Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China

To improve predictive accuracy, new hybrid models are proposed for container throughput forecasting based on wavelet transforms and data characteristic analysis (DCA) within a decomposition-ensemble methodology. Because of the complexity and nonlinearity of the time series of container throughputs at ports, the methodology decomposes the original time series into several components, which are rather simpler sub-sequences. Consequently, difficult forecasting tasks are simplified into a number of relatively easier subtasks. In this way, the proposed hybrid models can improve the accuracy of forecasting significantly. In the methodology, four main steps are involved: data decomposition, component reconstruction based on the DCA, individual prediction for each reconstructed component, and ensemble prediction as the final output. An empirical analysis was conducted for illustration and verification purposes by using time series of container throughputs at three main ports in Bohai Rim, China. The results suggest that the proposed hybrid models are able to forecast better than do other benchmark models. Forecasting may facilitate effective real-time decision making for strategic management and policy drafting. Predictions of container throughput can help port managers make tactical and operational decisions, such as operations planning in ports, the scheduling of port equipment, and route optimization.     

The impact of dry port operations on container seaports competitiveness

The concepts of intermodal logistics and distribution networks have made integration of the inland freight distribution system essential for an efficient container seaport system. Inland components, such as dry ports, which exist within the seaport system, have become important in shaping the performance and competitive strategies of container seaports. Owing to the importance of interdependence between dry ports and container seaports, this paper aims to investigate the impact of dry port operations on container seaport competitiveness. It conducted an empirical study in Malaysia through 120 online surveys to key stakeholders of dry ports, including freight forwarders, shippers, seaports, rail operator, shipping lines, and haulers. The data collected were analysed using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). The results from EFA show that Malaysian dry port operations have impacts on seaport competitiveness. These include enhancing seaport performance, increasing service variations for seaports, improving seaport-hinterland proximity, increasing seaport trade volume, and enhancing seaport capacity.     

无人船在海洋调查领域的应用分析与思考

基于无人船机动灵活、安全性高、可在常规调查平台受限的水域作业的特点,将其引入海洋调查领域,作为一种新型调查平台使用。海洋调查无人船主要用于海洋环境观测和海底探测,目前其发展的关键在于如何降低平台对任务载荷的扰动,保证循线精度,提高通信系统的可靠性。根据水深、水动力和水底地形地貌等条件,将无人船工作环境分为岛礁区、滨海区、浅海区、半深海区和深海区5类;结合作业环境,以无人船的体量和吃水深度为依据,建议将其分为微型平台、小型平台、中型平台、大型平台和超大型平台,并对适配任务载荷作出分析。     

基于统计能量法的船舶板架结构简化建模方法研究

统计能量法是解决复杂结构高频动力学问题的主要方法之一,限于其分析特性,过于细致化的建模会引发其计算量大、计算精度低等问题。针对典型的船体板架结构,提出基于统计能量法的船体板架结构简化建模方法,并结合数值计算加以验证。根据实际需求,提出简化建模的等效原则,给出多平板的简化建模方法;通过研究给出周期加筋板的简化建模方法;提出一种双层底结构的简化建模方法,并进行误差分析。     

江中型LNG加注趸船旁靠系泊作业的安全性

内河LNG加注趸船是我国提出并得到实际应用的一种新船型,其适用于长江、珠江等季节水位高差变化较大的天然性水域。本文采用水动力数值分析方法,针对一艘典型的江中型LNG加注趸船,研究分析了三种不同吨级LNG动力船旁靠系泊加注趸船进行补给作业时,在风、浪、流载荷联合作用下,两船旁靠系泊水动力安全问题,并给出了三种不同吨级LNG动力船旁靠作业的限制环境条件建议值。研究结论可为实际工程操作提供有益参考。     

基于序贯代理模型的转子系统频响特性区间分析方法

在转子系统的频率响应分析中,不确定性广泛存在,并且对分析结果有较大的影响。本文提出了一种面向含区间不确定性转子系统频响分析的序贯代理模型方法。基于区间数学以及转子动力学理论,本文首先建立了含区间参数转子系统频响的控制方程。基于传统的静态代理模型提出了面向转子系统区间分析的序贯代理模型方法。该方法首先通过叫少量的样本点构造粗糙代理模型,再提出了两个指标函数进行下一阶段的选点。重复该过程,直到满足收敛条件,最终可以得到转子系统频率响应的精细代理模型,进而得到区间边界。和传统的区间分析方法相比,该方法精度高,适合非线性问题。     

基于高频感应加热的船用钢板材弯曲成形

在船舶建造过程中,高频感应加热是实现船体板材高效高精度弯曲成形的重要方法。本文首先采用25KW新型高频感应加热设备,进行不同感应加热过程及工艺的实验,得到典型弯曲形式的船体外板（马鞍型和帆型）。同时,采用三坐标定位仪进行面外弯曲变形的测量和曲面重构,得到实验板材面外弯曲变形的分布和数值。通过热-弹-塑性有限元分析与弹性有限元分析两种方法,计算预测板材在高频感应加热作用下的面外弯曲变形;两种数值方法预测的板材面外弯曲变形趋势和数值与测量结果比较吻合,且在弹性有限元分析中,计算机资源消耗少,计算结果精度高。     

海上石油平台35千伏电缆终端故障的排查与修复

本文介绍了一起利用配电盘带电体超声波检测,结合非接触定位技术,快速排查并修复35kV电缆终端缺陷的案例。通过停电检验和内部刨解查证,对终端缺陷原因进行详细分析,确定该终端缺陷是由于电缆终端制作工艺和电缆安装存在问题所致,同时对缺陷处修理方法进行详解。本文最后对防范35kV电缆终端发生故障提出了建议。     

新型电力推进车客渡船设计分析

为满足长江车客渡运业对安全、环保、节能减排、车辆重载及经济性的发展需求,通过主尺度、船型、阻力推进、操纵性、船体结构等方面的数值分析与性能优化,结合电力推进系统的系统特性、系统架构、储能装置、变速发电等关键技术分析,设计了综合经济技术优良的新型电力推进车客渡船,实现了船舶重载能力和载重量提高而空载重量降低,操纵性能优化,营运安全性更高,节能减排效果明显。新型电力推进车客渡船设计与优化分析可为电力推进内河车客渡船的设计提供一定参考。     

径流式枢纽改扩建船闸确定最低通航水位的方法

低水头径流式电站往往为不调节水库。为控制库区淹没线,洪水期常采用预泄腾空库容的方式运行,受洪水流量及持续时间不同的影响,不同时期枢纽运行的低水位变化较大,给确定船闸最低通航水位带来了复杂性。以湘江大源渡航电枢纽新建的二线船闸工程为例,采用综合历时曲线法和瞬时水位持续时间、次数进行分析,结合河段的通航实际情况,确定船闸最低通航水位,可为类似径流式枢纽确定船闸最低通航水位提供借鉴。