宁波港海域船舶突发性溢油风险估算及防治对策

根据宁波海事局对近几年进出宁波港船舶的统计资料，运用概率论和数理统计及环境风险分析的有关知识，对宁波港海域未来几年中船舶发生突发性溢油事故的概率作了估算，然后提出加强宁波港船舶突发性溢油的防治对策。     

Methods for probabilistic safety assessments of ships

 At the 62nd MSC conference (MSC62) in 1993, the UK proposed a new methodology for the consideration of safety regulations. This method is called formal safety assessment (FSA). FSA is an application of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Risk is used as an index of safety. One of the most important parts of FSA is to evaluate the risk to a ship when it is equipped with the safety measures recommended by the proposed safety regulations. The National Maritime Research Institute (NMRI, formerly the Ship Research Institute) has been developing a method which allows the risk to be obtained holistically by utilizing a scientific method. To obtain the risk, the probability and consequences of every accident must be evaluated. This paper examines the following points: (a) a holistic methodology for risk evaluation; (b) a method used in the process of estimating the probability of collision; (c) a method to reduce the numbers of fire escalation scenarios; (d) a trial risk evaluation of cabin fire. Received: January 10, 2002 / Accepted: April 18, 2002     

Risk and reward in rail contracting

This workshop considered the role of risks and rewards in rail transport by considering evidence on the impacts of industry structure, franchising and infrastructure charges. A schema for the allocation of risks and rewards was developed, which indicated that strategic risks should be borne by authorities and operational risks by operators, but that tactical risks were more difficult to allocate and appropriate reward mechanisms more difficult to design. The extent to which these difficulties can be addressed by competitive tendering and alternatives such as trusting partnerships and negotiated performance based contracts was considered.     

不确定型层次分析法在航道通航环境风险评估中的应用

针对航道通航环境评估指标的复杂性、模糊性和不确定性,引入不确定层次分析法AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process),以区间数代替确定值对两因素之间的相对重要性做出判断,建立区间数判断矩阵,利用概率分布法对各最底层元素关于目标层的总组合权重进行排序。实例分析结果表明该方法具有实用性,能够反映航道通航安全的实际状态。     

船舶航行风险形成原因重要度分析与计算

航运是高风险行业。风险形成原因分析是风险分析和风险评估不可缺少的部分。根据船舶航行的特点和实际情况,在风险分析过程中,就如何进行风险原因分析(尤其是人为因素的分析)进行了新的探索。结合IMOMSC/Cir.953和MEPC/Cir.352两个通函和SHEL模型,总结出风险原因的基本内容。利用AHP方法对风险原因进行了调查和分析,得到了船舶航行风险形成原因的各因素重要度,被证明可以在风险评估中有效应用。     

论我国房地产按揭中银行风险的法律防范

随着我国房地产业的发展,房地产按揭这种新的融资购楼方式日渐普遍。但按揭在我国毕竟是新生事物,相关的法律法规并不完善,因而给实际操作带来很大不便。尤其是贷款银行的权益很难得到有效保护。有鉴于此,笔者以此为研究对象,通过对房地产按揭涵义及法律特点的剖析,重点探讨贷款银行风险的法律防范问题。在此基础上,借鉴发达国家的先进经验,具体结合我国当前房地产按揭的现状,进而提出为完善我国贷款银行风险法律防范的建议措施。     

浅议普通公路收费还贷的风险及防范措施

就普通公路建设项目的贷款投资风险及防范措施进行了阐述。     

水下工程施工的风险分析与化解

文章结合水下工程施工实例,介绍水下施工风险分析的必要性,提出降低与化解施工难度与风险的技术措施。     

信息系统安全风险评估模型及其在铁路客票系统中的应用

提出一种基于模糊综合评判理论的信息系统安全风险综合评估模型与方法,实现量化信息系统安全风险的目标。通过确定信息系统的安全风险因素集、指标集以及因素的权重系数集,建立安全风险模糊综合评估矩阵,并应用于铁路客票预定与发售系统的安全风险评估。铁路客票预定与发售系统包括信息资产和物理资产,受到来自系统本身、外部环境以及人为和自然界的安全威胁。应用建立的信息系统安全风险评估模型,定量计算铁路客票预定与发售系统Web组件的安全风险值。根据计算值确定信息系统中的高风险组件,为系统管理与使用部门采取相应的防护技术和管理措施提供理论依据,增强系统安全性。     

Post-disaster debris reverse logistics management under psychological cost minimization

This work presents a novel reverse logistics system for post-disaster debris. Effectiveness of the proposed system is demonstrated by applying it to a case study in Wenchuan County of China. The county was the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008. A multi-objective linear programming model is also formulated capable of systematically minimizing total reverse logistical costs, corresponding environmental and operational risks, and psychological trauma experienced by local residents why they waited for medical treatment and removal of debris. The psychological stress induced during the debris reverse logistic process is the integral of an increasing marginal function of the waiting time for medical treatment and debris removal. Numerical results indicate that when considering risk-induced and psychological costs, the proposed model can reduce such costs associated with post-disaster debris reverse logistics by 22.62% and 54.93%, respectively, from their values when only the logistical costs are minimized. Although reducing the psychological cost of disaster victims, the temporary storage of disaster-hit sites increases the psychological costs of individuals who are processing the debris. We recommend increasing on-site storage and treatment capacities to reduce risk-induced and psychological costs with a lower increase in logistical costs. When the risk tolerance ranges from its minimum value to +25%, the Pareto fronts are closer than those of the risk tolerance increase by more than +25%. Efforts are underway to design a tool based on the Pareto analysis method for future decision making.