Short-term statistics of ice loads on ship bow frames in floe ice fields: Full-scale measurements in the Antarctic ocean

Ship operation and ice loading in floe ice fields have received considerable interest during recent years. There have been several numerical simulators developed by different institutes which can simulate ship navigation through floe ice fields and estimate ship performance and local ice loads. However, public data obtained from full-scale measurement covering comprehensively ship performance and ice loads under various ice thicknesses, concentrations and floe sizes are rare. The 2018/19 Antarctic voyage of the Polar Supply and Research Vessel (PSRV) S.A. Agulhas II gathered considerable data of the ship in floe ice fields under various thicknesses, concentrations, and floe sizes. The aim of this paper is to carry out statistical analysis to seek suitable probability distributions which adequately fit the measured ice load and therefore suitable to be used as parent distributions for long-term estimation. For this aim, three categories of probability distributions, namely standard distributions, truncated distributions and mixture distributions are tested. It is found that truncated distributions can fit the load data better than standard distributions bounded at the threshold. In addition, mixture distributions are shown to have promising features, which fit the data well and are able to separate distribution components. Subsequentially, the well-performed distributions are used as parent distributions to make long-term load estimations. The estimation results demonstrate that long-term estimations are sensitive to the selection of parent distribution, which addresses the importance of finding correct distribution to model short-term ice loads. The data of ten selected cases will be published for the use of other researchers.     

格值命题逻辑系统Lvpl中的推理规则

为描述取小、多重推理、多维推理等实际推理方法，在格值命题逻辑系统Lvpl中，引入了几类相应的推理规则．这些推理规则由语法和语义两部分组成，且在两部分之间存在一定的协调水平．证明了对于适当的语法语义协调水平，当Lvpl的公式集的L型模糊集为同态映射时，它们关于这几类推理规则都在一定程度上封闭.     

Additive—Multiplicative Fuzzy Neural Network and Its Performance

Introduction　　Kosko[1] hasprovedthatanadditivefuzzysystemcanapproximateanycontinuousfunctiononacompactdomaintoarbitraryaccuracy .AspointedbyWang[2 ] ,amultiplicativefuzzysystem ,whichisconstructedbyusingGaussianmembershipfunctionandcentroiddefuzzificati…     

事故树的模糊分析方法研究

以事故树作为系统模型，根据模糊集理论，将安全评价的评价等级进行了模糊量化描述，通过对基本事件进行模糊测定所获得的数据，建立了对运行系统进行动态安全评价的数学模型。     

Severity of pedestrian injuries due to traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong: a Bayesian spatial logit model

The present study intended to (1) investigate the injury risk of pedestrian casualties involved in traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong; (2) determine the effect of pedestrian volumes on the severity levels of pedestrian injuries; and (3) explore the role of spatial correlation in econometric crash‐severity models. The data from 1889 pedestrian‐related crashes at 318 signalized intersections between 2008 and 2012 were elaborately collected from the Traffic Accident Database System maintained by the Hong Kong Transport Department. To account for the cross‐intersection heterogeneity, a Bayesian hierarchical logit model with uncorrelated and spatially correlated random effects was developed. An intrinsic conditional autoregressive prior was specified for the spatial correlation term. Results revealed that (1) signalized intersections with greater pedestrian volumes generally exhibited a lower injury risk; (2) ignoring the spatial correlation potentially results in reduced model goodness‐of‐fit, an underestimation of variability and standard error of parameter estimates, as well as inconsistent, biased, and erroneous inference; (3) special attention should be paid to the following factors, which led to a significantly higher probability of pedestrians being killed or sustaining severe injury: pedestrian age greater than 65 years, casualties with head injuries, crashes that occurred on footpaths that were not obstructed/overcrowded, heedless or inattentive crossing, crashes on the two‐way carriageway, and those that occurred near tram or light‐rail transit stops. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于改进Petri网的船舶电力系统故障诊断

将Petri网理论用于船舶电力系统故障诊断中,提出了一种改进的Petri网故障诊断模型。在基本Petri网诊断模型的基础上引入模糊推理规则形成模糊Petri网,说明了该方法的模型构建、推理过程及解析方法的表示。利用该方法对船舶电力系统进行故障诊断使推理过程简洁、诊断快速、诊断结果也更科学有效。     

基于模糊推理的换车道模型

微观交通仿真在交通系统分析和管理方面是1种安全、有效的工具。在交通微观仿真中,用变换车道表现驾驶员行为是1个非常重要的方面;然而,以往的许多换车道模型并没有考虑驾驶员行为的不确定性和认知性。文中利用模糊推理来表现这种不确定性和认知性,从而使换车道行为更加符合现实。通过实际观察数据与模糊推理的微观仿真模拟的结果比较,表明该模型是可行的,有效的。     

Technical,allocative and cost efficiencies of Chinese ports

This paper reports on empirical studies of the technical, allocative, and cost efficiencies (CEs) of Chinese ports based on the panel data of 16 listed port corporations from 1998 to 2011 by means of Bayesian Inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. An error terms approach is used to resolve the Greene Problem in the estimation of allocative efficiency. The results show that the technical efficiencies have tended to decline in most ports. Inputs to R&D and improving management level are insufficient to offset this decline. Seaports have higher CEs than river ports. Ports with higher container cargo proportion have higher CEs. Ports with more than 50% of shares owned by the State have higher CEs.     

基于统计推断的电子设备突发故障预测方法研究

针对电子设备突发故障预测问题,在一定置信度的前提下,基于样本的故障数据对总体的分布进行极大似然估计和分布拟合检验,确定其分布规律,进而基于故障数据分布函数建立电子设备突发故障预测模型,对电子设备未来一段时间内的突发故障概率进行预测,并进行实例分析,验证了预测模型的合理性.     

基于模糊逻辑推理的燃料电池客车再生制动控制策略

以燃料电池客车为研究对象,在分析城市公交客车制动特点的基础上,进行了制动能量回收的分析计算,提出了一种简单实用的再生制动控制策略的模糊化设计方法。道路试验表明,该设计具有明显的节能效果。