机车车辆故障与可靠性分析

论述了机车车辆故障的基本概念 ,包括故障的定义和国内外对机车车辆故障的规定以及故障严重程度的分类。介绍了故障模式、故障机理及故障分析方法 ,包括图示法、FMEA法及故障风险分析。     

追越条款的适用是否以存在碰撞危险为前提

追越条款的适用是否以两船存在碰撞危险为条件，历来存在不同的观点，笔者通过对案件和《规则》条文的分析，提出追越条款的适用不是以两船存在碰撞危险为前提，只要符合构成追越局面的条件，不论当时两船是否存在碰撞危险，追越条款就开始适用。     

我国企业内部控制存在的问题及改善措施

俭业内部控制基本规范》的颁布,拉开了我国全面、系统地完善企业内控管理制度的序幕。文章从对企业内部控制的不同认识出发,阐述建立和完善企业内部控制的必要性;并通过对目前我国企业内部控制存在问题的分析,从控制环境、风险评估、控制活动、信息与交流和监督评审等五个方面入手,提出相应改善措施。     

非直达车流取送方案的中断时间筛选法研究

对放射形专用线非直达车流取送车问题进行了分析,提出了不利方案的判别条件和基于枚举法的中断时间方案筛选法.将送车过程和取车过程作为整体看待,简化了计算和优化过程.通过算例分析,说明了算法的效果和适用条件.     

Risk perception affecting the performance of shipping companies: the moderating effect of China and Korea

Risks in the shipping industry have been highlighted and have attracted significant attention, especially following the bankruptcy of Hanjin in 2017. Due to the decrease in container volume, the business environment for large shipping companies in China has deteriorated. Therefore, major large shipping companies have implemented mixed ownership reform, which provides more opportunities for large Korean shipping companies to enter the Chinese shipping industry. This study first identifies risk perception, specifically focusing on the moderating effect of Chinese and Korean shipping companies, and then demonstrates the impact of these risks on shipping company performance. The results show that market, operational, and technical risks have a negative influence on Chinese shipping companies, whereas market, policy, financial, operations, and technical risks have a negative influence on Korean shipping companies. This study contributes to the fundamental understanding of the effect of risk perception on performance among shipping companies in both countries and calls for further research on risk management plans based on the risk factors identified herein. On a practical level, this study provides an important reference for operators and investors who seek to enter strategic alliances or joint venture in Chinese shipping industry.     

基于FAHP的双船近距离系泊作业分析研究

针对曹妃甸单点系泊改造项目中双船近距离系泊作业面临的风险问题开展研究,首先针对双船近距离长期作业过程中,可能发生的风险事件、可能后果形式、以及可能的原因进行了系统的分析,接下来探讨了模糊层次分析法的理论及其适用性,并运用该方法对双船近距离系泊作业进行定量风险评估,得到了重要风险因素,并提出了相应的改进控制措施,以保障工程船舶施工作业安全可靠。     

透水框架群水力特性试验研究

透水框架群在长江航道整治工程中具有减速、防冲、促淤的特点,在三峡工程蓄水运用后清水下泄促淤有限的条件下,框架群在护滩边缘的防护效果明显,但对其作用机理,特别是透水框架群在整治工程中的水力特性还认识不足。通过水槽试验研究了透水框架群的减速率与摆放高度、孔隙率等因素的相互关系,并对透水框架群内部和尾部的减速效果进行了深入分析,研究结果可为规范护滩边缘结构的设计提供技术支撑。     

Private sector involvement in urban rail: Experience and lessons from South East Asia

Various models for competition and ownership of urban rail systems have been used in South East Asia cities since the early 1990s. The paper reviews and classifies the approaches used in Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Manila and Singapore. The planning, financing, procurement, implementation and operation of these systems, and the institutional context for them, are examined. All of the systems that have used private sector finance for the development of the initial systems have faced financial problems. Optimism bias in demand forecasts and unrealistic expectations for cost recovery of capital intensive systems have been contributing factors. Lessons to be learned include the importance of clear government leadership and sound institutional arrangements, and the need for improved understanding of the best manner in which the private sector can be used to achieve efficient and effective rail projects.     

Suitability of Decision-Theoretic Models to Public Policy Issues Concerning the Provision of Shoreline Stabilization and Hazard Management

This article examines the suitability and potential advances of decision-theoretic models from finance regarding investment decisions in shoreline stabilization projects. A set of scenarios represents the dynamics of the decision-state facing the planner and identifies factors that should be incorporated into the decision-making process. It is shown that decision models from finance can account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in shoreline stabilization projects, potentially suggest improvements and refinements to presently used cost-benefit analysis procedures, and offer new tools that can aid in decisions concerning provision of shoreline stabilization. The outcomes of these scenarios justify better planning and control of existing and future building, and that of poststorm policies. Lastly, these models allow us to explore the range of our understanding of coastal processes and interactions with shoreline stabilization projects and can identify new and useful data needed in coastal management and hazard management decisions.     

A risk assessment model with systematical uncertainty treatment for container shipping operations

ABSTRACT

The substantial adverse effects of risk factors on container shipping and logistics promoted a deep integration of risk analysis into the decision-making process. This paper aims to develop a well-grounded quantitative model to operational risk in a container shipping context. Considering uncertainty as a primary component of the risk concept, methods were employed in an inter-complementary manner to enable not only a sense of foreseeability but also a deeper look into the weaknesses of the knowledge base. The intersubjectivity of the input extraction process was supported by the Evidential Reasoning (ER) algorithm. Risks are then assessed based on a Fuzzy Rules Bayesian Network (FRBN) model with a 2-level parameter structure before meaningful interpretations can be derived through a new risk mapping approach. Besides an illustrative case study, the model was tested by sensitivity analysis and an examination of multiple validity claims.