江苏省交通事故时间分布分析

根据江苏省有关交通事故数据,利用统计方法对交通事故发生的时间特征进行分析。通过分析交通事故年时间分布规律的波峰曲线,得出江苏省交通事故发生数量开始振荡变化,逐年上升的势头有望于近期遏制。通过分析交通事故、月、周、小时时间分布曲线,得出交通事故高峰小时出现在交通量高峰小时之后的9~12h、14~16h,两者不重合。死亡高峰时段(危险时段)多发生在18~21h的3h内。研究结论对不同时间内如何采取不同的安全对策来降低江苏省交通事故具有指导作用。     

基于Prover的联锁软件形式化验证过程研究

计算机联锁系统是铁路信号控制系统的核心设备,是有着苛刻安全要求的复杂控制系统。本文采用Prover形式化开发工具对联锁软件安全需求进行形式化验证。通过模型检验的形式化验证方法,遍历系统输入变量的所有状态空间.验证联锁特定应用满足系统安全需求,确保系统的安全性得以正确实现。在保证系统安全性的基础上,以全状态空间查找反例的检验方法进一步提升产品的质量。     

论孔子人才观的历史定位与普适价值

孔子的人才观虽然产生于春秋时期动荡的社会背景下,却揭示了人才的最本质内涵———＂仁、智、勇＂。三者作为人才内涵的核心三要素,形成一个内在的三角稳定结构,它能够持久地推动包括成才在内的人的生命境界的发展,因而具有超越时代和社会阶层的普适价值。     

Estimating traffic volumes for signalized intersections using connected vehicle data

Recently connected vehicle (CV) technology has received significant attention thanks to active pilot deployments supported by the US Department of Transportation (USDOT). At signalized intersections, CVs may serve as mobile sensors, providing opportunities of reducing dependencies on conventional vehicle detectors for signal operation. However, most of the existing studies mainly focus on scenarios that penetration rates of CVs reach certain level, e.g., 25%, which may not be feasible in the near future. How to utilize data from a small number of CVs to improve traffic signal operation remains an open question. In this work, we develop an approach to estimate traffic volume, a key input to many signal optimization algorithms, using GPS trajectory data from CV or navigation devices under low market penetration rates. To estimate traffic volumes, we model vehicle arrivals at signalized intersections as a time-dependent Poisson process, which can account for signal coordination. The estimation problem is formulated as a maximum likelihood problem given multiple observed trajectories from CVs approaching to the intersection. An expectation maximization (EM) procedure is derived to solve the estimation problem. Two case studies were conducted to validate our estimation algorithm. One uses the CV data from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment (SPMD) project, in which around 2800 CVs were deployed in the City of Ann Arbor, MI. The other uses vehicle trajectory data from users of a commercial navigation service in China. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the estimation is found to be 9–12%, based on benchmark data manually collected and data from loop detectors. Considering the existing scale of CV deployments, the proposed approach could be of significant help to traffic management agencies for evaluating and operating traffic signals, paving the way of using CVs for detector-free signal operation in the future.     

变邻域搜索求解公共交通乘务调度问题

公共交通乘务调度问题是一个将车辆工作切分为一组合法班次的过程,它是NP难问题,许多求解方法的效率都与班次评价密不可分,本文通过裁剪TOPSIS方法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)设计了TOPSIS班次评价方法.此外,通过裁剪变邻域搜索算法使之适合求解乘务调度问题,提出了基于变邻域搜索的乘务调度方法(Crew Scheduling Approach Based on Variable Neighbourhood Search,VNS),其中,并入了TOPSIS班次评价方法在调度过程中进行班次评价,设计了两种带概率的复合邻域结构以增加搜索的多样性,帮助跳出局部最优,在VNS中利用模拟退火算法进行局部搜索.利用中国公共交通中的11组实例进行了测试,测试结果表明,VNS优于两种新近提出的乘务调度方法,且其结果关于班次数接近于下界.     

Theory of safety surrogates using vehicle trajectories in macroscopic and microscopic settings: Application to dynamic message signs controlled traffic at work zones

This paper presents a new mathematical framework for obtaining quantitative safety measure using macroscopic as well as microscopic traffic data. The safety surrogate obtained from the macroscopic data is in terms of analysis performed on vehicle trajectories obtained from the macroscopic data. This method of obtaining safety measure can be used for many different types of applications. The safety surrogate for the traffic dynamics are developed in terms of a new concept of Negative Speed Differentials (NSD) that involve a convolution of vehicle speed function obtained from vehicle trajectories and then performing the integration of the square of the output for its negative values. The framework is applicable to microscopic traffic dynamics as well where we can use car following models for microscopic dynamics or the LWR model for macroscopic dynamics. This paper then presents the use of this new safety surrogate on the development of a feedback control law for controlling traffic in work zones using Dynamic Message Signs. A hybrid dynamics model is used to represent the switching dynamics due to changing DMS messages. A feedback control design for choosing those messages is presented as well as a simple simulation example to show its application.     

绿色公路技术LCA评价体系及效益分析

针对各类绿色公路技术难以横向比较的问题,文章从技术可行性、经济效益、节能减排效益等方面,提出建立绿色公路技术LCA评价体系,并以G312苏州西段工程为例进行综合效益分析,其综合效益最为显著,具备规模化、资源化、投资适宜的绿色公路技术;技术瓶颈问题的突破和创新,是推进绿色公路发展的根本动力;将绿色理念融入公路建设的全生命周期的前提,是因地制宜的前期规划布局研究,也是合理选择适宜绿色公路技术的基础。     

Multi-criteria optimization of traffic signals: Mobility,safety, and environment

Two-dimensional multi-objective optimizations have been used for decades for the problems in traffic engineering although only few times so far in the optimization of signal timings. While the other engineering and science disciplines have utilized visualization of 3-dimensional Pareto fronts in the optimization studies, we have not seen many of those concepts applied to traffic signal optimization problems. To bridge the gap in the existing knowledge this study presents a methodology where 3-dimensional Pareto Fronts of signal timings, which are expressed through mobility, (surrogate) safety, and environmental factors, are optimized by use of an evolutionary algorithm. The study uses a segment of 5 signalized intersections in West Valley City, Utah, to test signal timings which provide a balance between mobility, safety and environment. In addition, a set of previous developed signal timing scenarios, including some of the Connected Vehicle technologies such as GLOSA, were conducted to evaluate the quality of the 3-dimensional Pareto front solutions. The results show success of 3-dimensinal Pareto fronts moving towards optimality. The resulting signal timing plans do not show large differences between themselves but all improve on the signal timings from the field, significantly. The commonly used optimization of standard single-objective functions shows robust solutions. The new set of Connected Vehicle technologies also shows promising benefits, especially in the area of reducing inter-vehicular friction. The resulting timing plans from two optimization sets (constrained and unconstrained) show that environmental and safe signal timings coincide but somewhat contradict mobility. Further research is needed to apply similar concepts on a variety of networks and traffic conditions before generalizing findings.     

基于模糊层次的铁路混装货物装运安全评价研究

随着客户运输需求的多样化升级,采用铁路混装货物装运模式在提升铁路运输效率、吸引多样货源等方面相较于单一品名装运显示出一定的优越性,同时混装货物装运面临的安全压力相较于单一品名装运出现骤增。为保障铁路混装货物装运安全,在阐述混装货物装运特点及安全控制要点的基础上,从"人防""物防""技防"3方面构建混装货物装运安全评价指标体系,采用层次分析法确定各指标权重,并利用模糊综合评价法对铁路混装货物装运安全进行评价,通过实例验证该评价方法的实用性及有效性,为铁路混装货物装运安全评价提供依据。     

基于模糊综合评价法的城市综合管廊结构健康评价方法研究

为解决城市综合管廊结构健康状况评估结果无法量化和指导运维的问题，通过分析模糊综合评价理论在交通隧道结构健康评价方法研究中的应用，依照类比思想，利用该理论建立城市综合管廊结构健康状况评价体系。首先，依据有关养护规定和调研结果，基于不同需求分别建立管廊结构的本体完好状况和本体结构状况评价指标体系； 其次，以交通隧道和综合管廊养护经验为基础，划分各指标的分级判定标准； 然后，采用层次分析法，计算评价指标的权重分配； 最后，采用柯西分布型隶属函数和矩阵型隶属函数确定各指标的隶属度，建立一级和二级模糊综合评价模型，赋予评价向量中各评语相应分值，将评价向量单值化，判定管廊结构健康状况。采用所提出的评价方法应用于实际工程，所得评价结果与经验评判得到的结果相同。