潜艇结构的失效模式及影响分析

在结构系统可靠性分析或系统安全分析中，主要是要对系统的失效模式有较深刻的理解。而FMEA（失效模式及影响分析）方法虽然简单，却很实用，能够透彻地理解系统的安全性要求，同时也为结构系统的风险分析（PRA）打下基础。本文对潜艇结构的失效模式与影响分析作了初步研究。     

避碰规则适用的时机

国际海上避碰规则何时开始适用于会遇的两船，不讼对于海上避碰还是对于海上避碰中碰撞责任的划分都是非常重要的。该文对一个多世纪以来英美两国相关的海事判例和学术观点进行了回顾，在此基础上结合典型案例对经进行了分析，并论述了与规则适用问题相关的几种特殊情况。     

Risk assessment for fire safety considering characteristic evacuees and smoke movement in marine fires

In the safety design of marine systems, the matter of human life in the event of a marine fire must be considered. It may be difficult to establish a safe evacuation system because a characteristic behavioral pattern based on human factors is elusive. This study consists of three analyses on (1) the state of smoke diffusion, calculated by the use of a two-layer zone model, (2) evacuation movements, simulated by a group behavioral model, and considering the occurrence of panic and the smoke spreading phase, and (3) the risk index for safety assessment using the results of smoke diffusion and escape movements. This risk index can be used for comparisons between various safety systems, and its validity is confirmed by an evacuation model of common spaces on a typical cruise ship.     

Analysis of train derailment after hitting the pier of tongling yangtze river bridge combined road with railwayEI北大核心

Research purposes: Precise prediction for mechanical behavior of the bridge under ship collision force is important to assess the analysis of train derailment after hitting the pier. This paper focuses on the Tongling Yangtze River Bridge Combined Road with Railway for ship collision simulation, uses the nonlinear finite element software of ANSYS/LS-DYNA to simulate the ship's bow section of 10000 t and 5000 t class hitting bridge tower column at front and axle to 20° of side in highest navigable water level, conventional navigable water level and the minimum navigable water level. Curves of collision force-period at different working conditions are summarized. On this basis, when the impact load affects as input loads, the displacement and acceleration response can be used by finite element analysis under the collision and study the dynamic response of the bridge caused by a train derailment risk. Research conclusions: (1) The impact force of the bridge is largest when a laden ship is hitting the pier at the highest navigable water level. In the most unfavorable condition, the collision have lardge impact on bridge structure and derailment risk of trains. (2) The transverse acceleration of the girder on the top of 2# pier can reach to 0.922 m/s2, but it does not exceed acceleration excitation limit (1 m/s2) when 3# piers are hitted by the 10000 t ship at the peak load of collision, so the probability of train derailment is minimal. (3) Based on the probability formula of the derailment by simplifying risk criteria, the derailment probability of train is 9×10-5~1.5×10-4 during the ship-bridge collision. (4) The research results can provide the reference for train traffic safety on railway bridge caused by ship collisions.     

承包商项目风险管理探讨

在公路项目施工管理过程中,风险管理占有越来越重要的地位.针对公路建设项目的特点,论述了承包商施工过程中常见的风险因素、风险评价方法及应对措施,为风险管理提供一定的参考依据.     

基于CBR的高速公路路基安全风险预测

路基安全是高速公路建设管理的重要内容,然而,传统的风险预测方法难以满足预测精度的需要。本文运用模糊数学的有关理论,介绍了一个基于案例推理（CBR）的高速公路路基安全风险预测模型,并结合实际进行了应用检验。实例表明,该方法具有对案例库的更新功能,能够为高速公路路基安全风险预测提供有价值的参考依据。     

Part 3. Multivariate road safety models: Future research orientations and current use to forecast performance

The third part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the future of road safety modeling and on conjectures concerning the evolution of national safety indicators. In the absence of econometric developments specific to road safety modeling, the research future must rely on pre-existing statistical procedures of econometrics applied to discrete/count and to aggregate data. In terms of contents, growing interest in the heterogeneity of road accident outcomes by category of victims could lead to treatments of this issue across research streams, say by top-down and bottom-up developments, but this speculation does not rest on extant adequate formulations of the issue of road user class and victim analysis. But understanding the time profile of aggregate national performance indicators is quite another matter.     

基于FAHP的双船近距离系泊作业分析研究

针对曹妃甸单点系泊改造项目中双船近距离系泊作业面临的风险问题开展研究,首先针对双船近距离长期作业过程中,可能发生的风险事件、可能后果形式、以及可能的原因进行了系统的分析,接下来探讨了模糊层次分析法的理论及其适用性,并运用该方法对双船近距离系泊作业进行定量风险评估,得到了重要风险因素,并提出了相应的改进控制措施,以保障工程船舶施工作业安全可靠。     

ANP-FE与数值模拟结合在地铁隧道近接施工风险评估与管理中的应用

文章针对地铁隧道近接施工工程风险评估与管理问题,提出了将ANP-FE和数值模拟结合起来的一种全新风险管理理念和方法;在调查、研究和分析得到地铁隧道近接施工风险评价指标体系的基础上,将ANP与FE结合起来对风险进行评估,以解决风险影响因素之间相互依存和反馈的模糊性问题;然后以风险评价结果为依据,制定风险防范和控制措施;进一步对采取对策后的工程开展数值模拟,以此来检验措施的有效性和评价方法的科学性;最后,以广州地铁6号线某近接工程为研究对象,对该风险评估与管理方法的具体实施过程做了详细阐述.实践证明,该理论体系和方法能够有效地对地铁隧道近接施工工程的风险进行评估、控制和管理,提高风险评估过程的科学性.     

轨道交通风险评估WBS工程结构分解准则研究

当前国内轨道交通工程风险评估工作中常用的WBS-RBS风险辨识方法存在不少问题,文章结合工程实践进行了相关研究,明确了工程结构分解法(WBS)的具体分解方法及准则,制定了各分解模块的命名规则.该准则从工程整体上把握风险,遵从风险事件发生特征,避免了传统分类方法存在的重复、不全面等不足;从具体操作流程和分析实例来看,达到了当前风险辨识的目的和风险管控的要求.