基于价值模型的汽车供应链风险评估

汽车供应链具有产业链条长、网络节点企业协同程度高、辐射范围广等特点,在市场环境多变、行业竞争激烈的背景下,其供应链网络的稳定性更易受到各种外部事件的影响。文章在汽车供应链三级网络的基础上引入价值模型,以供应链节点企业的股票价格变化为依托,采用历史模拟法对15家处于汽车供应链不同层级企业的供应链风险水平进行评估。结果显示处于供应链网络中游的核心制造企业相较于上游供应企业和下游经销企业具有更高的供应链风险水平。这为汽车供应链中节点企业的供应链风险评估与管控提供了理论依据和决策支持。     

主观评分法在项目风险管理中的应用

在现代工程项目管理中,风险管理占有越来越重要的地位。针对公路建设项目的特点,对公路项目施工存在的风险进行识别,并运用主观评分法与中位数和上下四分位数的差相结合的方法,对调查结果的数据进行集中度和离散度分析,为决策者提供参考依据。     

呼和浩特局集团公司货运安全信息分析系统设计探讨

在铁路货运安全信息管理的过程中,存在信息来源分散、信息共享程度低、风险类别多样等问题,为充分体现安全信息分析的前瞻性、预见性、针对性,在阐述呼和浩特局集团公司货运安全信息分析工作现状的基础上,针对存在的问题对货运安全信息分析系统架构进行设计,以实现货运安全信息分析系统功能,即:图形化显示、风险分级管控、安全信息的集中管理、综合运用等功能,实现对货运安全信息的全方位、全过程管理,形成调查分析、追踪整改、巩固提高、闭环管理的管理局面,提高预警和风险防控的针对性和有效性,提高铁路货运安全管理和监控水平。     

Evaluation of exclusive bus lanes in a bi-modal degradable road network

In this paper, we proposed an evaluation method of exclusive bus lanes (EBLs) in a bi-modal degradable road network with car and bus transit modes. Link travel time with and without EBLs for two modes is analyzed with link stochastic degradation. Furthermore, route general travel costs are formulated with the uncertainty of link travel time for both modes and the uncertainty of waiting time at a bus stop and in-vehicle congestion costs for the bus mode. The uncertainty of bus waiting time is considered to be relevant to the degradation of the front links of the bus line. A bi-modal user equilibrium model incorporating travelers’ risk adverse behavior is proposed for evaluating EBLs. Finally, two numerical examples are used to illustrate how the road degradation level, travelers’ risk aversion level and the front link’s correlation level with the uncertainty of the bus waiting time affect the results of the user equilibrium model with and without EBLs and how the road degradation level affects the optimal EBLs setting scheme. A paradox of EBLs setting is also illustrated where adding one exclusive bus lane may decrease share of bus.     

Road traffic crashes and risk groups in India: Analysis,interpretations, and prevention strategies

Current literature does not adequately discuss India's quickly changing transportation scenario, especially road traffic crash (RTC) concerns. The objectives of this work were to (a) present the national RTC framework and a case study of Andhra Pradesh (AP); (b) analyze and identify risk types; (c) discuss trends and data deficiencies; and (d) recommend prevention strategies. During the period 1970–2009, the nation's road length increased at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2%, whereas the number of registered vehicles, RTCs, and fatalities grew at 12%, 3.8%, and 5.7% CAGR respectively. Exposure risk dropped from 103 to 11 fatalities per 10 000 vehicles but increased from 2.7 to 10.8 fatalities per 100 000 people.     

基于因子叠加法的滑坡灾害危险性区划——以衡桂高速公路为例

滑坡灾害危险性区划是将区域内产生滑坡灾害的发生条件、外界影响因素、和滑坡灾害的现状进行综合统计分析,定量或半定量地评价区域内滑坡灾害的危险性程度等级。选择湖南省衡桂高速公路滑坡灾害的分类与区划为研究示范区,对衡桂高速公路沿线滑坡灾害进行危险度研究,采用因子叠加法进行滑坡灾害区划。     

An analysis of airport–airline vertical relationships with risk sharing contracts under asymmetric information structures

We analyze the double moral hazard problem at the joint venture type airport–airline vertical relationship, where two parties both contribute efforts to the joint venture but neither of them can see the other’s efforts. With the continuous-time stochastic dynamic programming model, we show that by the de-centralized utility maximizations of two parties under very strict conditions, i.e., optimal efforts’ cost being negligible and their risk averse parameters both asymptotically approaching to zero, the vertical contract could be agreed as the optimal sharing rule, which is the linear function of the final state with the slope being the product of their productivity difference and uncertainty (diffusion rate) level index.If both parties’ productivities are same, or the diffusion rate of the underlying process is unity, optimal linear sharing rule do not depend on the final state. If their conditions not dependent on final state are symmetric as well, then risk sharing disappears completely. In numerical examples, we illustrate the complex impact of uncertainty increase and end-of-period load factor improvement on the optimal sharing rule, and the relatively simple impact on total utility levels.     

Benchmarking airports with specific safety performance measures

The purpose of this paper is to develop safety performance measures and test the measures on data for air traffic management failure events. Failure events are classified by the severity of the consequence of occurrence, resulting in the rate of occurrence in severity categories. The safety measures are standard statistics calculated from this “distribution” for comparison of airport operations by stochastic ordering. For comparisons a benchmark is developed from the aggregation of failure data on a set of comparable airports. Airport performance is then compared with the benchmark using the defined safety measures. The benchmark comparison was implemented with failure data for major airports in Canada from 2005 to 2012. The results show a number of patterns and anomalies and some airports perform poorly in comparison to a class of similar operations. We conclude by suggesting benchmarking safety measures as a natural addition to the information system on aviation safety compiled by a national regulatory body to unravel anomalies such as implementation problems of a safety management system.     

Evaluation of total risk exposure and insurance premiums in the maritime industry

The empirical evaluation of maritime risk exposure is based on the monetary value at risk (MVR) that incorporates individual safety quality data of about 130,000 vessels, insurable values related to various potential damages, and proxies for fractions of values lost at incidents. MVR provides a tool to enhance strategic planning of maritime administrations and insurance providers, which is illustrated by a high level comparison of annual risk exposure with insurance premiums for 2010–2014. The analysis reveals a global annual insurable value of 30.6 trillion USD with associated annual MVR of 38.8 billion USD for very serious and serious incidents. Although oil tankers show the highest risk exposure (1.75 million USD per tanker per year), safety qualities are found to be best for this ship type (1.4% annual incident risk) and worst for container vessels (2.8%). Annual growth rates in total risk exposure are mostly positive with highest value for dry bulk carriers (27.8%), whereas risk exposure tends to decline for pollution of oil tankers (−2.0%) and passenger vessels (−11.3%), and for loss of life of oil tankers (−1.9%) and dry bulk carriers (−1.4%). Comparison across administrative dimensions reveals that most risk exposure lies with old open registries and with beneficial owners and the Document of Compliance companies located in high income countries. Comparison with global insurance premiums suggests reasonably adequate coverage of maritime risks (excluding cargo) with under-insurance of risk by around 5% (about 1 billion USD per year), with some uncertainties remaining for actual loss fractions of the involved damages.     

Exposing the role of exposure: Public transport network risk analysis

Network risk assessment takes into consideration the probability that adverse events occur and the impacts of such disruptions on network functionality. In the context of transport networks, most studies have focused on vulnerability, the reduction in performance indicators given that a disruption occurs. This study presents and applies a method to explicitly account for exposure in identifying and evaluating link criticality in public transport networks. The proposed method is compared with conventional measures that lack exposure information. A criticality assessment is performed by accounting for the probability of a certain event occurring and the corresponding welfare loss. The methodology was applied for a multi-modal public transport network in the Netherlands where data concerning disruptions was available. The results expose the role of exposure in determining link criticality and overall network vulnerability. The findings demonstrate that disregarding exposure risks prioritizing links with high passenger volumes over links with a higher failure probability that are significantly more critical to network performance. The inclusion of exposure allows performing a risk analysis and has consequences on assessing mitigation measures and investment priorities.