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The need for acquiring the current-year traffic data is a problem for transport planners since such data may not be available
for on-going transport studies. A method is proposed in this paper to predict hourly traffic flows up to and into the near
future, using historical data collected from the Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census (ATC). Two parametric and two non-parametric
models have been employed and evaluated in this study. The results show that the non-parametric models (Non-Parametric Regression
(NPR) and Gaussian Maximum Likelihood (GML)) were more promising for predicting hourly traffic flows at the selected ATC station.
Further analysis encompassing 87 ATC stations revealed that the NPR is likely to react to unexpected changes more effectively
than the GML method, while the GML model performs better under steady traffic flows. Taking into consideration the dynamic
nature of the common traffic patterns in Hong Kong and the advantages/disadvantages of the various models, the NPR model is
recommended for predicting the hourly traffic flows in that region. 相似文献
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Estimation/updating of Origin–Destination (OD) flows and other traffic state parameters is a classical, widely adopted procedure in transport engineering, both in off-line and in on-line contexts. Notwithstanding numerous approaches proposed in the literature, there is still room for considerable improvements, also leveraging the unprecedented opportunity offered by information and communication technologies and big data. A key issue relates to the unobservability of OD flows in real networks – except from closed highway systems – thus leading to inherent difficulties in measuring performance of OD flows estimation/updating methods and algorithms. Starting from these premises, the paper proposes a common evaluation and benchmarking framework, providing a synthetic test bed, which enables implementation and comparison of OD estimation/updating algorithms and methodologies under “standardized” conditions. The framework, implemented in a platform available to interested parties upon request, has been flexibly designed and allows comparing a variety of approaches under various settings and conditions. Specifically, the structure and the key features of the framework are presented, along with a detailed experimental design for the application of different dynamic OD flow estimation algorithms. By way of example, applications to both off-line/planning and on-line algorithms are presented, together with a demonstration of the extensibility of the presented framework to accommodate additional data sources. 相似文献
126.
线路区段牵引定数不统一是影响列车编组计划制定的重要因素,导致了列车在部分区段欠轴运行,在换重站或技术站进行补减轴作业.本文重点论述了减重方向列车编组方案的优化问题,提出了按充分条件将各种方案归类的方法,从而减少方案成本的对比次数,能快速获得最优的运送方案.在方案成本构成的分析过程中,充分考虑了各影响因素,将牵引机车费用看作与里程相关的可变成本,将欠轴列车浪费的机车和线路能力转化为惩罚费用,并考虑列车开行频率对方案费用的影响,最后从全网络的角度建立减重方向减轴列车编组优化模型.该模型既可获得合理的减重站,又能依据车流量关系选择优化的减轴编组方式,实例验证了模型的有效性. 相似文献
127.
朱建国 《筑路机械与施工机械化》2012,29(6):74-76
以兰新铁路乌鲁木齐河特大桥跨既有铁路连续梁的施工为例,阐述了支架法分段现浇施工方案及其施工组织,并详细介绍支架的设计方案、施工方法、应急预案等。通过理论分析以及现场应用的成功证明,施工过程安全可靠、可控,采用支架法分段现浇施工技术完成混凝土连续梁桥的施工,技术可行,可为同类工程的施工组织提供参考。 相似文献
128.
This paper presents the joint optimization of signal setting parameters and dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) traffic assignment for the congested urban road network. The simulation-based approach is employed to obtain the DUE condition for the case of multiple-origin multiple-destination traffic flows. The dynamic traffic assignment simulation program (DTASP), developed in C language is used to assign the traffic dynamically on the road network, whereas method of successive averages (MSA) is modified and used to arrive at the DUE condition. The artificial intelligence technique of genetic algorithms (GAs) is applied to obtain the optimal signal setting parameters and path flow distribution factor for DUE condition. The methodology developed in such a way that joint optimization of signal setting parameters with DUE is obtained. The proposed method is applied to the real network data of Fort Area of Mumbai city comprising of 17 nodes and 56 unidirectional links with 72 Origin–Destination pairs, where all the 17 nodes are signalized intersections. The traffic flow condition for the optimized signal setting parameters is considerably improved compared to the existing signal settings. The results prove that the GA is an effective technique to solve the joint optimization problem for the real network data. 相似文献
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Frank Southworth Bruce E. Peterson 《Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies》2000,8(1-6)
The authors describe the development and application of a single, integrated digital representation of a multimodal and transcontinental freight transportation network. The network was constructed to support the simulation of some five million origin to destination freight shipments reported as part of the 1997 United States Commodity Flow Survey. The paper focuses on the routing of the tens of thousands of intermodal freight movements reported in this survey. Routings involve different combinations of truck, rail and water transportation. Geographic information systems (GIS) technology was invaluable in the cost-effective construction and maintenance of this network and in the subsequent validation of mode sequences and route selections. However, computationally efficient routing of intermodal freight shipments was found to be most efficiently accomplished outside the GIS. Selection of appropriate intermodal routes required procedures for linking freight origins and destinations to the transportation network, procedures for modeling intermodal terminal transfers and inter-carrier interlining practices, and a procedure for generating multimodal impedance functions to reflect the relative costs of alternative, survey reported mode sequences. 相似文献