基于公交IC 卡数据的上车站点推算研究

为了分析城市公交乘客的出行特征,本文利用公交IC 卡及GPS数据对公交IC 卡乘客上车站点推算进行研究.针对安装车载GPS设备的车辆,运用GPS数据与IC 卡数据融合算法进行推算;对于无车载GPS设备的情况,为适应一票制IC 卡数据挖掘,对贝叶斯决策树算法进行改进,允许节点跳跃,推算上车站点,并且利用Markov 链特性降低算法的运算复杂度.同时,本文以北京公交数据为例,对提出的两种方法进行验证.结果表明,利用本文提出的方法推算上车站点,3 站之内误差的准确率达到90%以上,算法在兼顾算法精度的同时合理地控制了运算复杂度,可以实际运用于城市公交系统.     

UNCERTAIN KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT IN EXPERT SYSTEMS USING FUZZY METAGRAPHS

IntroductionThe fuzzy graph- theoretic constructs are widelyapplied in modeling and analyzing fuzzy sys-tems[1] .Whereas,existing fuzzy constructs arenot suitable for the analysis of the directed rela-tionships between sets of elements.In addition,such relationships widely exist in fuzzy systems,for example,knowledge base in fuzzy expertsystem. So,based on the metagraph proposedby A.Basu and R.W.Blanning[2 ,3] ,this paperpresents a new graph- theoretic construct,afuzzy metagraph and applies …     

微机模糊控制 3：第三讲模糊语言及其应用

模糊语言是模糊控制的理论基础。自然语言中某些单词，词组等通过模糊集合的描述和模糊揄转换成计算可以接受的数学模型，就可以实现计算机控制。     

基于自适应神经网络模糊推理系统的交叉口交通冲突数预测

自适应神经网络模糊系统在建立对象输入和输出关系时,与传统的数学方法不同,它是基于数据的建模。本文利用这一系统特性,建立平面交叉口交通冲突数与进入交叉口内的左转交通量、右转交通量、直行交通量和行人过街交通量之间模型,提出自适应神经网络模糊系统预测交叉口冲突数的方法,建立一种快速获取交通冲突数的预测方法,为交通冲突数的调查开辟了新的途径。     

基于自适应模糊神经网络的交通流状态预测

研究交通流状态的分类、识别与预测,建立了基于模糊聚类及模式识别的交通流状态自适应模糊神经推理系统.对大量交通流历史特征数据采用模糊聚类法进行状态分类并进行模式识别,得到系统的原始输入输出数据集.建立交通流状态预测的自适应模糊神经系统,以交通流特征数据及其识别结果作为训练数据集进行系统参数及模糊规则的训练与确定,直到误差在控制范围内,并进行系统检测和复核.仿真及其检测和复核结果表明系统预测的准确率在 95%以上.     

一种新的区间值模糊集推理方法

在两向量相似度的基础上,定义了两个区间值模糊集在一点处相似度,然后在此基础上提出了一种新的模糊推理方法——区间值模糊集相似度推理方法.并且对该种方法的还原性进行了讨论,给出了满足还原算法的条件.     

基于不确定性推理的大跨度斜拉桥综合评估研究

随着国内桥梁建造水平的飞速评估提升，大跨度桥梁技术状态评估越来越受到重视的同时，仍存在较多问题和不足。以某斜拉桥为研究背景，采用不确定推理中的多级模糊综合方法和D-S证据理论，对钢箱梁斜拉桥开展状态评估，并与直接加权平均方法的结果进行比较。研究表明：不确定性推理方法可以较好地应用于大跨度斜拉桥的技术状态评估；D-S证据理论方法能体现子指标之间的差异性，有利于做出更加合理的养护决策。     

Fatigue assessment of ship structures based on equivalent wave probability (EWP) concept (1st report): Proposal of EWP concept and its verification by 8600TEU container ship's onboard hull monitoring

A long-term fatigue assessment method based on EWP concept is proposed. ‘Equivalent wave probability (EWP)’ is the fictitious (H_S, T_m)'s joint probability distribution function (JPDF), for which the frequency distribution of the stress variance R², f(R²), calculated by spectral fatigue assessment agrees with the observed one. By choosing probability function p(R²) to fit f(R²), the R²'s statistical model (R2SM) which represents the relation between the EWP parameters and R²'s population parameters is developed, and the Bayesian inference, which can estimate the EWP parameters from the measured R² data is developed. The EWP at the reference position (RP) can be determined by Bayesian inference from the measured R² through the R2SM at RP. To accurately estimate the measured f(R²) at the target position (TP) from the EWP at RP, an R2SM correction factor at TP, denoted by α_TP, is introduced in the process of assimilating R2SM. The resulting R2SM, which has been assimilated by Bayesian inference using measured data, is referred to as data-assimilated R2SM (DAR2SM). The fatigue assessment using EWP at RP as the input of DAR2SM at TP is called Bayes-EWP-DAR2SM analysis. The validity of Bayes-EWP-DAR2SM analysis is verified by using the long-term (about four years) multi(12)-position hull monitoring (HM) data of an 8,600TEU container ship. The fatigue damages estimated by Bayes-EWP-DAR2SM based solely on the stress history of a single sensor are in agreement with measurements with sufficient accuracy, independent of the chosen data assimilation period. This demonstrates that the multi-position fatigue assessment solely through HM at one RP based on EWP concept is realized.     

考虑电堆寿命的氢燃料电池汽车能量管理策略研究

提出了一种在满足动力性需求并且以氢燃料电池堆作为主要能源的前提下，能有效延长电堆使用寿命的能量管理策略。提出将需求功率 SG滤波后再进行规则控制的能量管理策略，将多种循环工况的结果进行手动优化后作为训练数据集，设计三输入一输出的自适应神经模糊推理系统控制器，根据其输出结果再进行一次滤波最终形成基于自适应神经模糊推理系统优化的能量管理策略。使用CLTC-P循环工况对能量管理策略进行仿真验证，结果表明，基于自适应神经模糊推理系统优化的能量管理策略能有效延长氢燃料电池剩余使用寿命，相比滤波加规则策略剩余使用寿命增加了33%，并能保持动力电池SOC处于适宜水平。