Travel demand estimation risk for high‐speed railway transport considering travel price competition

The Hokkaido Shinkansen (HS) bullet train line is under consideration to open in 2020. In this study, travel demand is estimated for the HS. Because some explanatory variables that are used for such estimation can have estimation errors, travel demand estimation risk is also calculated. In addition, because the HS can compete with airlines for modal share, the impacts of travel price competition (TPC) on the travel demand and the demand estimation risk are also estimated. In this study, the travel demand estimation risk is measured as the variance or the SD of the stochastic travel demand. The analysis reveals the following: the modal share of HS is 16% less when TPC is considered than when it is not considered; TPC causes the travel demand estimation risk to decrease; the probabilities of the HS operating at a deficit with and without consideration of TPC are calculated as 31.2% and 1.25%, respectively, and the increase in the mean consumer surplus accruing from the HS is calculated as JPY 47bn/year ($US588m/year) without TPC and as JPY 66bn/year ($US825m/year) with TPC. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new fuzzy approach to estimate the O–D matrix from link volumes

Abstract

Estimation of the origin–destination (O–D) trip demand matrix plays a key role in travel analysis and transportation planning and operations. Many researchers have developed different O–D matrix estimation methods using traffic counts, which allow simple data collection as opposed to the costly traditional direct estimation methods based on home and roadside interviews.

In this paper, we present a new fuzzy model to estimate the O–D matrix from traffic counts. Since link data only represent a snapshot situation, resulting in inconsistency of data and poor quality of the estimated O–Ds, the proposed method considers the link data as a fuzzy number that varies within a certain bandwidth. Shafahi and Ramezani's fuzzy assignment method is improved upon and used to assign the estimated O–D matrix, which causes the assigned volumes to be fuzzy numbers similar to what is proposed for observed link counts. The shortest path algorithm of the proposed method is similar to the Floyd–Warshall algorithm, and we call it the Fuzzy Floyd–Warshall Algorithm. A new fuzzy comparing index is proposed by improving the fuzzy comparison method developed by Dubois and Prade to estimate and compare the distance between the assigned and observed link volumes. The O–D estimation model is formulated as a convex minimization problem based on the proposed fuzzy index to minimize the fuzzy distance between the observed and assigned link volumes. A gradient-based method is used to solve the problem. To ensure the original O–D matrix does not change more than necessary during the iterations, a fuzzy rule-based approach is proposed to control the matrix changes.     

Transport Demand Management in Turkey: A Genetic Algorithm Approach

Abstract

This article proposes new models for estimating transport demand using a genetic algorithm (GA) approach. Based on population, gross national product and number of vehicles, four forms of the genetic algorithm transport planning (GATP) model are developed – one exponential and the others taking quadratic forms – and applied to Turkey. The best fit models in terms of minimum total average relative errors in the test period are selected for future estimation. Demand management strategies are proposed based on three scenarios: restricting private car use, restricting truck use and the simultaneous management of private car use and goods movement. Results show that the GATP model may be used to estimate transport demand in terms of passenger-kilometers traveled (pass-km), vehicle-kilometers traveled (veh-km) and ton-kilometers completed (ton-km). Results also show that the third scenario – simultaneous restrictions on private car use and goods movement – could reduce total veh-km by about 35% by 2025 in this study of Turkish rural roads.     

A framework for neighbour links travel time estimation in an urban network

This paper proposes a solution to the problem of limited network sensor coverage caused by insufficient sample size of probe vehicles or inadequate numbers of fixed sensors. A framework is proposed to estimate link travel times using available data from neighbouring links. Two clues are used for real-time travel time estimation: link historical travel time data and online travel time data from neighbour links. In the absence of online travel time data from neighbour links, historical records only have to be relied upon. However, where the two types of data are available, a data fusion scheme can be applied to make use of the two clues. The proposed framework is validated using real-life data from the City of Vancouver, British Columbia. The estimation accuracy is found to be comparable to the existing literature. Overall, the results demonstrate the feasibility of using neighbour links data as an additional source of information that might not have been extensively explored before.     

基于WVD-MUISC算法的单矢量水听器DOA估计

针对MUSIC算法在非平稳噪声背景下DOA估计性能下降和信源个数受限的问题,利用空间时频分布（spatial time-frequency distribution ,STFD）,选择时频点构造时频相关矩阵,替代MU-SIC算法中的相关矩阵,设计了单矢量水听器DOA估计的WVD-MUSIC算法,通过仿真验证了新方法在噪声抑制能力、空间分辨能力和多目标分辨能力优于原方法。     

基于EKF的自动泊车系统位姿估计算法设计

利用车辆2个后轮轮速信号和方向盘转角信号,基于扩展卡尔曼滤波技术设计一种车辆位姿估计算法,并在veDYNA中仿真试验。仿真结果表明,算法的估计精度比较理想,可满足泊车系统对自身车辆定位的需求。以定位精度2 cm（1σ）的GPS信号为参考,实车试验结果表明,位置估计误差控制在3%以内,此精度的估计结果可以为泊车系统提供车辆定位信息,为增强泊车安全性奠定基础。     

Ten years after bus deregulation in Japan: An analysis of institutional changes and cost efficiency

The local bus market in Japan was deregulated in 2002. This study examines the impact of this deregulation on the market structure and the operators' cost efficiency over the last ten years. First, we perform a qualitative before-and-after-deregulation analysis of Japan's bus market, finding that there has been little change in the structure of the Japanese bus market so far. Second, we investigate the effectiveness of the deregulation and internal organisational factors by using a dataset of publicly owned (municipal) bus companies. We estimate the total cost frontier functions in order to examine their effects, showing that it is the internal organisational factors (i.e. governance structure) that affect the operator's efficiency, not deregulation. In fact, the coefficient of subsidies to companies is positive, with statistical significance, thereby suggesting that cost efficiency decreases as the subsidy ratio increases. The coefficient of the contracting-out (MCGL) dummy also obtains statistically significant results; thus, we provide an account of how contracting out clearly improves operators' cost efficiency. The deregulation variable did not show significant results.     

基于建成环境和低频浮动车数据的路段行程时间估计

将城市道路周边建成环境的相关属性作为路段行程时间的解释变量,结合城市低频浮动 车数据,在不需要速度等GPS信息的条件下研究建成环境属性因素对路段行程时间的影响。同 时,给出一种新的路段行程时间分布估计方法,即利用路段车辆数的分布代替路段长度作为路段 行程时间的分配比例系数,得到路段行程时间的分布情况。为验证所提方法的正确性,以辽宁省 丹东市振兴区锦山大街为例进行分析,用极大似然估计法得到各类建成环境对行程时间的影响 参数值,并对比研究路段在有、无建成环境影响下的行程时间。结果表明：道路周边的建成环境 会在不同时段导致路段行程时间显著增加,学校的影响时间段主要在6:00-7:20,医院、诊所集中 在7:00-8:00,交叉口造成的行程时间增量在研究范围内整体较为平均。通过似然比检验,验证了 将建成环境变量作为路段行程时间影响因素的可靠性。     

Developing travel time estimation methods using sparse GPS data

Existing methods of estimating travel time from GPS data are not able to simultaneously take account of the issues related to uncertainties associated with GPS and spatial road network data. Moreover, they typically depend upon high-frequency data sources from specialist data providers, which can be expensive and are not always readily available. The study reported here therefore sought to better estimate travel time using “readily available” vehicle trajectory data from moving sensors such as buses, taxis, and logistical vehicles equipped with GPS in “near” real time. To do this, accurate locations of vehicles on a link were first map-matched to reduce the positioning errors associated with GPS and digital road maps. Two mathematical methods were then developed to estimate link travel times from map-matched GPS fixes, vehicle speeds, and network connectivity information with a special focus on sampling frequencies, vehicle penetration rates, and time window lengths. Global positioning system (GPS) data from Interstate I-880 (California) for a total of 73 vehicles over 6 h were obtained from the University of California Berkeley's Mobile Century Project, and these were used to evaluate several travel time estimation methods, the results of which were then validated against reference travel time data collected from high resolution video cameras. The results indicate that vehicle penetration rates, data sampling frequencies, vehicle coverage on the links, and time window lengths all influence the accuracy of link travel time estimation. The performance was found to be best in the 5-min time window length and for a GPS sampling frequency of 60 s.     

Sideslip estimation for articulated heavy vehicles at the limits of adhesion*

Various active safety systems proposed for articulated heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) require an accurate estimate of vehicle sideslip angle. However in contrast to passenger cars, there has been minimal published research on sideslip estimation for articulated HGVs. State-of-the-art observers, which rely on linear vehicle models, perform poorly when manoeuvring near the limits of tyre adhesion. This paper investigates three nonlinear Kalman filters (KFs) for estimating the tractor sideslip angle of a tractor–semitrailer. These are compared to the current state-of-the-art, through computer simulations and vehicle test data. An unscented KF using a 5 degrees-of-freedom single-track vehicle model with linear adaptive tyres is found to substantially outperform the state-of-the-art linear KF across a range of test manoeuvres on different surfaces, both at constant speed and during emergency braking. Robustness of the observer to parameter uncertainty is also demonstrated.