国外海上浮动核电站政策和标准规范

在对国外海上浮动核电站相关的国际法律法规和标准规范研究现状的基础上,重点分析俄罗斯船级社和俄罗斯监察局海上浮动核电站相关标准规范,以为我国开展海上浮动核电站建设所需的标准规范研究提供参考与借鉴。     

Spatiotemporal traffic forecasting: review and proposed directions

This paper systematically reviews studies that forecast short-term traffic conditions using spatial dependence between links. We extract and synthesise 130 research papers, considering two perspectives: (1) methodological framework and (2) methods for capturing spatial information. Spatial information boosts the accuracy of prediction, particularly in congested traffic regimes and for longer horizons. Machine learning methods, which have attracted more attention in recent years, outperform the naïve statistical methods such as historical average and exponential smoothing. However, there is no guarantee of superiority when machine learning methods are compared with advanced statistical methods such as spatiotemporal autoregressive integrated moving average. As for the spatial dependency detection, a large gulf exists between the realistic spatial dependence of traffic links on a real network and the studied networks as follows: (1) studies capture spatial dependency of either adjacent or distant upstream and downstream links with the study link, (2) the spatially relevant links are selected either by prejudgment or by correlation-coefficient analysis, and (3) studies develop forecasting methods in a corridor test sample, where all links are connected sequentially together, assume a similarity between the behaviour of both parallel and adjacent links, and overlook the competitive nature of traffic links.     

In search of surrogate safety indicators for vulnerable road users: a review of surrogate safety indicators

Surrogate indicators are meant to be alternatives or complements of safety analyses based on accident records. These indicators are used to study critical traffic events that occur more frequently, making such incidents easier to analyse. This article provides an overview of existing surrogate indicators and specifically focuses on their merit for the analyses of vulnerable road users and the extent to which they have been validated by previous research. Each indicator is evaluated based on its ability to consider the collision risk, which can be further divided into the initial conditions of an event, the magnitude of any evasive action and the injury risk in any traffic event. The results show that various indicators and their combinations can reflect different aspects of any traffic event. However, no existing indicator seems to capture all aspects. Various studies have also focused on the validity of different indicators. However, due to the use of diverse approaches to validation, the large difference in how many locations were investigated and variations in the duration of observation at each location, it is difficult to compare and discuss the validity of the different surrogate safety indicators. Since no current indicator can properly reflect all the important aspects underlined in this article, the authors suggest that the choice of a suitable indicator in future surrogate safety studies should be made with considerations of the context-dependent suitability of the respective indicator.     

Predicting queue variability to enable analysis of overload risk

ABSTRACT

Predicting the risk of traffic demands and delays exceeding critical limits at road junctions, airports, hospitals, etc., requires knowing how both mean and variance of queue size vary over time. Microscopic simulation can explore variability but is computationally demanding and gives only sample results. A computationally efficient approximation to the mean is used in many modelling tools, but only empirical extensions for variance in particular situations have been available. The paper derives theoretical formulae for time-dependent and equilibrium variance, believed to be novel and to apply generally to queues covered by the Pollaczek–Khinchin mean formula, and offering possible structural insights. These are applied in an extended approximation giving mutually consistent mean and variance estimates with improved accuracy. Tests on oversaturated peak demand cases are compared with Markov probabilistic simulation, demonstrating accuracy (R^2?>?0.99) for typical random, priority-like (M/M/1) and traffic-signal-like (M/D/1) queues. Implications for risk analysis, planning and policy are considered.     

A Pareto-improving hybrid rationing and pricing policy with multiclass network equilibria

This paper extends the work on Pareto-improving hybrid rationing and pricing policy for general road networks by considering heterogeneous users with different values of time. Mathematical programming models are proposed to find a multiclass Pareto-improving pure road space rationing scheme (MPI-PR) and multiclass hybrid rationing and pricing schemes (MHPI and MHPI-S). A numerical example with a multimodal network is provided for comparing both the efficiency and equity of the three proposed policies. We discover that MHPI-S can achieve the largest reduction in total system delay, MHPI can induce the least spatial inequity and MHPI-S is a progressive policy which is appealing to policy makers. Furthermore, numerical results reveal that different classes of users react differently to the same hybrid policies and multiclass Pareto-improving hybrid schemes yield less delay reduction when compared to their single-class counterparts.     

Prediction of travel time variability for cost-benefit analysis

Unreliable travel times cause substantial costs to travelers. Nevertheless, they are often not taken into account in cost-benefit analyses (CBA), or only in very rough ways. This paper aims at providing simple rules to predict variability, based on travel time data from Dutch highways. Two different concepts of travel time variability are used, which differ in their assumptions on information availability to drivers. The first measure is based on the assumption that, for a given road link and given time of day, the expected travel time is constant across all working days (rough information: RI). In the second case, expected travel times are assumed to reflect day-specific factors such as weather conditions or weekdays (fine information: FI). For both definitions of variability, we find that the mean travel time is a good predictor. On average, longer delays are associated with higher variability. However, the derivative of variability with respect to delays is decreasing in delays. It can be shown that this result relates to differences in the relative shares of observed traffic ‘regimes’ (free-flow, congested, hyper-congested) in the mean delay. For most CBAs, no information on the relative shares of the traffic regimes is available. A non-linear model based on mean travel times can then be used as an approximation.     

Surface street traffic volume and single-family house price

This study investigates the relationship between surface street traffic volume and single-family house prices in a relatively small city in the US. Hedonic price models are estimated using data from 9670 transactions that occurred between January 1998 and March 2011. It is discovered that parcels fronting or adjacent to a high-traffic street sell, on average, at an 8.1% discount compared to similar parcels that are not so situated. Restricting the analysis to parcels on or adjacent to a high-traffic street, house price and traffic volume are found to be negatively related; a doubling of volume from any particular traffic count, ceteris paribus, reduces selling price by an average of 2.1%.     

Traffic noise abatement: How different pavements, vehicle speeds and traffic densities affect annoyance levels

In this paper, annoyance ratings from traffic noise recorded on cobblestones, dense asphalt, and open asphalt rubber pavements are assessed with regard to car speeds and traffic densities. It was found that cobblestones pavements are the most annoying; also while open asphalt rubber pavement imposes less annoyance than dense asphalt it is not significantly different. Higher car speeds always lead to greater annoyance, as does higher traffic densities. LAeq and LAmax correlate well with annoyance, but loudness is the best predictor. Roughness and sharpness exhibit inconsistent interactions.     

Evaluating the effects of green port policy: Case study of Kaohsiung harbor in Taiwan

The paper evaluates the effectiveness of strategies designed to reduce these pollutants in port areas, based on a newly developed assessment model to calculate emissions. The case study found that the strategy of reducing the ship’s speed to 12 knots is most effective in cutting fuel consumption and costs, as well as emissions. Adopting an onshore power supply system could reduce CO₂ emission by 57.16% and PM by 39.4%. By adopting the strategies of both reduced speed and cold ironing emissions control, a reduction in emissions of 71% to 91% can be achieved with a 20 nautical mile reduced speed zone. Therefore, the goals of reductions in emissions to improve port areas air quality could be achieved through adopting a green port policy in the future.     

道路交通事故分析发展研究

近些年,我国交通事故量一直居高不下,而事故发生时车辆运行速度是分析事故原因、认定事故责任的重要内容,涉及保险理赔、法院审判等各个环节。目前分析事故原因,进行事故再现的主要途径是委托具有相关资质的事故鉴定机构进行速度重建,使用的方法主要有基于经验公式的事故重建、基于视频图像技术的事故重建、基于车载记录数据的事故重建和基于模拟软件的事故重建。文章主要介绍了交通事故分析的基本方法和发展方向。