清代中国嘉庆年间之东亚的朝贡国与互市国

作为传统的中华帝国,清政府一直保持着与东亚诸国的朝贡关系.但是嘉庆年间确立了新的朝贡体制,将之前的朝贡国家与之后开始贸易交往的国家区分开.东亚的朝鲜和琉球一直都是中国的朝贡国.由于日本施行闭关锁国政策,所以不是中国的朝贡国,但清朝嘉庆年间,日本被中国视作朝贡国中的贸易互市国加以对待.     

Short-Term Highway Traffic State Prediction Using Structural State Space Models

This research proposes a short-term highway traffic state prediction method based on a structural state space model, with the intention to provide a robust approach for obtaining accurate forecasts of traffic state under both recurring and non-recurring conditions. True traffic state is decomposed to three components, namely, regular traffic pattern, structural deviation, and random fluctuation. Particularly, the structural deviation term reflects the change of true traffic state from regular (historical) pattern, due to unexpected capacity reduction and/or demand variations. A polynomial trend is adopted to describe the temporal evolution of structural deviations across different time intervals. We derive an analytical form of structural deviations in a single bottleneck case based on cumulative flow count diagrams. The proposed model is incorporated in a Kalman filtering-based algorithmic framework, together with an adaptive scheme for determining the variances of random errors. A set of numerical experiments was conducted on two test beds in the northern Taiwan highway network. Experimental results show that the proposed approach is particularly superior to an ordinary Kalman filtering method presented in the literature under non-recurring conditions, highlighting the advantage of combining both the polynomial trend model and historical pattern into the proposed short-term traffic state prediction approach.     

道岔状态不良风险的故障树分析及控制研究

针对道岔状态不良,通过建立涵盖道岔全生命周期的故障树模型,计算最小割集、顶事件概率和基本事件的临界重要度,对道岔状态不良进行定量风险分析.围绕风险控制的消除、预防、减轻后果、事故应急4个方面,研究提出8项针对性的风险控制措施,并建立控制措施有效性评价矩阵,来评价措施有效性.结果表明,道岔状态不良属于风险程度较高的危害事...