内转塔单点系泊系统风险评估与设计维护建议

内转塔系泊系统广泛应用于海洋石油FPSO或液化天然气FLNG中。在我国南海海域油田开发中,内转塔系泊系统发挥了重要作用,并已逐渐成为主要的FPSO系泊方式。本文对"海洋石油111"FPSO内转塔系泊系统的失效模式、主要风险因素等进行了分析。通过风险评估确认了主要风险点,对该系统的设计和维护提出了相应的建议。     

Methodological aspects for modeling the environmental risk of transporting hazardous materials by road

The main objective of this paper is to establish the procedures necessary to the development of a model for the environmental risk assessment of accidents involving Transporting Hazardous Materials by Road (THMR). Quantifying the environmental risk is useful in identifying areas with a high risk of accidents, which can be later discarded as main routes; orienting efficient emergency response operations; and assessing policies aimed at reducing these risks. Taking this into consideration, this study endeavors to identify the methodological aspects make possible the assessment of the impacts that arise from accidents involving the transportation of hazardous materials by road and to implement such methodological aspects in a Geographic Information System (GIS).     

Efficient contracting and incentive agreements between regulators and bus operators: The influence of risk preferences of contracting agents on contract choice

Contracts that govern transactions between regulators and operators are an important feature of service delivery in public transport. This paper reviews the literature on efficient contracting in general and its application to public transport contracts and found little empirical evidence on the influence of risk preferences of contracting agents on contract choice, a fundamental premise of classical contracting theory. Departing from the existing literature, this paper develops a choice experiment to study public transport operators’ preferences for different contractual forms. People involved in the public transport industry across Australia are invited to do the survey but the respondents are mainly bus operators in New South Wales. The respondents are offered two hypothetical contracts with different risk profiles and incentives and asked to indicate their preferences as well as their acceptance to provide the services under the contract they prefer. A non-linear scaled multinomial logit model is estimated to establish the role of risk allocation on contract preference of bus operators and the optimal amount of risks and incentives, conditioned on the operators’ attitude towards risk. The results help authorities design performance-based contracts to obtain their objectives while maintaining the operators’ level of satisfaction.     

Cycling near misses: Their frequency,impact, and prevention

This paper explores cyclists’ experiences of non-injury incidents, arguing that these are important for cycling experience and uptake as well as for injury prevention. It discusses different types of non-injury incident collected in a recent survey of UK cyclists. These are everyday occurrences that in some cases have a substantially negative impact on cycling experiences. This article explores the impact of different incident types on people cycling both immediately and in the future. It analyses what near misses tell us about cyclists’ experience of problems related to road user behaviour and culture, and infrastructural conditions for cycling. The paper explores what cyclists experiencing near misses think might have prevented them. Based on this and on a comparison with common types of injury incidents, summary recommendations are made for policy and future research.     

An integrated risk assessment model: A case of sustainable freight transportation systems

The major challenge in the development of sustainable freight transportation systems (SFTSs) is due to the involvement of numerous dynamic uncertainties and intrinsic sustainability risks. Sustainability risks are potential threats that can have undesirable impacts on the sustainability of a system. The main objective of this study is to identify and evaluate the sustainability risks associated with freight transportation systems (FTSs). Accordingly, a risk analysis approach is developed by innovatively integrating the intuitionistic fuzzy set theory and D-number theory to quantitatively model the sustainability risks. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers can examine both the membership and non-membership degrees of an element while the D-number theory increases the objectivity of assessments by fusing multiple expert judgments. The proposed risk assessment model facilitates the managers in the development of SFTSs by ensuring visibility, predictability and measurability in freight operations. Unlike the conventional perception, the findings indicate that most of the high priority sustainability risks in FTSs are socially induced rather than financially driven and consciousness in people’s conduct is must to attain the positive results. The analysis alerts the freight managers toward the high priority sustainability risks and guides in pro-active strategy formulation and optimum allocation of mitigation resources to minimize disruptions in SFTSs.     

多向不规则波群的数值模拟

基于单向波群的数值模拟,引入方向分布函数,按给定的频谱、波群因子和方向分布参数,建立了多向波群的数值模拟方法,通过典型的算例表明方法的有效性,并对模拟结果进行了统计分析,研究了波浪群性与波浪统计特征之间的关系。     

公共项目决策的财务指标及风险修正研究

随着国民经济的发展，公共项目投资再采用传统财务指标进行决策，已不能满足公共项目投资的实际需求。为此，此文在阐述公共项目传统财务指标的基础上，针对传统财务决策指标存在的假设条件与实际情况不符、缺乏对项目变更权利的考虑、选取折现率忽略了项目的不确定性缺陷进行分析与研究，提出风险修正的财务决策指标，即风险大小的度量、对折现率的风险修正及风险修正的NPV计算。并通过实例验证采用风险修正的财务决策指标对公共项目投资进行决策更加有效。     

Application of Risk Index to Risk-Based Decision-Making in Vessel Traffic Service System

IntroductionDue to the development of large ships with lessmaneuverability, the increasing traffic volume, thetransportation of dangerous cargoes, and the potentialthreat of environmental pollution, marine traffic con-trol has been a valid measure and a practical solutionto reduce traffic risks in many ports and waterwaysaround the world. In particular, with the recentbooming sea-borne trade and reinforced awareness ofprotecting marine environment, implementation of anew vessel traffic service…     

LNG燃料技术在大型汽车运输船上的应用

基于LNG双燃料大型汽车运输船项目的开发介绍了以LNG作为船舶燃料的规范标准和风险评估流程,进一步从ME-GI双燃料主机、LNG燃料舱、燃料供给系统等方面阐述了LNG双燃料大型汽车运输船设计和建造的关键技术,为建造经济、环保、安全的LNG动力船提供了建设性思路。     

道路风险分析与评估管理系统研究初探

本研究的目的是初步探讨在我国建立道路风险评估的理论,使之体系化。在大量文献综述的基础上,总结归纳了道路风险的内容,并分析了道路风险具有的客观性、突发性、损害性、随机性和发展性。根据风险管理理论,构建了道路风险评估系统框架,包括道路风险识别系统、道路风险判断系统、道路风险分析系统和道路风险管理决策系统。运用全面、综合、体系化的道路风险评估系统来管理各个道路风险事件,可以减轻或者消除道路风险事件的影响。