基于随机介质理论的土体融沉预测及其参数敏感性分析

为预测人工冻结法施工引起的地表融沉,以广州某地铁为研究背景,考虑土体压力的变化,运用随机介质理论建立马蹄形水平冻结融沉计算模型,分析对地表融沉有影响的各参数的敏感性。由计算结果得出,水平冻结引起的地表竖向融沉呈正态分布,在隧道中心处达到最大值;参数敏感性分析得出各参数敏感度从大到小依次为冻结壁厚度、土体主要影响角正切值、隧道埋深、融化与压密系数;最大竖向融沉随着冻结壁厚度、土体主要影响角正切值、融化与压缩系数的增大而增大,随着隧道埋深的增大而减小。     

Modeling the evolutions of day‐to‐day route choice and year‐to‐year ATIS adoption with stochastic user equilibrium

Suppose that in an urban transportation network there is a specific advanced traveler information system (ATIS) which acts for reducing the drivers' travel time uncertainty through provision of pre‐trip route information. Because of the imperfect information provided, some travelers are not in compliance with the ATIS advice although equipped with the device. We thus divide all travelers into three groups, one group unequipped with ATIS, another group equipped and in compliance with ATIS advice and the third group equipped but without compliance with the advice. Each traveler makes route choice in a logit‐based manner and a stochastic user equilibrium with multiple user classes is reached for every day. In this paper, we propose a model to investigate the evolutions of daily path travel time, daily ATIS compliance rate and yearly ATIS adoption, in which the equilibrium for every day's route choice is kept. The stability of the evolution model is initially analyzed. Numerical results obtained from a test network are presented for demonstrating the model's ability in depicting the day‐to‐day and year‐to‐year evolutions.     

一种基于多元Probit模型的随机网络配流加载算法

为了改善基于Logit模型的随机网络配流加载算法的两个不足之处,本文提出了基于正态分布的Probit模型的随机网络配流算法。假设路段的广义交通时间服从正态分布,然后用蒙特卡洛模拟法对提出的算法进行求解。最后,用一个简单的交通网络例子对提出的算法进行验证分析。在算法求解过程中,运用Matlab对路段广义交通时间随机抽样,再对网络进行全有全无分配,将交通流量分配到起终点间的每一O-D对的最短路径上。应用Probit模型进行配流加载,其路径选择概率更接近实际更加合理,是一种值得推广的交通配流加载模型。     

水翼艇纵向运动多变量随机最优控制仿真

基于随机控制理论，针对全浸式水翼艇的多变量随机控制方法进行探讨，并着重分析水翼艇的纵向运动姿态的随机最优控制。首先，依据动力学原理对其运动方程的建立和线性化进行了推导。其次，利用线性卡尔曼滤波器对其纵向运动姿态进行估计，依据LOG性能指标构造了最优控制规律。通过施加控制前后状态的比较，可以看出，应用随机最优控制的方法，对水翼艇的纵向运动进行控制取得了良好的效果。     

Global Solutions and Exponential Stability of Stochastic Functional Differential Equations with Infinite Delay

This paper proves that, under the local Lipschitz condition, the stochastic functional differential equations with infinite delay have global solutions without the linear growth condition. Furthermore, the pth moment exponential stability conditions are given. Finally, one example is presented to illustrate our theory.     

The Hamilton–Jacobi partial differential equation and the three representations of traffic flow

This paper applies the theory of Hamilton–Jacobi partial differential equations to the case of first-order traffic flow models. The traffic flow surface is analyzed with respect to the three 2-dimensional coordinate systems arising in the space of vehicle number, time and distance. In each case, the solution to the initial and boundary value problems are presented. Explicit solution methods and examples are shown for the triangular flow-density diagram case. This unveils new models and shows how a number of existing models are cast as special cases.     

Stochastic dynamic switching in fixed and flexible transit services as market entry-exit real options

The first analytical stochastic and dynamic model for optimizing transit service switching is proposed for “smart transit” applications and for operating shared autonomous transit fleets. The model assumes a region that requires many-to-one last mile transit service either with fixed-route buses or flexible-route, on-demand buses. The demand density evolves continuously over time as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The optimal policy is determined by solving the switching problem as a market entry and exit real options model. Analysis using the model on a benchmark computational example illustrates the presence of a hysteresis effect, an indifference band that is sensitive to transportation system state and demand parameters, as well as the presence of switching thresholds that exhibit asymmetric sensitivities to transportation system conditions. The proposed policy is computationally compared in a 24-hour simulation to a “perfect information” set of decisions and a myopic policy that has been dominant in the flexible transit literature, with results that suggest the proposed policy can reduce by up to 72% of the excess cost in the myopic policy. Computational experiments of the “modular vehicle” policy demonstrate the existence of an option premium for having flexibility to switch between two vehicle sizes.     

The economic speed of an oceangoing vessel in a dynamic setting

The optimal (economic) speed of oceangoing vessels has become of increased importance due to the combined effect of low freight rates and volatile bunker prices. We examine the problem for vessels operating in the spot market in a tramp mode. In the case of known freight rates between origin destination combinations, a dynamic programming formulation can be applied to determine both the optimal speed and the optimal voyage sequence. Analogous results are derived for random freight rates of known distributions. In the case of independent rates the economic speed depends on fuel price and the expected freight rate, but is independent of the revenue of the particular voyage. For freight rates that depend on a state of the market Markovian random variable, economic speed depends on the market state as well, with increased speed corresponding to good states of the market. The dynamic programming equations in our models differ from those of Markovian decision processes so we develop modifications of standard solution methods, and apply them to small examples.     

浅埋隧道施工引起的纵向地层移动与变形

应用随机介质理论分析浅埋隧道开挖施工引起的上覆地层纵向移动与变形,将隧道围岩看作一种随机介质,将隧道开挖所引起的上覆岩土体的移动看作一随机过程,从单元开挖引起的地层下沉入手,根据岩土体不可压缩的假定,得到了单元岩土体开挖引起的纵向地层水平移动公式,并据此推导了浅埋隧道开挖施工引起的沿隧道纵向上覆地层下沉、水平移动、倾斜、水平变形以及地层弯曲曲率的计算公式,并给出了圆形以及其它复杂形状隧道开挖横断面的具体计算方法。结果表明:随机介质理论用于计算由于浅埋隧道开挖引起的纵向上覆地层的移动与变形效果良好。