基于风险管理门的高铁站场设计过程风险管理研究

高铁建设投资大、技术复杂、标准高,其站场设计过程一旦存在风险隐患将极大地影响整个高铁建设项目的进度和质量。但目前高铁站场设计过程的风险管理方法极其缺乏。对此,依托风险管理门理论,高铁站场设计过程被划分为预可行性研究、工程可行性研究、方案优化研究、初步设计、扩大初步设计、施工图设计等6道"风险管理门",再采用阈值检查判断每道风险管理门是否达到了控制标准,从而构建了高铁站场设计过程风险管理体系,并在安九高铁建设项目中安庆西站施工图设计阶段实践应用,验证其有效性和实用性。弥补了当前高铁站场设计过程风险管理研究十分缺乏的不足,为高铁站场设计过程风险管理提供新方法,有利于提高高铁站场设计质量,控制设计过程风险,并对推动高铁设计阶段风险管理研究的发展起到积极作用。     

西宁至成都铁路同仁至甘加越岭段工程地质问题及地质选线

为了科学地指导西宁至成都铁路同仁至甘加越岭段的地质选线工作,采用综合勘察方法,借鉴兰渝铁路的勘察及施工经验,并结合灰色关联法与变权理论,查明三叠系软岩大变形及上新近系砂岩水稳性为研究区的主要工程地质问题;根据岩性、岩体完整程度、层厚、强度应力比、地下水等因素,对三叠系软岩大变形进行风险分级;构建地质选线数学模型对多种线路方案进行定量评价,得出最优方案,为地质选线提供依据。     

近接房屋的隧道基坑失稳风险分析与管理

基于岩土力学与可靠度原理,在对类似工程地勘资料和监测数据统计分析的基础上,建立用于失稳风险失效概率分析的蒙特卡洛功能函数,推导出近接房屋的隧道基坑失稳风险计算模型.结合京石客运专线石家庄隧道工程,分析近接房屋的隧道基坑失稳风险,并提出风险控制措施.研究结果表明:近接距离小于4.4m时,风险可能发生;近接距离为4.4～9...     

基于围岩变形控制的海底隧道突水安全风险分析

以厦门海底隧道左线风化槽为例,研究海底隧道突水安全风险控制。选择与风化槽地质条件类似的五通端陆域段进行地层变形监测。监测结果表明:地层沉降具有明显的分层传递性和阶段性;当地表沉降30～40mm、拱顶沉降55～70mm时,地表开始出现裂缝。采用FLAC3D对海域风化槽段进行数值模拟。结果表明:海域风化槽地层变形规律与陆域段现场实测一致性良好;在帷幕注浆、超前支护等辅助工法发挥作用后,风化槽段拱顶沉降能够控制在70mm以内。结合监测结果和数值模拟结果制定的安全风险控制标准:在采用十字中隔壁工法(CRD工法)施工条件下,海域风化槽地表沉降控制标准及施工突水对应的拱顶极限沉降值分别为40和70mm;突水安全风险管理级别分为预警、报警及极限3个等级。应采取的技术控制措施包括:辅助工法的合理应用、地层变形的过程控制、信息的及时监测与反馈、施工质量控制及紧急预案制定。     

Private sector involvement in urban rail: Experience and lessons from South East Asia

Various models for competition and ownership of urban rail systems have been used in South East Asia cities since the early 1990s. The paper reviews and classifies the approaches used in Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Manila and Singapore. The planning, financing, procurement, implementation and operation of these systems, and the institutional context for them, are examined. All of the systems that have used private sector finance for the development of the initial systems have faced financial problems. Optimism bias in demand forecasts and unrealistic expectations for cost recovery of capital intensive systems have been contributing factors. Lessons to be learned include the importance of clear government leadership and sound institutional arrangements, and the need for improved understanding of the best manner in which the private sector can be used to achieve efficient and effective rail projects.     

城际铁路下穿南水北调干渠设计方案研究

城际铁路下穿南水北调中线干渠工程,国内尚属首例,干渠沉降变形控制要求严,工程实施难度及风险大。基于新郑机场至郑州南站城际铁路的工程背景,从对机场与航空港区规划及机场电磁环境影响等方面,比选确定城际铁路下穿干渠的交叉方案。考虑工法对地层的适应性、干渠结构变形、风险可控性、工程投资等因素,研究确定大直径盾构下穿干渠的施工工法。提出盾构以2D埋深下穿干渠的沉降变形控制标准,即渠道坡顶、坡脚最大变形差≤1 mm/m,渠道位移(+10～-5) mm、变形速率≤2 mm/d。采用有限元软件对盾构穿越干渠过程进行数值模拟,干渠沉降可控、不影响结构安全。对盾构下穿干渠风险进行系统分析,提出切实可行的工程对策措施,以降低或规避风险,确保隧道施工及干渠运行安全。     

Evaluating the risk of operational safety for dangerous goods in airfreights – A revised risk matrix based on fuzzy AHP

The purpose of this study is to assess the risk of operational safety for dangerous goods in airfreights. Based on the relevant literature, the risk factors (RFs) of operational safety were first investigated. A revised risk matrix based on fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) was then proposed to assess the risks of those RFs’ in operational safety. Finally, to validate the model, the airfreight operations of dangerous goods in Taiwan were empirically investigated. The results indicate the RFs with higher risk in shipper’s operations are inaccurate declaration, insufficient knowledge and insufficient packaging. For the results, theoretical and managerial implications are further discussed. The results can provide practical information for airfreight operators to improve the performance of safety management. Further, the revised risk matrix can provide methodological reference for risk assessment research.     

Suitability of Decision-Theoretic Models to Public Policy Issues Concerning the Provision of Shoreline Stabilization and Hazard Management

This article examines the suitability and potential advances of decision-theoretic models from finance regarding investment decisions in shoreline stabilization projects. A set of scenarios represents the dynamics of the decision-state facing the planner and identifies factors that should be incorporated into the decision-making process. It is shown that decision models from finance can account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in shoreline stabilization projects, potentially suggest improvements and refinements to presently used cost-benefit analysis procedures, and offer new tools that can aid in decisions concerning provision of shoreline stabilization. The outcomes of these scenarios justify better planning and control of existing and future building, and that of poststorm policies. Lastly, these models allow us to explore the range of our understanding of coastal processes and interactions with shoreline stabilization projects and can identify new and useful data needed in coastal management and hazard management decisions.     

关注铁路产品过程能力风险 提高质量管理体系有效性和效率

论述了关注铁路产品过程能力风险的必要性,主张在过程能力管理中积极应用过程能力指数方法,准确理解确认过程中为过程的评审和批准所规定的准则,扩展确认过程的范围,通过强化过程能力管理,提高质量管理体系的有效性和效率。     

模糊集的Sup性质

研究了Fuzzy集的Sup性质，给出了Fuzzy集具有Sup性质的充分必要条件，最后讨论了具有 Sup性质的Fuzzy群及Fuzzy环的一些性质。