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761.
由于地质条件的复杂性,影响边坡稳定性因素存在着不同程度上的不确定性.因此,在边坡稳定性分析中,应考虑这些因素的不确定,对边坡进行可靠度分析.文中将有限元强度折减法和点估计法结合进行边坡的可靠度分析.对有限元强度折减法和点估计法的基本原理进行了简单介绍,将二者相结合进行一黄土边坡的可靠度分析.计算结果表明,该边坡整体上较稳定,但可能发生黄土层的浅层滑动,边坡的平均安全系数为1.10,处于基本稳定状态.边坡的破坏概率为26.5％,属于低危险等级,需对该边坡进行进一步的观测.有限元强度折减法和点估计法相结合,可方便、简捷地对边坡可靠性进行评价. 相似文献
762.
Javad Marzbanrad Iman Tahbaz-zadeh Moghaddam 《Vehicle System Dynamics: International Journal of Vehicle Mechanics and Mobility》2016,54(9):1291-1316
The main purpose of this paper is to design a self-tuning control algorithm for an adaptive cruise control (ACC) system that can adapt its behaviour to variations of vehicle dynamics and uncertain road grade. To this aim, short-time linear quadratic form (STLQF) estimation technique is developed so as to track simultaneously the trend of the time-varying parameters of vehicle longitudinal dynamics with a small delay. These parameters are vehicle mass, road grade and aerodynamic drag-area coefficient. Next, the values of estimated parameters are used to tune the throttle and brake control inputs and to regulate the throttle/brake switching logic that governs the throttle and brake switching. The performance of the designed STLQF-based self-tuning control (STLQF-STC) algorithm for ACC system is compared with the conventional method based on fixed control structure regarding the speed/distance tracking control modes. Simulation results show that the proposed control algorithm improves the performance of throttle and brake controllers, providing more comfort while travelling, enhancing driving safety and giving a satisfactory performance in the presence of different payloads and road grade variations. 相似文献
763.
The problem of validating the Modéle d’Écoulement de Trafic sur Autoroute NETworks (METANET) model of a motorway section is considered. Model calibration is formulated as a least squares error minimisation problem with explicit penalisation of fundamental diagram parameter variation. The Automatic Differentiation by Overloading in C++ (ADOL-C) library is incorporated into the METANET source code and is coupled with the Resilient Back Propagation (RPROP) heuristic for solving the minimisation problem. The result is a very efficient system which is able to be calibrate METANET by determining the density and speed equation parameters as well as the fundamental diagrams used. Information obtained from the system’s Jacobian provides extra insight into the dynamics showing how sensitivities propagate into the network. A 22 km site near Sheffield, UK, using data from three different days is considered. In addition to the ADOL-C/RPROP system, three particle swarm optimisation algorithms are used for solving the calibration problem. In all cases, the optimal parameter sets found are verified on data not used during calibration. Although, all three sets of data display a similar congestion pattern, the verification process showed that only one of them is capable of leading to parameter sets that capture the underlying dynamics of the traffic flow process. 相似文献
764.
This paper presents a real-time traffic network state estimation and prediction system with built-in decision support capabilities for traffic network management. The system provides traffic network managers with the capabilities to estimate the current network conditions, predict congestion dynamics, and generate efficient traffic management schemes for recurrent and non-recurrent congestion situations. The system adopts a closed-loop rolling horizon framework in which network state estimation and prediction modules are integrated with a traffic network manager module to generate efficient proactive traffic management schemes. The traffic network manger adopts a meta-heuristic search mechanism to construct the schemes by integrating a wide variety of control strategies. The system is applied in the context of Integrated Corridor Management (ICM), which is envisioned to provide a system approach for managing congested urban corridors. A simulation-based case study is presented for the US-75 corridor in Dallas, Texas. The results show the ability of the system to improve the overall network performance during hypothetical incident scenarios. 相似文献
765.
This paper presents an integrated framework for effective coupling of a signal timing estimation model and dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) in feedback loops. There are many challenges in effectively integrating signal timing tools with DTA software systems, such as data availability, exchange format, and system coupling. In this research, a tight coupling between a DTA model with various queue‐based simulation models and a quick estimation method Excel‐based signal control tool is achieved and tested. The presented framework design offers an automated solution for providing realistic signal timing parameters and intersection movement capacity allocation, especially for future year scenarios. The framework was used to design an open‐source data hub for multi‐resolution modeling in analysis, modeling and simulation applications, in which a typical regional planning model can be quickly converted to microscopic traffic simulation and signal optimization models. The coupling design and feedback loops are first demonstrated on a simple network, and we examine the theoretically important questions on the number of iterations required for reaching stable solutions in feedback loops. As shown in our experiment, the current coupled application becomes stable after about 30 iterations, when the capacity and signal timing parameters can quickly converge, while DTA's route switching model predominately determines and typically requires more iterations to reach a stable condition. A real‐world work zone case study illustrates how this application can be used to assess impacts of road construction or traffic incident events that disrupt normal traffic operations and cause route switching on multiple analysis levels. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
766.
Ahmadreza Talebian 《运输规划与技术》2015,38(7):795-815
Regardless of existing types of transportation and traffic model and their applications, the essential input to these models is travel demand, which is usually described using origin–destination (OD) matrices. Due to the high cost and time required for the direct development of such matrices, they are sometimes estimated indirectly from traffic measurements recorded from the transportation network. Based on an assumed demand profile, OD estimation problems can be categorized into static or dynamic groups. Dynamic OD demand provides valuable information on the within-day fluctuation of traffic, which can be employed to analyse congestion dissipation. In addition, OD estimates are essential inputs to dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models. This study presents a fuzzy approach to dynamic OD estimation problems. The problems are approached using a two-level model in which demand is estimated in the upper level and the lower level performs DTA via traffic simulation. Using fuzzy rules and the fuzzy C-Mean clustering approach, the proposed method treats uncertainty in historical OD demand and observed link counts. The approach employs expert knowledge to model fitted link counts and to set boundaries for the optimization problem by defining functions in the fuzzification process. The same operation is performed on the simulation outputs, and the entire process enables different types of optimization algorithm to be employed. The Box-complex method is utilized as an optimization algorithm in the implementation of the approach. Empirical case studies are performed on two networks to evaluate the validity and accuracy of the approach. The study results for a synthetic network and a real network demonstrate the robust performance of the proposed method even when using low-quality historical demand data. 相似文献
767.
In the stated choice literature, increasing attention has been paid to methods that seek to close the gap between the choices from these experiments and the choices experienced in the real world. Attempts to produce model estimates that are truer to real market behaviours are especially important for transportation, where many important policy decisions rely on such experiments. A recent approach that has emerged makes use of a certainty index whereby respondents report how certain they are about each choice they make. Additional literature also posits that when making decisions, people first identify an acceptable set of alternatives (alternative acceptability) such that a consideration set if formed and it is from this reduced set that the ultimate choice is made. This paper presents two models that jointly estimates choice and choice certainty and choice and alternative acceptability. This joint estimation allows the modeller to overcome potential endogeneity that may exist between these responses. In comparing choices of differing certainty, surprisingly little difference in marginal sensitivities are found. This is not the case in the alternative acceptability models however. An important finding of this research is that what could be interpreted as preference heterogeneity may in fact be more closely linked to scale. The ramifications of these results on future research are discussed. 相似文献
768.
Probe vehicles provide some of the most useful data for road traffic monitoring because they can acquire wide-ranging and spatiotemporally detailed information at a relatively low cost compared with traditional fixed-point observation. However, current GPS-equipped probe vehicles cannot directly provide us volume-related variables such as flow and density. In this paper, we propose a new probe vehicle-based estimation method for obtaining volume-related variables by assuming that a probe vehicle can measure the spacing to its leading one. This assumption can be realized by utilizing key technologies in advanced driver assistance systems that are expected to spread in the near future. We developed a method of estimating the flow, density, and speed from the probe vehicle data without exogenous assumptions on traffic flow characteristics, such as a fundamental diagram. In order to quantify the characteristics of the method, we performed a field experiment at a real-world urban expressway by employing prototypes of the probe vehicles with spacing measurement equipment. The result showed that the proposed method could accurately estimate the 5 min and hourly traffic volumes with probe vehicle penetration rate of 3.5% and 0.2%, respectively. 相似文献
769.
In this study, we develop a real-time estimation approach for lane-based queue lengths. Our aim is to determine the numbers of queued vehicles in each lane, based on detector information at isolated signalized junctions. The challenges involved in this task are to identify whether there is a residual queue at the start time of each cycle and to determine the proportions of lane-to-lane traffic volumes in each lane. Discriminant models are developed based on time occupancy rates and impulse memories, as calculated by the detector and signal information from a set of upstream and downstream detectors. To determine the proportions of total traffic volume in each lane, the downstream arrivals for each cycle are estimated by using the Kalman filter, which is based on upstream arrivals and downstream discharges collected during the previous cycle. Both the computer simulations and the case study of real-world traffic show that the proposed method is robust and accurate for the estimation of lane-based queue lengths in real time under a wide range of traffic conditions. Calibrated discriminant models play a significant role in determining whether there are residual queued vehicles in each lane at the start time of each cycle. In addition, downstream arrivals estimated by the Kalman filter enhance the accuracy of the estimates by minimizing any error terms caused by lane-changing behavior. 相似文献
770.
This paper proposes a new model to estimate the mean and covariance of stochastic multi-class (multiple vehicle classes) origin–destination (OD) demands from hourly classified traffic counts throughout the whole year. It is usually assumed in the conventional OD demand estimation models that the OD demand by vehicle class is deterministic. Little attention is given on the estimation of the statistical properties of stochastic OD demands as well as their covariance between different vehicle classes. Also, the interactions between different vehicle classes in OD demand are ignored such as the change of modes between private car and taxi during a particular hourly period over the year. To fill these two gaps, the mean and covariance matrix of stochastic multi-class OD demands for the same hourly period over the year are simultaneously estimated by a modified lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) method. The estimated covariance matrix of stochastic multi-class OD demands can be used to capture the statistical dependency of traffic demands between different vehicle classes. In this paper, the proposed model is formulated as a non-linear constrained optimization problem. An exterior penalty algorithm is adapted to solve the proposed model. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the applications of the proposed model together with some insightful findings on the importance of covariance of OD demand between difference vehicle classes. 相似文献