开展逐步回归分析,并根据分析结果中方差大小,消除不显著因素,建立溶陷系数简化预测模型,并对所得预测模型进行验证,确定影响氯盐渍土溶陷预变形的因素敏感性。研究结果表明:影响盐渍土的溶陷系数的敏感性因素由高到低排序依次为压实度,轴向压力,含盐量以及轴向压力与压实度的相互作用,影响所占比例分别为0.463,0.172,0.140,0.092。     

城市小间距交通隧道爆破安全监测及结果分析

根据长沙市小间距交通隧道的爆破安全现场监测结果,进行了安全性评价及地震波衰减规律分析。安全性评价分别采用振速峰值和振速-频率安全判据进行评判,结果表明各测试结构物在测试爆破条件下是安全的,且具有较大的安全空间,可适当增加装药量,以加快施工速度,节约资金。通过萨道夫斯基经验公式回归分析,给出了测试条件下的场地系数K和地震波衰减指数α的值,并由此反演得到任意质点振速峰值预测公式和最大(段)允许装药量的控制公式,且后续施工证明装药量控制值是可靠、安全的。     

基于自适应神经网络模糊推理系统的交叉口交通冲突数预测

自适应神经网络模糊系统在建立对象输入和输出关系时,与传统的数学方法不同,它是基于数据的建模。本文利用这一系统特性,建立平面交叉口交通冲突数与进入交叉口内的左转交通量、右转交通量、直行交通量和行人过街交通量之间模型,提出自适应神经网络模糊系统预测交叉口冲突数的方法,建立一种快速获取交通冲突数的预测方法,为交通冲突数的调查开辟了新的途径。     

Research on Optimizing the Hidden Layer Structure of ANN-Based Model and Its Application in Predicting End-Quench Curves of Steels

IotroductionArtificialneurainetWork(ANN)isahadofinformatboProcessingsystem.ItconsistsofrnanprocessingwtwhichareWandsbolyconnectedoneanothetarerstudying,AN'NcangetinfbrmatiofromtrainjngdaaandcancoirectiyfulunthenoIiljnarmappinghominPuttooutPu.Furthrmore,theest8blishedmodelofANNcanbeusedtopredicttheinfluenceofinputparamt6rsonoutPutvaines.AN'NtechnulgyhasbeenwidelyusedinmaterialandheatndelltdisciPllnebecauseofthepropertieswttonedabove.VNaIayanatai[llusedaneurainetWorktOestirnatehottorsi…     

Online Prediction of Travel Time: Experience From a Pilot Trial

Abstract

This study was designed to present an online model which predicted travel times on an interurban two-lane two-way highway section on the basis of field measurements. The study included two parts: an evaluation of the performance of the model, and an examination of the possibility to improve the model in case of unsatisfactory performance. The model was based on MLP neural networks. The main results of the evaluation showed that the prediction model outperformed a non-predictive system. However, the model for one section had not performed as well during the trial period as was expected. This might be due to a slight change in the congestion phenomenon. After further development, the findings showed that the model could be improved considerably with new data. The main implication was that even a simple prediction model improves the quality of travel time information substantially, compared to estimates based directly on the latest measurements.     

A genetic algorithm-based method for improving quality of travel time prediction intervals

The transportation literature is rich in the application of neural networks for travel time prediction. The uncertainty prevailing in operation of transportation systems, however, highly degrades prediction performance of neural networks. Prediction intervals for neural network outcomes can properly represent the uncertainty associated with the predictions. This paper studies an application of the delta technique for the construction of prediction intervals for bus and freeway travel times. The quality of these intervals strongly depends on the neural network structure and a training hyperparameter. A genetic algorithm–based method is developed that automates the neural network model selection and adjustment of the hyperparameter. Model selection and parameter adjustment is carried out through minimization of a prediction interval-based cost function, which depends on the width and coverage probability of constructed prediction intervals. Experiments conducted using the bus and freeway travel time datasets demonstrate the suitability of the proposed method for improving the quality of constructed prediction intervals in terms of their length and coverage probability.     

燃料电池轿车的室内噪声分析与预测

探讨了利用有限元法对燃料电池车整车车内噪声仿真分析计算的基本方法,包括乘坐室声学模态的分析、车身的结构模态计算以及整车结构声学耦合分析计算,并通过仿真分析找出了造成燃料电池轿车低频噪声大的原因。     

高速公路资产现代化管理技术的研究

伴随着经济的高速发展,中国高速公路经历了惊人的增长速度。高速公路已经成为支持国家经济发展与社会进步的重要基础设施。为了保持高速公路的服务水平、减少高速公路资产损失,延长高速公路使用寿命,需要采用先进的技术对庞大的高速公路资产进行科学管理。本文结合高速公路养护管理状况,讨论了高速公路资产监测与管理的科学方法和关键技术,期望通过新技术的应用,加速我国高速公路资产管理现代化、规范化和科学化建设。