Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

气象信息在船舶管理中的应用

从船舶航行安全、可靠性角度考虑，一个重要的影响因素是航行船舶所在海域的气象状况，因此气象信息对于船舶调度管理起到非常积极重要的作用。如何获取气象信息，并把获取的气象信息融合到电子海图显示平台中，对于航行船舶的监控和管理显得十分有意义。针对如何获取气象信息及如何与电子海图叠加显示两方面的内容进行了论述。     

海员避碰行动各指标相关性的多元回归分析

在获取大量海员避碰行动样本的基础上，通过建立多元线性回归的数学模型，分析了转向时机、转向幅度、目标船舷角、会遇两船的船速比等4个指标与目标船最后通过距离之间的相关性大小，结论对海员避碰行动决策有一定的参考价值。由于样本是在对海员进行航海模拟器训练中获得的，从而说明了用航海模拟器来研究避碰行为的可行性以及STCW公约强化模拟器训练的必要性。     

优化运输结构加快铁路发展

交通运输业的发展受资源环境约束,各种运输方式在资源消耗和环境保护等方面存在较大差异,对资源和环境的影响也不同。我国各种运输方式发展的关键是在资源环境约束条件下协调发展。深入贯彻落实科学发展观,加强统筹协调和宏观调控,推进交通运输结构优化,加快铁路发展,提高铁路运输能力,促进节能减排、资源节约型和环境友好型社会建设。     

台湾海峡主航道船舶定线的研究

在对台湾海峡主航道船舶交通的调查与分析的基础上,应用海上交通工程的理论和方法,对海峡通航环境进行定性和定量分析,揭示海峡中主要交通流模式和交通环境特征,结合IMO《关于船舶定线的一般规定》,规划和设计台湾海峡主航道船舶定线制,并对该定线制方案设计中的技术问题进行了探讨。     

Impacts of motor vehicle operation on water quality in the US – Cleanup costs and policies

This paper investigates the costs of controlling some of the environmental impacts of motor vehicle transportation on groundwater and on surface waters. We estimate that annualized costs of cleaning-up leaking underground storage tanks range from $0.8 billion to $2.1 billion per year over 10 years. Annualized costs of controlling highway runoff from principal arterials in the US are much larger: they range from $2.9 billion to $15.6 billion per year over 20 years (1.6–8.3% of annualized highway transportation expenditures). Some causes of non-point source pollution were unintentionally created by regulations or could be addressed by simple design changes of motor vehicles. A review of applicable measures suggests that effective policies should combine economic incentives, information campaigns, and enforcement, coupled with preventive environmental measures. In general, preventing water pollution from motor vehicles would be much cheaper than cleaning it up.     

基于和谐理念的出租车客运系统发展研究

从行业管理角度出发。采用和谐理念．分析当前出租车客运系统的“负效应”。探讨其表现形式和成因。通过对目前出租车客运系统和谐状态的判断。指出相关的和谐要点和简单措施。     

世界航运人才需求与中国外派海员预测

根据世界航运人才的需求状况,利用航运经济增长模型,测算出2010年世界航海人才的需求量,并运用多种方案预测出2010年中国外派航海人员的数量,以此为中国有关高校的航运人才的培养和相关国际人才中介服务公司的发展提供依据。     

Meta-analysis of public transport demand

The present study uses meta-regression in order to explain the wide variation in elasticity estimates obtained in previous demand studies, and provide summaries of several bus demand elasticities.One important finding as to the price elasticity is that the often cited rule of thumb of −0.3 holds good if quality of service represented by vehicle-kilometres is treated as an exogenous variable, but not when it is treated as endogenous.Based on the results it is recommended that demand models should include car ownership, price of petrol, own price, income and some measure of service among the explanatory variables and that the service variable should be treated as endogenous.In previous meta-studies in this field focus has been on own price elasticity only while this study also includes elasticities with respect to, level of service, income, price of petrol and car ownership. The short run for the US are found to be −0.59, 1.05, −0.62, 0.4 and −1.48 respectively.     

Estimation of value of travel time reliability

In mode choice decision, travelers consider not only travel time but also reliability of its modes. In this paper, reliability was expressed in terms of standard deviation and maximum delay that were measured based on triangular distribution. In order to estimate value of time and value of reliability, the Multinomial and Nested Logit models were used. The analysis results revealed that reliability is an important factor affecting mode choice decisions. Elasticity is used to estimate the impacts of the different policies and system improvements for water transportation mode. Among these policies, decision maker can assess and select the best alternative by doing the benefit and cost analysis based on a new market share, the value of time, and the value of reliability. Finally, a set of promising policies and system improvement of the water transportation were proposed.